PETROTAL CORP. 2P reserves value per share of USD$1.80 (CAD$2.39) (GBP1.41)
2P estimated ultimate recovery now over 117 million barrels
1P and 2P reserves replacement ratios of 150% and 167%, respectively
1P and 2P reserve increases of 6% and 4%, respectively
2P reserve life of 19 years
2P after tax NPV-10 value increased 9% since year-end 2022 to more than USD$1.6 billion
Calgary, Alberta and Houston, Texas--(Newsfile Corp. - February 12, 2024) - PetroTal Corp. (TSX: TAL) (AIM: PTAL) (OTCQX: PTALF) ("PetroTal" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the results of its 2023 year-end reserve evaluation (the "NSAI Report") by Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. ("NSAI") for the Bretana oil field, operated 100% by PetroTal. All currency amounts are in United States dollars (unless otherwise stated) and comparisons refer to equivalent information as at December 31, 2022. All figures subject to rounding differences.
Highlights:
- For 1P and 2P (each as defined below) categories respectively, increases of 13% and 9% to Net Present Value (discounted at 10% after tax ("NPV-10 AT")), and per share values to US$0.97/share (CAD$1.29/share) and US$1.80/share (CAD$2.39/share);
- Increases in reserve categories:
| Category | 2023 reserves | 2023 NPV-10 after tax | 2023 NPV-10 after tax/bbl |
| mmbbls | $ billion | $/bbl | |
| Proved ("1P") | 48 (+6%) | $0.9 | $18.50 |
| Probable ("2P") | 100 (+4%) | $1.6 | $16.39 |
| Possible ("3P") | 200 (+19%) | $2.5 | $12.54 |
- Strong results for various key year-end 2023 reserve-based metrics:
- 2023 reserves life index for 1P and 2P reserves, is approximately 9 and 19 years, respectively, using the average 2023 production run rate of 14,248 barrels ("bbls") of oil per day ("bopd");
- Robust 2023 production reserves replacement ratios of 150% and 167% for 1P and 2P reserves, respectively;
- Original Oil in Place ("OOIP") largely flat from 2022 levels. Now at 326, 442, and 595 million bbls ("mmbbls"), respectively, for the 1P, 2P and 3P cases;
- Increased 1P and 2P total booked well counts in 2023 by 2 and 3 wells, to 23 and 32 wells, respectively. Total 3P well count remains at 36; and,
- 2P recovery factor continued to increase in 2023 to 26% (from 24% at year-end 2022).
- 2023 Proved Developed Producing ("PDP") reserves increased 18% to 29 mmbbls, representing 60% of 1P reserves, reflecting an attractive ratio of base production to low risk drilling proved undeveloped ("PUD") targets;
- 2P Future Development Capital ("FDC") increased 36% to $551 million from year-end 2022 reflecting an additional 3 wells booked at year-end 2023, erosion control costs, and associated water disposal capacity and facilities needed to accommodate anticipated flush and run rate production volumes; and,
- For the first time since the Company's inception, operating costs, in the current 2023 year ended reserve report do not include any diluent, reflecting the Company's commercial efforts to find new ways to reduce operating costs.
Manuel Pablo Zuniga-Pflucker, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"The PetroTal team is committed to increasing value for all stakeholders from Bretana's oil recovery enhancement. It is noteworthy that our market capitalization is currently at a discount to our PDP after tax NPV-10 valuation even as the Company continues to make significant shareholder distributions and remains debt free.
Reserves attributed to the Bretana oil field have grown tremendously since 2017. Our drilling success combined with the field's strong natural aquifer support that allows for recovery factors beyond 30% has underpinned a world class oil operation that is expected to deliver material free cash flow for the next 20 years. The field's 2P and 3P reserves of 100 and 200 million barrels, respectively, will be extracted with one of the smallest operational footprints in the world, sustainable for years to come."
2023 Year-end Reserves Summary
The summary below sets forth PetroTal's reserves as at December 31, 2023, as presented in the reserves report prepared by NSAI, an independent qualified reserves evaluator. The figures in the following tables have been prepared in accordance with the standards contained in the most recent publication of the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (the "COGEH") and the reserve definitions contained in National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101"). In addition to the summary information disclosed in this announcement, more detailed information will be included in PetroTal's annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2023 (the "AIF") to be filed on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca) and posted on PetroTal's website (www.petrotal-corp.com) in March 2024.
