2022 GDP estimate +3.06%, vs previous forecast +3.76%
Q3 growth revised down to +4.01% y/y, from +4.1%
2022 exports estimate +8.73% y/y, from +13.51%
2023 GDP estimate +2.75% y/y, from +3.05%
TAIPEI, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Taiwan's economy is likely to
grow more slowly than previously forecast this year and next,
the statistics office said on Tuesday, as it also cut its
exports outlook due to global inflation, rate rises and China's
Taiwan, home to the world's largest contract chip maker TSMC
, had benefited over the past two years from soaring
demand for tablets, laptops and other electronics to support the
work and study from home trend during the COVID-19 pandemic.
But demand for those consumer goods is faltering due to
lockdowns in Taiwan's largest export market China to control the
pandemic, interest rate hikes around the world to crimp soaring
inflation, and the impact of the war in Ukraine.
Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) for 2022 is now
expected to be 3.06% higher than last year, the Directorate
General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics said, revising down
the 3.76% forecast it issued in August.
That would mark a slowdown from the 6.45% logged for 2021,
which was the fastest growth rate since the economy expanded
10.25% in 2010.
"The world's economic growth rate has become lower, trade
volume has decreased, and low demand from other countries has
reduced our exports," agency head Chu Tzer-ming told reporters.
Agency official Tsai Yu-tai added that new U.S. legislation
to boost domestic chip manufacturing also brought uncertainty to
Taiwanese production, but its impact was hard to assess.
The statistics agency now sees 2022 exports up 8.73% on
last year, compared with 13.51% predicted earlier, saying that
weakening demand in the second half would overshadow strong
growth in the first half.
Taiwan's exports are a bellwether of demand for global tech
giants such as Apple Inc.
For next year, it said it saw 2023 GDP expanding 2.75%
compared with a prior estimate of 3.05%, while exports would
contract 0.22%, compared with the 2.64% expansion previously
China's economy rebounded at a faster-than-anticipated clip
in the third quarter, but a more robust revival in the longer
term will be challenged by persistent COVID-19 curbs, a
prolonged property slump and global recession risks.
The office also revised up Taiwan's inflation outlook
for this year and next. It expects consumer prices to rise 2.94%
from a year ago in 2022 and to increase 1.86% in 2023. It had
previously forecast a rise of 2.92% this year and 1.72% next
In the third quarter, GDP was up by a revised 4.01% on a
year earlier, growing slightly more slowly than indicated in a
preliminary reading of 4.1%, the agency said.
(Reporting by Jeanny Kao and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Ana
Nicolaci da Costa)