Thai Oil : Q3/ 2023 Opportunity Day

Thai Oil Public Company Limited

Q3 & 9M/23 Opportunity Day

8 Dec 2023

Time : 13:15 - 14:00 hrs.

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Disclaimer

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The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it.

Some statements made in this material are forward-looking with relevant assumptions, which are subject to uncertainties, which may cause the actual result/performance to be materially deviated from any future result/performance implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note that the company and management/staff are not capable to control and guarantee if these forward-looking statements will be accurately materialized, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

Presentation Agenda (Q3/23)

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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

OUTLOOK

FINAL REMARK

Key Market Highlight

Decent GRM/GIM due to Limited Supply from Refinery Outages

Key Highlights	Performance		Outlook
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights	Strategy - 3Vs

Market Factors

4

Final Remark

Oil Spill Incident Update

Dubai Price ($/BBL)

Supply tightness from Saudi and Russia

Recovery in Global Oil Demand

recovered product demand led by jet/kero

Global Oil Demand Growth

(avg.2019 = 100%)

120%	Pre-COVID level (2019)
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Source : FGE (Oct'23)

Gasoil

Gasoline

Jet

Crude balance remains deficit in Q4

driven by Saudi production cut and Russia export cut

MBD	2023 Demand 100.9 MBD (+1.8 MBD YoY)	MBD
104	2023 Production 101.3 MBD (+1.3 MBD YoY)	4.0
102		3.0
	2.0
100
	1.0
98		0.0
96		(1.0)
	(2.0)
94
	(3.0)
92		(4.0)
Q1/21 Q3/21 Q1/22 Q3/22 Q1/23 Q3/23 Q1/24 Q3/24

Source : EIA (Oct'23)

production cut	86.7
	$8.9/BBL (QoQ)
	Q4TD : $87.3/BBL

Q1/19	Q4/19	Q3/20	Q2/21	Q1/22	Q4/22	Q3/23
Murban OSP ($/BBL)
Softening demand due to plant maintenance
						1.8
					$1.0/BBL (QoQ)
						Q4 : $3.3/BBL

Low Global Product Inventory	Israel - Hamas Conflict
with stock below 5-year average for Middle Distillates

	US/ARA/Singapore		US/ARA/Singapore	Potential Impact:
Mbbl	Middle Distillates Inventory	Mbbl	Gasoline Inventory
300					300						• Short term and Limited
									impact to oil flows as the
250					280						war is unlikely to spread.
200					260						Factor to watch:
150					240						• Risk of Strait of Hormuz
100					220						closure if it is escalated
									to proxy war between
Jan	Mar May	Jul	Sep	Nov	Jan	Mar	May	Jul	Sep	Nov
		5yr-range	Avg. 18-22	2022		2023			US and Iran.
Source : Reuters (Oct'23)

Q1/19

Q4/19

Q3/20

Q2/21

Q1/22

Q4/22

Q3/23

SG GRM ($/BBL)

Decent margin especially middle distillate cracks

9.5

$5.5/BBL (QoQ)

Q4TD : $4.1/BBL

Q1/19 Q4/19 Q3/20 Q2/21 Q1/22 Q4/22 Q3/23

Q4TD as of 10 Nov'23

Key Performance Highlight

Stronger GIM Mainly from Refinery Business

Key Highlights		Performance			Outlook
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights
Market Highlight
0.5	$/bbl	Q3/23	22.2	$/bbl
	Lube	Refinery
	GIM ($/bbl)
0.7	$/bbl	23.3

Aromatic & LAB

• Higher crude oil price due to limited supply after Saudi extended production cut and Russia

Crude Oil		prolonged oil export cut.
		• Robust Middle Distillate spreads mainly from limited supply as Russia banned gasoil export
		starting in Sep'23 amid refinery outages.
		• Increasing Gasoline Spread due to refinery outages from planned and unplanned
		maintenance in the US and Europe.
Refinery		• Softer crude premium as softening demand in Northern Asia amid increasing supply from US.
		• Decreasing PX margin due to higher feedstock cost and increasing supply after maintenance.
		• Softer BZ margin pressured by weak downstream market, coupled with lower-than-expected
		economic growth in China.
Aromatic & LAB		• Stable LAB contribution from slightly higher gross margin amid softening demand during
	monsoon season.

