PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK PT Bank Central Asia Tbk
9M23 Results
19 October 2023
Agenda
- Macroeconomy & Banking Industry Highlights
- 9M-23Performance Overview
- Sustainability Finance and ESG
Analyst Meeting 9M-23 | PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 2 |
Macroeconomy & Banking Industry Highlights
Analyst Meeting 9M-23
Macroeconomy & | 9M-23 Performance | Sustainability Finance | ||
Banking Industry Highlights | Overview | & ESG | ||
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 3
Economic highlights (1/2)
- Indonesia economy is resilient with GDP expansion of ~ 5% despite geopolitical tension and global challenges.
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) growth is slowing down, but still in positive territory.
- Strong fiscal reserves support government expenditure, and provide options to boost growth through pre-election spending or reducing government bond issuance.
2021 | 2022 | 9M23 | ||
Real GDP | 3.69% | 5.31% | 5.00%* | |
CPI | 1.87% | 5.51% | 2.28% | |
BI 7-D Rate | 3.50% | 5.50% | 5.75% | |
USD/IDR | 14,364 | 15,228 | 15,455 | |
CA (% of GDP) | 0.29% | 0.99% | -0.28%* | |
Source: Bank Indonesia & Statistics Indonesia (BPS) for 2022 & 2021, *) BCA economist estimates
Indonesia GDP Growth (%)
5.46 | 5.73 | ||||
5.17 | |||||
5.03 | 5.02 | 5.01 | 5.04 | ||
3.53
Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | ||
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) | ||||||
Gov't Spending & Foreign Direct Investment YoY (%) | ||||||
FDI YoY(%) 8.5 | 45.8 | |||||
10.7 | ||||||
10.6 | ||||||
5.3 | ||||||
Gov't Spending | ||||||
YoY (%) | -4.8 | |||||
Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 |
Source: Indonesia Investment Board (BKPM), Ministry of Finance
Analyst Meeting 9M-23 | PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 4 |
Economic highlights (2/2)
10-Yr Govt Bond Yield & USD-IDR Exchange Rate | Inflation & BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate | |||||||||
USD-IDR (Rp) 15,568 | 15,455 | Inflation (%) 5.51 | 5.75 | |||||||
6.9 | 6.9 | BI 7D RRR (%) | 5.50 | |||||||
3.50 | ||||||||||
14,253 | ||||||||||
6.4 | 10-Yr Govt Bond Yield (%) | 2.28 | ||||||||
1.87 | ||||||||||
Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23 | Sep-23 | |||||||
Source: Indonesia Statistics (BPS), Bloomberg |
- External factors drive higher Indonesia Government bond yield, and add pressures on the Rupiah in 3Q 2023.
- Bank Indonesia (BI) issues a new Rupiah denominated instrument (SRBI), offering attractive short-term yield to safeguard the currency stability. Trade balance remained in surplus.
- Positive real rate differentials (versus US) may allow the central bank to keep the benchmark rate at 5.75%.
- Catalysts: 1) Budget realization is at the slowest pace since 2018. Fiscal balance stood at 0.70% of GDP in Aug-23, implying more fiscal disbursements going forward; 2) Stronger investment flow
- Challenges: 1) More pressure on export commodity prices may deteriorate current account deficit; 2) Higher food prices may refuel inflationary pressure
Analyst Meeting 9M-23 | PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 5 |
Banking Industry (1/3)
- Loans grew 9% YoY in the banking system, largely deployed in financial services sector, real estate, business services and mining.
- Total deposits declined YtD in absolute value.
- Historically, total deposits would increase in 4Q due to higher government spending.
- Capital remained solid with CAR reaching 27.6%.
- Net profit was Rp 141.1 trillion in Jul23, rose by 20.4% YoY, presenting strong top line growth and asset quality improvement.
