Financials Seibu Holdings Inc.

Equities

9024

JP3417200007

Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-04-26 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
2,480 ^JPY	+0.10%		0.00%	+26.72%

Apr. 18	Seibu Holdings Taps Executive Advisers to Bolster Real Estate Business	MT
Apr. 10	7-Eleven Owner Weighs IPO of Superstore Business -- Update	DJ

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	599,712	355,458	365,756	382,073	408,943	746,665	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	1,478,212	1,243,109	1,259,187	1,222,007	1,169,327	1,498,042	1,484,714	1,465,067
P/E ratio	13.3 x	78.3 x	-5.06 x	35.9 x	7.2 x	19 x	21.5 x	19.8 x
Yield	1.55%	2.53%	-	0.39%	1.84%	1.01%	1.15%	1.23%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.06 x	0.64 x	1.09 x	0.96 x	0.95 x	1.59 x	1.52 x	1.49 x
EV / Revenue	2.61 x	2.24 x	3.74 x	3.08 x	2.73 x	3.19 x	3.03 x	2.93 x
EV / EBITDA	11.7 x	10.9 x	201 x	28.1 x	15.2 x	14.8 x	13.7 x	12.9 x
EV / FCF	309 x	259 x	-17.5 x	30.6 x	7.54 x	77 x	59.6 x	49.4 x
FCF Yield	0.32%	0.39%	-5.7%	3.27%	13.3%	1.3%	1.68%	2.03%
Price to Book	1.44 x	0.97 x	1.22 x	1.23 x	1.1 x	1.86 x	1.74 x	1.63 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	309,609	299,207	299,800	300,372	300,914	301,075	-	-
Reference price ²	1,937	1,188	1,220	1,272	1,359	2,480	2,480	2,480
Announcement Date	5/14/19	5/26/20	5/13/21	5/12/22	5/11/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: März	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	565,939	554,590	337,061	396,856	428,487	469,825	489,886	500,128
EBITDA ¹	126,458	113,536	6,252	43,430	76,796	101,508	108,128	113,916
EBIT ¹	73,332	56,823	-51,587	-13,216	22,155	46,427	52,729	57,244
Operating Margin	12.96%	10.25%	-15.3%	-3.33%	5.17%	9.88%	10.76%	11.45%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	60,376	18,773	-71,970	28,973	62,011	53,473	49,512	54,495
Net income ¹	45,457	4,670	-72,301	10,623	56,753	39,447	34,972	37,969
Net margin	8.03%	0.84%	-21.45%	2.68%	13.24%	8.4%	7.14%	7.59%
EPS ²	145.2	15.18	-241.3	35.39	188.7	130.3	115.6	125.4
Free Cash Flow ¹	4,787	4,803	-71,801	39,916	155,021	19,465	24,926	29,686
FCF margin	0.85%	0.87%	-21.3%	10.06%	36.18%	4.14%	5.09%	5.94%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	3.79%	4.23%	-	91.91%	201.86%	19.18%	23.05%	26.06%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	10.53%	102.85%	-	375.75%	273.15%	49.34%	71.27%	78.18%
Dividend per Share ²	30.00	30.00	-	5.000	25.00	25.00	28.60	30.40
Announcement Date	5/14/19	5/26/20	5/13/21	5/12/22	5/11/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2020 S1	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2
Net sales ¹	294,689	154,899	103,145	194,908	105,374	96,574	103,432	109,163	212,595	107,900	107,992	116,212	122,670	238,882	121,594	112,824	-
EBITDA ¹	-	-	16,100	23,582	13,418	6,430	21,441	19,731	41,172	20,200	15,820	27,757	30,395	58,152	29,448	13,836	-
EBIT ¹	43,796	-30,690	2,462	-3,533	-877	-8,806	7,624	5,791	13,415	6,700	2,040	14,653	17,165	31,818	15,783	899	-
Operating Margin	14.86%	-19.81%	2.39%	-1.81%	-0.83%	-9.12%	7.37%	5.3%	6.31%	6.21%	1.89%	12.61%	13.99%	13.32%	12.98%	0.8%	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	38,322	-42,087	-3,180	-10,931	13,173	26,731	6,979	54,903	61,882	14,329	-14,200	13,535	25,408	38,943	21,007	-2,450	-
Net income ¹	28,118	-39,033	-3,880	-12,751	3,883	19,491	3,668	60,973	64,641	5,800	-13,688	9,099	18,359	27,458	15,727	-3,185	-
Net margin	9.54%	-25.2%	-3.76%	-6.54%	3.68%	20.18%	3.55%	55.86%	30.41%	5.38%	-12.68%	7.83%	14.97%	11.49%	12.93%	-2.82%	-
EPS ²	91.10	-130.3	-12.92	-42.49	12.94	64.94	12.21	202.8	215.0	19.44	-45.77	30.23	60.98	91.21	52.24	-20.40	-
Dividend per Share ²	15.00	-	-	-	-	5.000	-	5.000	5.000	-	20.00	-	12.50	12.50	-	12.50	12.50
Announcement Date	11/7/19	11/12/20	11/10/21	11/10/21	2/10/22	5/12/22	8/4/22	11/10/22	11/10/22	2/9/23	5/11/23	8/1/23	11/9/23	11/9/23	2/8/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	878,500	887,651	893,431	839,934	760,384	751,377	738,049	718,402
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	6.947 x	7.818 x	142.9 x	19.34 x	9.901 x	7.402 x	6.826 x	6.306 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	4,787	4,803	-71,801	39,916	155,021	19,465	24,926	29,686
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	11.3%	1.2%	-21.7%	3.5%	16.6%	10.6%	8.69%	8.83%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	3.85%	2.84%	-3.45%	0.62%	1.22%	2.64%	2.81%	3.1%
Assets ¹	1,181,647	164,542	2,094,734	1,700,986	4,638,881	1,491,675	1,244,786	1,224,025
Book Value Per Share ²	1,346	1,227	1,000	1,036	1,237	1,331	1,423	1,521
Cash Flow per Share ²	315.0	199.0	-48.30	224.0	370.0	371.0	371.0	385.0
Capex ¹	83,317	86,993	60,673	44,276	48,555	69,333	70,000	70,000
Capex / Sales	14.72%	15.69%	18%	11.16%	11.33%	14.76%	14.29%	14%
Announcement Date	5/14/19	5/26/20	5/13/21	5/12/22	5/11/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Seibu Holdings Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2,480 JPY

Average target price

2,280 JPY

Spread / Average Target

-8.06%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea

	1st Jan change	Capi.
SEIBU HOLDINGS INC.	+26.72%	4.74B
CENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	-0.50%	22.29B
INDIAN RAILWAY CATERING & TOURISM CORPORATION LIMITED	+17.68%	10.02B
WEST JAPAN RAILWAY COMPANY	+0.78%	9.18B
TOKYU CORPORATION	+8.34%	7.09B
KEISEI ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD	-11.06%	6.12B
HANKYU HANSHIN HOLDINGS, INC.	-9.24%	6.23B
KINTETSU GROUP HOLDINGS CO.,LTD.	-8.41%	4.95B
TOBU RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-16.65%	4.15B
ODAKYU ELECTRIC RAILWAY CO., LTD.	-18.32%	3.99B

Other Passenger Transportation, Ground & Sea