• Softening Base Oil and Bitumen margin due to lower demand during raining season and higher supply, together with concern over China's economic slowdown.

Lube

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																		Final Remark
Strategy - 3Vs									Oil Spill Incident Update
Contribution ($/bbl)
Murban OSP	Crude Price
				7.3
							2.8												3.2
											1.8
Dubai Price
		86.7				100.2
77.8																				81.6
							Q2/23			Q3/23												9M/22			9M/23
											Market GRM
											12.4				12.9			9.0
							4.5
											Stock G/(L)
											9.8				4.5
							(2.0)											1.5
							Q2/23	Q3/23									9M/22		9M/23
											13.6							GIM	10.5
Mkt	6.2						14.2
Acc	4.2			23.3				18.7			12.0
											0.5
											0.7				1.1				0.8
											22.2				0.3
							0.8						17.5			0.8
															10.5
							0.9
							2.5
							Q2/23	Q3/23									9M/22		9M/23
											Refinery						Aromatic & LAB					Lube

Key Business Highlight				6
Strong Refinery Utilization and Commitment to Clients with Competitive Cost
Key Highlights	Performance		Outlook	Final Remark
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights	Strategy - 3Vs	Oil Spill Incident Update

Operational

CommercialFinancial

High and reliable refinery production

Crude optimization

Continuously enhanced cost management

U-Rate %	Q2/23	Q3/23	9M/22	9M/23
Refinery	113%	110%*	108%	112%
Aromatics	71%	74%	73%	71%
LAB	125%	123%	119%	123%
Base Oil	83%	79%	90%	80%

*Oil spill incident in early Sep'23

2%

1%

7%

90%

Q2/23

3%

7%

90%

Q3/23

2%

1%

9%

89%

9M/22

1%

2%

7%

90%

9M/23

Others i.e. WAF, US

Far East

Local

Middle

East

through Orchestra

Group's Cash Cost ($/bbl)

				Operating Cost
		2.5		Interest Expense (net)
2.1	2.4	2.3
0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
1.4	1.7	1.8	1.6
Q1/23	Q2/23	Q3/23		9M/23

Optimized production

Capture high local & Indochina sales

Interim Dividend Payment

18%

17%

38%

18%

18%

38%

19%

14%

37%

18%

18%

38%

GASOLINE

JET

DIESEL

	Q2/23	Q3/23	9M/22	9M/23
Local	86%	85%	85%	86%
Indochina	12%	11%	12%	12%
Other exports	2%	4%	3%	2%

Interim Dividend: THB 0.65/Share Payment date: 22 Sep 23

Q2/23

Q3/23

9M/22

9M/23

3Vs Strategy : Achievement				7
Solid Progress on Key Strategic Projects
Key Highlights	Performance		Outlook	Final Remark
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights	Strategy - 3Vs	Oil Spill Incident Update

01

CFP

94%

Progress as of

Sep'23

VALUE MAXIMIZATION

• Last CFP module which are RHCU component

were transferred to site for installation safely early

Oct 2023.

• HDS-4 is on progress of pre-commissioningand

moving towards to mechanic completion end of

this year and commissioning test early of 2024.

• Utility system and CDU-4 complex construction

are in progress for commissioning throughout

2024.

02 VALUE ENHANCEMENT

Market Expansion

• Focusing on target countries (Vietnam, India,

Indonesia).

• TOPNEXT as international marketing arm of Thaioil for Petroleum, Lube, Aromatics & LAB, Solvent & Chemical, HVPs.

03 VALUE DIVERSIFICATION

CAP

HVP

• Prepare for the upcoming FID of Chlor-Alkali(CA) &

Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) Plant (On-going)

• Signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with INALUM for

product offtake and collaborate to support

Aluminum Downstreaming and Domestic EV

Ecosystem.

New product launched

Other New S-Curve

• Biojet: Study, develop and invest in BioJet fuels production with
  PTTGROUP.
• Biochemical/Bioplastic: Study in- depth on the shortlisted products.
• Hydrogen/CCS/CCU: Feasibility study with PTT group.