Banking Sector Financial Summary
Rp trillion | Aug-22 | Dec-22Aug-23 | ∆YoY | ∆YtD | |
Total Loans | 6,160 | 6,389 | 6,710 | 8.9% | 5.0% |
Third Party Funds | 7,358 | 7,932 | 7,831 | 6.4% | -1.3% |
CASA | 4,619 | 5,067 | 4,885 | 5.8% | -3.6% |
Current Accounts | 2,084 | 2,430 | 2,284 | 9.6% | -6.0% |
Savings Accounts | 2,535 | 2,637 | 2,601 | 2.6% | -1.4% |
Time Deposits | 2,740 | 2,865 | 2,946 | 7.5% | 2.8% |
Net Profit # | 117.2 | 201.8 | 141.1 | 20.4% | n.a |
NIM # | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 10bp | 10bp |
LDR | 83.7% | 80.5% | 85.7% | 200bp | 520bp |
NPL # | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | -40bp | 10bp |
CAR # | 25.0% | 25.6% | 27.6% | 260bp | 200bp |
Source: Bank Indonesia (SEKI) & Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (SPI)
Note: # use SPI data (July)
Analyst Meeting 9M-23 | PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 6 |
Banking Industry (2/3)
BCA Loans vs Industry (YoY)
BCA CASA vs Industry (YtD)
85.7% | Industry LDR |
79.4% | 80.5% |
1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | |
1.5% | BCA CASA | ||
0.9% | |||
0.0% |
11.7% | |
8.3% | 11.0% |
4.9%
10.3% 8.9%
BCA Loans
Industry Loans
-0.2% | -0.5% | |||||
-3.3% | -3.2% | -3.6% | Industry | |||
-4.2% | -3.9% | -3.9% | -3.8% | |||
-4.6% | CASA | |||||
Sep-21 | Dec-21 | Mar-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Aug-23 |
Source: Bank Indonesia
- LDR is on the rise as liquidity in the banking system tightens. BI still maintains high reserve requirement rate (RRR).
- Many banks recorded elevated cost of funds.
Dec-22 | Jan-23 | Feb-23 | Mar-23 | Apr-23 | May-23Jun-23 | Jul-23 | Aug-23 |
Source: Bank Indonesia |
- BCA outperformed the Industry.
Analyst Meeting 9M-23 | PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 7 |
Banking Industry (3/3)
- BCA CASA remains robust in the private sector (excluding Government and SOE funds).
- BCA Savings (SA) outgrew industry both YoY and YtD.
Banking Industry Avg Funding in the Private Sector (YoY)
BCA Avg CASA VS Banking Industry in the Private Sector (YtD)
15.8%
14.8%
13.0% 12.8%
11.2% 10.5% 10.3%
9.9% ► Avg CA
BCA: 7.3%
5.3%
4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | |
4.7% | |||
4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | |
5.2% ► Industry Avg
CA
4.6% ► BCA Avg CA
5.8%
5.5%
5.1%
4.5%
4.2% 4.0% 3.9%
3.7% ► Avg SA
BCA: 4.4%
4.3% | 4.4% | |||||
4.2% | 4.2% | |||||
4.5% | ||||||
3.9% | ||||||
2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | |||
2.2% | ||||||
2.0% | 2.1% | |||||
1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | ||
1.5% | 1.5% | |||||
3.8% ► BCA Avg SA
2.7%► Industry Avg
SA
Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23
Source: Bank Indonesia
Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23
Analyst Meeting 9M-23 | PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 8 |
9M-23 Performance Overview
Analyst Meeting 9M-23
Macroeconomy & | 9M-23 Performance | Sustainability Finance | ||
Banking Industry Highlights | Overview | & ESG | ||
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 9
Loans increased 12.3% YoY
Rp trillion | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | YoY | YtD | QoQ |
Total Assets | 1,288.7 | 1,314.7 | 1,356.8 | 1,381.4 | 7.2% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
Secondary Reserves & | 462.9 | 446.4 | 458.8 | 461.2 | -0.4% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
Marketable Securities | |||||||
Loans | 682.0 | 711.3 | 735.9 | 766.1 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 4.1% |
Third Party Funds | 1,025.5 | 1,039.7 | 1,071.2 | 1,088.8 | 6.2% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
CASA | 830.4 | 847.9 | 864.7 | 869.8 | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
Current Accounts | 318.3 | 323.9 | 328.9 | 337.6 | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
Savings Accounts | 512.2 | 524.0 | 535.8 | 532.1 | 3.9% | 1.6% | -0.7% |
Time Deposits | 195.1 | 191.8 | 206.5 | 219.0 | 12.3% | 14.2% | 6.1% |
Equity | 211.9 | 221.0 | 224.6 | 235.8 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% |
Analyst Meeting 9M-23 | PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 10 |
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PT Bank Central Asia Tbk published this content on 19 October 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 19 October 2023 09:52:34 UTC.