Five Year Crude Oil Price Forecast - NSAI Report
| Year-End Forecast: | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 5 Yr Avg |
| Brent (USD$/bbl) - January 1, 2024 | $78.00 | $79.18 | $80.36 | $81.79 | $83.41 | $80.55 |
| Brent (USD$/bbl) - January 1, 2023 | $82.69 | $81.03 | $81.39 | $82.65 | $84.29 | $82.41 |
The oil price projections used by NSAI are based upon an average of December 31, 2023 and 2022 forecasts of Brent Crude futures prices prepared by three qualified reserves evaluators: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. and Sproule Associates Limited. The five year average for the NSAI Report reflects an average Brent oil price of $80.55, which as at the time of this press release, is approximately $2/bbl higher than current market Brent prices.
Year-End Crude Oil Reserves (mmbbls)
| CATEGORY | 2023 | 2022 | Change |
| Proved | |||
| Developed Producing | 28.5 | 24.1 | +18% |
| Undeveloped | 19.5 | 21.4 | -9% |
| Total Proved | 48.0 | 45.4 | +6% |
| Probable | 52.2 | 51.3 | +2% |
| Total Proved plus Probable | 100.2 | 96.7 | +4% |
| Possible | 99.4 | 71.6 | +39% |
| Total Proved plus Probable & Possible | 199.6 | 168.3 | +19% |
Represents gross and net bbls since PetroTal has a 100% working interest and a 100% net revenue interest in these properties. Royalties are paid from sales proceeds.
Year-End Net Present Value at 10% - Before Tax ($ millions)
| CATEGORY | 2023 | 2022 | Change |
| Proved | |||
| Developed Producing | $748 | $635 | +18% |
| Undeveloped | $623 | $529 | +18% |
| Total Proved | $1,371 | $1,164 | +18% |
| Probable | $1,169 | $1,124 | +4% |
| Total Proved plus Probable | $2,540 | $2,288 | +11% |
| Possible | $1,346 | $1,485 | -9% |
| Total Proved plus Probable & Possible | $3,886 | $3,773 | +3% |
Year-End Net Present Value at 10% - After Tax ($ millions)
| CATEGORY | 2023 | 2022 | Change |
| Proved | |||
| Developed Producing | $487 | $446 | +9% |
| Undeveloped | $401 | $339 | +18% |
| Total Proved | $888 | $784 | +13% |
| Probable | $751 | $724 | +4% |
| Total Proved plus Probable | $1,639 | $1,509 | +9% |
| Possible | $869 | $959 | -9% |
| Total Proved plus Probable & Possible | $2,508 | $2,468 | +2% |
Forecast Revenues and Costs(1-5) ($ millions)
| Undiscounted | Undiscounted | Undiscounted | Undiscounted | Undiscounted | Discounted | Discounted | |
| CATEGORY | Revenue | Royalties | OPEX | FDC | B-Tax Net Revenue | B-Tax Net Revenue | A-Tax Net Revenue |
| Total Proved | $3,729 | $289 | $1,188 | $125 | $2,127 | $1,371 | $888 |
| Total Proved plus Probable | $8,146 | $703 | $1,884 | $551 | $5,009 | $2,540 | $1,639 |
| Total Proved plus Probable & Possible | $18,017 | $1,597 | $4,286 | $768 | $11.367 | $3,886 | $2,508 |
1) Royalties include the 2.5% social fund for all years.
2) Future Development Capital ("FDC") includes abandonment.
3) Net Revenue is defined as revenue less royalties less operating costs less FDC.
4) B-tax and A-tax refer to before and after tax.
5) Discounted values are discounted at 10%.
Year-End Reserves Value per Share - After tax
| CATEGORY | Dec. 31, 2023 | Dec. 31, 2022 | ||||
| Reserves per share | US$/sh | CAD$/sh | GBP/sh | US$/sh | CAD$/sh | GBP/sh |
| Proved | $0.97 | $1.29 | 0.76 | $0.90 | $1.23 | 0.75 |
| Proved plus Probable | $1.80 | $2.39 | 1.41 | $1.75 | $2.29 | 1.45 |
| Proved plus Probable & Possible | $2.75 | $3.65 | 2.16 | $2.86 | $3.47 | 2.37 |
Represents NPV-10 (after tax) divided by the number of common shares issued as of December 31 of each respective year and excludes other balance sheet items at the relevant date. Canadian and GBP share prices are converted at the respective year end foreign exchange conversion rates. Common shares issued at December 31, 2023 total 912.3 million shares and at December 31, 2022 total 862.2 million shares.