HVB

• Market Attractiveness
• Strategic fit with TOP
• Focus on D&S in 3 applications :
• 1. Personal care
  2. Home care
  3. Industrial care

TOPLSol C9ALS, Isopentane M, TOPSol WO1, Pentane VPS (C), Hexane TPC, Cyclopentane 97%, TOPSolP200

Disinfectants Surfactants

Oil Spill Incident Update

Quick Situation Resolved and Ongoing Investigation

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Key Highlights	Performance		Outlook	Final Remark
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights	Strategy - 3Vs	Oil Spill Incident Update

Incident Timeline

Operational

Impact

Financial

Status

Investigation

• Found oil spill around SBM-2 (estimated approx. 60,000 Liters)
• Laid down oil booms and used oil dispersant
• Established Emergency Control center

3 Sep 2023

4 Sep 2023

• SBM-1could be used instead of SBM-2.
• Crude & products are stored for 30 days.

	Expenses
	 Booked in Q3/23 ~155 MB
	 Total expenses is undergoing
	inspection
	Insurance Policies:
	 All Risk (PD & BI)
	 Marine Cargo
	 Pollution Legal Liability
	 Third Party Liability

• Ongoing investigation by experts and government agencies.
• Conducted with independence and transparency.

• Established Oil Spill Command Center

Environmental

• Collaborate with government agencies to engage environment experts to conduct environmental studies and develop environmental restoration projects as required.

7 Sep 2023

• Oil spill successfully resolved
• No remaining of residue
• Closed Oil Spill Command Center

ESG Response

Social

• Engage in discussions, disseminate information and gather feedbacks on concerns from community.

Governance

• Collaborate with government agencies to establish fair and reasonably assistance criteria.
• Monitoring impact from upcoming or additional regulations (if any).

Presentation Agenda (Q3/23)

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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

OUTLOOK

FINAL REMARK

Financial Performance

Higher Net Operating Profit with Main Contribution from Refinery Business

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Key Highlights

OverallRefinery

	Performance			Outlook		Final Remark
Aromatic & LAB	Base Oil	GIM	Power	Olefins	Solvent & Ethanol	All business	F/S & others

TOP Group Net Profit and Contribution*

Q3/23

TOP Group Net Profit

10,828

Q2/23: 1,117

9,711 (QoQ)

Net Operating Profit

10,540

Q2/23 : 2,951

7,589 (QoQ)

Stock G/(L) & Write down on crude & product inventory

7,865

Q2/23 : (1,914)

9,779 (QoQ)

Other Items

(7,577)

Q2/23 : 80

(7,657) (QoQ)

Q2/23

1,117 MB

80

-

2,951

(1,914)

10% 6%

9%

Q2/23

74%

Q3/23		9M/22		9M/23
10,828 MB		32,521 MB		16,499 MB

			17,334
		10,677
						2,404
	7,865	31,319			22,147
10,540
(7,577)					(8,052)
		(26,809)
5%	3%	4% 4%		2%	6% 3%
Q3/23		9M/22		9M/23
	92%	92%		89%

Unit : Million Baht (MB)

Gain on GPSC share sale before tax

Stock g/l & Write down on crude & product inventory

Net operating profit

Other items incl FX g/l on asset & liability, hedging g/l, tax & non- recurring items(1)

Remark : (1) Other Items Details

• Financial Instruments gain/(loss), and unrealized on financial instruments gain/(loss), and others : Q2/23 262 MB,
  Q3/23 (4,518) MB, 9M/22 (15,128) MB, 9M/23 (3,770) MB
• Foreign exchange gain / (loss) on foreign currency assets and liabilities : Q2/23 (705) MB, Q3/23 (379) MB,
  9M/22 (2,655) MB, 9M/23 (321) MB
• Reversal of income tax (expense) : Q2/23 523 MB, Q3/23 (2,680) MB, 9M/22 (9,026) MB, 9M/23 (3,961) MB

Petroleum & Lube		Petchem		Power		Others & New Business

*Contribution excluding Stock g/(l) & one-time items