Thai Oil : Q2/ 2023 Analyst Meeting

Thai Oil Public Company Limited

Q2/23 Analyst Presentation

17 Aug 2023

Time : 10:00 - 12:00 hrs.

1

2

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it.

Some statements made in this material are forward-looking with relevant assumptions, which are subject to uncertainties, which may cause the actual result/performance to be materially deviated from any future result/performance implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note that the company and management/staff are not capable to control and guarantee if these forward-looking statements will be accurately materialized, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

3

Presentation Agenda (Q2/23)

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

OUTLOOK

FINAL REMARK

Key Market Highlight

Softer GRM/GIM due to limited Russia's supply disruption

Key Highlights	Performance		Outlook
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights	Strategy - 3Vs

4

Final Remark

Recovery in Global Oil Demand

recovered product demand led by jet/kero

	Global Oil Demand Growth
120%	(avg.2019 = 100%)	Gasoil
Pre-COVID level (2019)
100%			Gasoline
80%
60%				Jet
40%
20%
2019	2020	2021	2022	2023

Source : FGE (Apr'23)

Crude balance turn to deficit in Q3

Driven by extra Saudi supply cut

MBD	2023 Demand 101.2 MBD (+1.8 MBD YoY)	MBD
2023 Production 101.3 MBD (+1.4 MBD YoY)

104						4.0
102						3.0
					2.0
100
					1.0
98						0.0
96				Saudi Cut	(1.0)
			(2.0)
94				Extra Cut in Q3'23
					(3.0)
92						(4.0)
Q1/21	Q3/21	Q1/22	Q3/22	Q1/23	Q3/23

Source : EIA (May'23)

Dubai Price ($/BBL)		77.8
Limited Russia's supply disruption
				$2.5/BBL (QoQ)
Q1/19	Q4/19	Q3/20	Q2/21	Q1/22	Q4/22	Q3/23

Murban OSP ($/BBL)	2.8
Limited Russia's supply disruption
	$2.2/BBL (QoQ)

	Low Global Product Inventory
	with stock below 5-year average
		US/ARA/Singapore			US/ARA/Singapore
	Middle Distillates Inventory	Mbbl		Gasoline Inventory
Mbbl
250						300
200						280
						260
150						240
100						220
Jan	Mar	May	Jul	Sep	Nov
Jan	Mar	May	Jul	Sep	Nov
		5yr-range		Avg. 18-22	2022	2023

Potential release of new China's export quota

to offset recovery in demand

MBD			China Product Export
2.00
1.50
1.00						Avg 2022			Avg 2023
0.50
0.00	Apr-20	Jul-20	Oct-20Jan-21	Apr-21Jul-21	Oct-21	Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22	Oct-22		Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23
Jan-20	Jan-23

Q1/19	Q4/19	Q3/20	Q2/21	Q1/22	Q4/22	Q3/23
SG GRM ($/BBL)
Softer middle distillate cracks
						4.0
					$4.2/BBL (QoQ)
Q1/19	Q4/19	Q3/20	Q2/21	Q1/22	Q4/22	Q3/23

Key Performance Highlight				5
Softer GIM from Weaker Refinery and Lube Business
Key Highlights	Performance		Outlook	Final Remark
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights		Strategy - 3Vs

	Aromatic
	& LAB
	0.9
	Acc. GIM ($/BBL)
Refinery	Q2/23
4.2
	0.8
	2.5 vs Q1/23 = 8.3 $/BBL

Lube

Unit: $/BBL

• Softer crude oil price on limited Russia's supply disruption and concerns over demand growth
• Softer gasoline spread from weak demand in China and higher China's export
• Softer middle distillate cracks from limited Russia's supply disruption
• Softer crude premium on limited Russia's supply disruption and concerns over demand growth
• Increasing PX margin from higher demand for PET bottle production and lower supply from schedule maintenance in China and South Korea
• Softer BZ margin from weak downstream demand such as SM
• Improving LAB spread on higher Asian demand during summer
• Softening Base Oil and Bitumen margin from slower-than-expected demand growth and limited budget for infrastructure improvement

Crude Price

Murban OSP

5.0	2.8	5.7	3.9
	Dubai Price	101.8
80.3	77.8					79.0
	Q1/23		Q2/23				1H/22		1H/23

Market GRM

10.0

4.5

16.1

7.2

	Q1/23		Q2/23			1H/22		1H/23

Stock G/(L)

(3.5)

(2.0)

11.8

(2.7)

Q1/23	Q2/23		1H/22	1H/23

GIM

Mkt	11.8	6.1			17.0			9.0
Acc	8.3	4.2			28.7			6.3
											0.7
											0.4
			1.1		0.8			27.6			1.0
			0.9										0.9
			6.4		0.9											4.5
					2.5
			Q1/23		Q2/23				1H/22				1H/23
					Refinery			Aromatic & LAB			Lube