Reserve Life Index(1-3)
| CATEGORY | Dec. 31, 2023 | Dec. 31, 2022 |
| Proved | 9.2 years | 10.1 years |
| Proved plus Probable | 19.3 years | 21.5 years |
| Proved plus Probable & Possible | 38.4 years | 37.4 years |
(1) 2023 values based on 2023 year-end reserves divided by average 2023 production of 14,248 bopd.
(2) The license for Block 95 expires in 2041.
(3) 2022 values based on 2022 year-end reserves divided by average 2022 production of 12,200 bopd.
Future Development Costs
The following information sets forth development and abandonment costs deducted in the estimation of PetroTal's future net revenue attributable to the reserve categories noted below:
| CATEGORY ($ million) | 2023 | 2022 | Change |
| Proved | |||
| Developed Producing | $25 | $105 | -76% |
| Undeveloped | $99 | $124 | -20% |
| Total Proved | $125 | $229 | -45% |
| Probable | $426 | $176 | +142% |
| Total Proved plus Probable | $551 | $404 | +36% |
| Possible | $217 | $220 | -1% |
| Total Proved plus Probable & Possible | $768 | $624 | +23% |
| Future development costs ($/bbl) | 2023 | 2022 | Change |
| Proved | $6.40 | $10.69 | -40% |
| Proved plus Probable | $7.69 | $5.56 | +38% |
| Proved plus Probable & Possible | $4.49 | $4.33 | +4% |
The future development and abandonment costs are estimates of the future capital expenditures required to convert the corresponding reserves to PDP reserves. Future development per bbl is determined using the future development capital divided by the 1P, 2P, or 3P reserves, less cumulative PDP.
2023 Year-End Gross Reserves Reconciliation (mmbbls)
| Proved | Proved plus Probable | Proved plus Probable & Possible | |
| December 31, 2022 | 45.4 | 96.7 | 168.3 |
| Technical Revisions | 8.0 | 8.7 | 36.5 |
| Economic Factors | (0.2) | - | - |
| Production | (5.2) | (5.2) | (5.2) |
| December 31, 2023 | 48.0 | 100.2 | 199.6 |
Well 16H and Corporate Production Update
January 2024 average production was 20,450 bopd with an associated Brent price of $80/bbl, ahead of Company guidance on a production and revenue basis.
Well 16H continues to produce at above expected level rates with a 26 day production average of approximately 4,850 bopd as at February 11, 2024 and an estimated investment payback in Q2 2024.
Qualified Person's Statement
Estuardo Alvarez-Calderon, a consultant to the Company, who has over 35 years of relevant experience in the oil industry, has approved the technical information contained in this announcement. Mr. Alvarez-Calderon received a Bachelor of Science degree in Geology from the University of Texas at Austin and is registered on the Texas Board of Professional Geoscientists.
The recovery and reserve estimates provided in this news release are estimates only, and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Actual reserves may eventually prove to be greater than, or less than, the estimates provided herein.
ABOUT PETROTAL
PetroTal is a publicly traded, tri‐quoted (TSX: TAL) (AIM: PTAL) (OTCQX: PTALF) oil and gas development and production Company domiciled in Calgary, Alberta, focused on the development of oil assets in Peru. PetroTal's flagship asset is its 100% working interest in Bretana oil field in Peru's Block 95 where oil production was initiated in June 2018. Since early 2022, PetroTal has been the largest crude oil producer in Peru. The Company's management team has significant experience in developing and exploring for oil in Peru and is led by a Board of Directors that is focused on safely and cost effectively developing the Bretana oil field. It is actively building new initiatives to champion community sensitive energy production, benefiting all stakeholders.
For further information, please see the Company's website at www.petrotal-corp.com, the Company's filed documents at www.sedarplus.ca, or below:
Douglas Urch
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Durch@PetroTal-Corp.com
T: (713) 609-9101
Manolo Zuniga
President and Chief Executive Officer
Mzuniga@PetroTal-Corp.com T: (713) 609-9101
PetroTal Investor Relations
InvestorRelations@PetroTal-Corp.com
Celicourt Communications
Mark Antelme / Jimmy Lea
petrotal@celicourt.uk
T: 44 (0) 20 7770 6424
Strand Hanson Limited (Nominated & Financial Adviser)
Ritchie Balmer / James Spinney / Robert Collins
T: 44 (0) 207 409 3494
Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited (Joint Broker)
Callum Stewart / Simon Mensley / Ashton Clanfield
T: +44 (0) 20 7710 7600
Peel Hunt LLP (Joint Broker)
Richard Crichton / Bhavesh Patel / Georgia Langoulant
T: +44 (0) 20 7418 8900
READER ADVISORIES
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: This press release contains certain statements that may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Such statements relate to possible future events. All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Forward-Looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "plan", "estimate", "potential", "will", "should", "continue", "may", "objective" and similar expressions. Without limitation, this press release contains forward-looking statements pertaining to: PetroTal's business strategy, objectives, and focus; drilling, completions, and other activities and the anticipated costs and results of such activities; PetroTal's anticipated operational results for 2024 including, but not limited to, estimated or anticipated production levels, capital expenditures and drilling plans; plans to deliver strong operational performance and to generate free cash flow and growth; capital requirements; the ability of the Company to achieve drilling success consistent with management's expectations; estimated 2P ultimate recovery to over 117 million bbls; 2023 reserve life index of approximately 9 and 10 years for 1P and 2P, respectively; anticipated future production and revenue; Well 16H expected investment payback and the timing thereof; drilling plans including the timing of drilling, commissioning, and startup and the impact of delays thereon; PetroTal's commitment to increasing shareholder value; five year crude oil price forecast; forecast revenues and costs; 2024 dividends and the timing thereof; the implications of PetroTal's PDP after tax NPV-10 valuation including that it will result in new shareholders receiving a significant quarterly dividend and value from the Company's PUD (and the extent of such value); oil production levels; and the timing of filing the AIF. In addition, statements relating to expected production, reserves, recovery, costs and valuation are deemed to be forward-looking statements as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can be profitably produced in the future. The forward-looking statements are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by the Company, including, but not limited to, expectations and assumptions concerning the ability of existing infrastructure to deliver production and the anticipated capital expenditures associated therewith, the ability to obtain and maintain necessary permits and licenses, the ability of government groups to effectively achieve objectives in respect of reducing social conflict and collaborating towards continued investment in the energy sector, reservoir characteristics, recovery factor, exploration upside, prevailing commodity prices and the actual prices received for PetroTal's products, including pursuant to hedging arrangements, the availability and performance of drilling rigs, facilities, pipelines, other oilfield services and skilled labour, royalty regimes and exchange rates, the impact of inflation on costs, the application of regulatory and licensing requirements, the accuracy of PetroTal's geological interpretation of its drilling and land opportunities, current legislation, receipt of required regulatory approval, the success of future drilling and development activities, the performance of new wells, future river water levels, the Company's growth strategy, general economic conditions and availability of required equipment and services. Although the Company believes that the expectations and assumptions on which the forward-looking statements are based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements because the Company can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general (e.g., operational risks in development, exploration and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses; and health, safety and environmental risks), commodity price volatility, price differentials and the actual prices received for products, exchange rate fluctuations, legal, political and economic instability in Peru, access to transportation routes and markets for the Company's production, changes in legislation affecting the oil and gas industry and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures, changes in the financial landscape both domestically and abroad, including volatility in the stock market and financial system, and wars (including Russia's war in Ukraine, the Israeli- Hamas conflict and the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea). Please refer to the risk factors identified in the Company's annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2022 and management's discussion and analysis for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 which are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release are made as of the date hereof and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.
SHORT-TERM RESULTS: References in this press release to peak production rates, current production rates, average 30-day production rates and other short-term production rates are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons, however such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will commence production and decline thereafter and are not indicative of long term performance or of ultimate recovery. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for PetroTal. The Company cautions that such results should be considered to be preliminary.
OIL REFERENCES: All references to "oil" or "crude oil" production, revenue or sales in this press release mean "heavy crude oil" as defined in NI 51-101. All references to Brent indicate Intercontinental Exchange Brent. Recovery factor percentages include historical production.
RESERVES DISCLOSURE: PetroTal's Statement of Reserves Data and Other Oil and Gas Information on Form 51-101F1 dated effective as at December 31, 2023, which will include further disclosure of PetroTal's oil and gas reserves and other oil and gas information in accordance with NI 51-101 and COGEH forming the basis of this press release, will be included in the AIF, which will be available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.cain March 2024. All reserves values, future net revenue and ancillary information contained in this press release are derived from the NSAI Report unless otherwise noted. Estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same level of confidence as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effect of aggregation. There is no assurance that the forecast price and cost assumptions applied by NSAI in evaluating PetroTal's reserves will be attained and variances could be material. It should not be assumed that the estimates of future net revenues presented in the tables below represent the fair market value of the reserves. The recovery and reserve estimates of PetroTal's oil reserves provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Actual oil reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein. There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of crude oil, reserves and the future cash flows attributed to such reserves. The reserve and associated cash flow information set forth herein are estimates only. Proved reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves. Probable reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves. Proved developed producing reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing or, if shut-in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty. Possible reserves are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (e.g., when compared to the cost of drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production. They must fully meet the requirements of the reserves category (proved, probable, possible) to which they are assigned. Certain terms used in this press release but not defined are defined in NI 51-101, CSA Staff Notice 51-324 - Revised Glossary to NI 51-101, Revised Glossary to NI 51-101, Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("CSA Staff Notice 51-324") and/or the COGEH and, unless the context otherwise requires, shall have the same meanings herein as in NI 51-101, CSA Staff Notice 51-324 and the COGEH, as the case may be.
OIL AND GAS MEASURES: This press release contains metrics commonly used in the oil and natural gas industry which have been prepared by management, such as "OOIP", "development capital", "F&D costs", "net asset value" and "reserves life index". These terms do not have a standardized meaning and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies, and therefore should not be used to make such comparisons. "OOIP" is equivalent to total petroleum initially-in-place ("TPIIP"). TPIIP, as defined in the COGEH, is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated to exist in naturally occurring accumulations. It includes that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations, prior to production, plus those estimated quantities in accumulations yet to be discovered. A portion of the TPIIP is considered undiscovered and there is no certainty that any portion of such undiscovered resources will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of such undiscovered resources. With respect to the portion of the TPIIP that is considered discovered resources, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of such discovered resources. A significant portion of the estimated volumes of TPIIP will never be recovered. "Development capital" means the aggregate exploration and development costs incurred in the financial year on reserves that are categorized as development. Development capital excludes capitalized administration costs. "Finding and development costs" or "F&D costs" are calculated as the sum of field capital plus the change in future development costs for the period divided by the change in reserves that are characterized as development for the period. Finding and development costs take into account reserves revisions during the year on a per bbl basis. The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in the financial year and changes during that year in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year. "Net asset value" is based on present value of future net revenues discounted at 10% before tax on reserves, net of estimated net debt at year end divided by the basic shares outstanding at year end. "Reserve life index" is calculated as total Company interest reserves divided by annual production. These terms have been calculated by management and do not have a standardized meaning and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies, and therefore should not be used to make such comparisons. Management uses these oil and gas metrics for its own performance measurements and to provide shareholders with measures to compare PetroTal's operations over time. Readers are cautioned that the information provided by these metrics, or that can be derived from the metrics presented in this press release, should not be relied upon for investment or other purposes.
FOFI DISCLOSURE: This press release contains future-oriented financial information and financial outlook information (collectively, "FOFI") about NPV-10, future development and abandonment costs and the components thereof, prospective results of operations, production and production capacity, free cash flow, revenue, forecast revenues and costs and the components thereof, five year crude oil Price forecast, shareholder returns (including that shareholders of PetroTal will continue to receive a significant quarterly dividend), and tax rates, all of which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations and qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs. FOFI contained in this press release was approved by management as of the date of this press release and was included for the purpose of providing further information about PetroTal's anticipated future business operations. PetroTal disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any FOFI contained in this press release, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required pursuant to applicable law. Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in this press release should not be used for purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein. All FOFI contained in this press release complies with the requirements of Canadian securities legislation, including NI 51-101. Changes in forecast commodity prices, differences in the timing of capital expenditures, and variances in average production estimates can have a significant impact on the key performance measures included in PetroTal's guidance. The Company's actual results may differ materially from these estimates.
Neither the TSX Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this press release.
The information contained within this announcement is deemed by the Company to constitute inside information as stipulated under the Market Abuse Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 as it forms part of United Kingdom domestic law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, as amended.
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/197579
