TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LIMITED |
Market Closed -
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 22.2 HKD | +2.54% |
|
+2.54% | +53.74% |
| Mar. 20 | Tongcheng Travel Holdings Returns to Profit as Revenue Surges; Shares Rise 4% | MT |
| Mar. 19 | Transcript : Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited, Q4 2023 Earnings Call, Mar 19, 2024 |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 22,791 | 26,571 | 27,522 | 26,093 | 37,147 | 46,646 | 46,646 | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 19,558 | 24,407 | 25,706 | 24,161 | 35,901 | 29,599 | 39,914 | 36,959 |
| P/E ratio | -49.9 x | 37.9 x | 84.2 x | 36.8 x | -237 x | 19.3 x | 23.2 x | 18.4 x |
| Yield | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.37% | 0.33% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 3.74 x | 3.59 x | 4.64 x | 3.46 x | 5.64 x | 2.49 x | 2.68 x | 2.27 x |
| EV / Revenue | 3.21 x | 3.3 x | 4.33 x | 3.21 x | 5.45 x | 2.49 x | 2.29 x | 1.8 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.2 x | 12.1 x | 18.8 x | 12.7 x | 25 x | 9.47 x | 11.1 x | 8.38 x |
| EV / FCF | 9.67 x | 17.5 x | -838 x | 17.7 x | -169 x | 19 x | 12.6 x | 11.1 x |
| FCF Yield | 10.3% | 5.72% | -0.12% | 5.66% | -0.59% | 5.27% | 7.91% | 8.99% |
| Price to Book | 1.51 x | 1.96 x | 1.93 x | 1.7 x | 2.36 x | 2.64 x | 2.33 x | 2.05 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 2,076,422 | 2,126,789 | 2,179,982 | 2,217,693 | 2,239,657 | 2,269,905 | 2,269,905 | - |
| Reference price 2 | 10.98 | 12.49 | 12.62 | 11.77 | 16.59 | 20.55 | 20.55 | 20.55 |
| Announcement Date | 3/20/19 | 3/25/20 | 3/23/21 | 3/22/22 | 3/21/23 | 3/19/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 6,091 | 7,393 | 5,933 | 7,538 | 6,585 | 11,896 | 17,418 | 20,557 |
| EBITDA 1 | 1,482 | 2,019 | 1,366 | 1,896 | 1,437 | 3,124 | 3,598 | 4,412 |
| EBIT 1 | -389.8 | 1,063 | 381.9 | 895.3 | -24.19 | 1,869 | 2,380 | 3,036 |
| Operating Margin | -6.4% | 14.38% | 6.44% | 11.88% | -0.37% | 15.71% | 13.66% | 14.77% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 601.5 | 881.5 | 397.6 | 874.9 | -117.1 | 1,854 | 2,462 | 2,973 |
| Net income 1 | 530 | 688.1 | 327.6 | 723.4 | -146 | 1,554 | 2,016 | 2,461 |
| Net margin | 8.7% | 9.31% | 5.52% | 9.6% | -2.22% | 13.06% | 11.58% | 11.97% |
| EPS 2 | -0.2200 | 0.3300 | 0.1500 | 0.3200 | -0.0700 | 0.6800 | 0.8876 | 1.115 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 2,023 | 1,395 | -30.68 | 1,368 | -213 | 2,201 | 3,156 | 3,322 |
| FCF margin | 33.22% | 18.87% | -0.52% | 18.15% | -3.23% | 19.01% | 18.12% | 16.16% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 136.57% | 69.12% | - | 72.18% | - | 73.4% | 87.7% | 75.31% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 381.81% | 202.78% | - | 189.13% | - | 144.99% | 156.49% | 134.99% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0764 | 0.0672 |
| Announcement Date | 3/20/19 | 3/25/20 | 3/23/21 | 3/22/22 | 3/21/23 | 3/19/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 S2 | 2021 Q3 | 2021 Q4 | 2022 Q1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 4,019 | 1,939 | 1,846 | 1,718 | 1,319 | 2,048 | 1,500 | 2,586 | 2,866 | 3,299 | 3,145 | 3,748 | 4,230 | 5,224 | 4,456 |
| EBITDA 1 | - | 526.3 | 421.8 | 438.4 | 292.2 | 462.2 | 244.3 | 732.2 | 805.8 | 870 | 715.9 | 833.8 | 978.2 | 1,362 | 918.3 |
| EBIT 1 | 914.5 | 343.8 | 65.01 | 137.8 | -128.5 | -39.05 | 5.488 | 465.4 | 417.1 | 598.9 | 387.9 | 521.2 | 663.2 | 1,039 | 654.1 |
| Operating Margin | 22.76% | 17.73% | 3.52% | 8.02% | -9.74% | -1.91% | 0.37% | 18% | 14.55% | 18.15% | 12.34% | 13.91% | 15.68% | 19.88% | 14.68% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | - | 281.8 | 60.57 | 142.2 | -162 | -64.71 | -32.58 | 444.1 | 426.6 | 597.9 | 385.2 | 455.9 | 589.7 | 928.9 | 482.3 |
| Net income 1 | 392.5 | 231.3 | 31.23 | 101.1 | -132.1 | -90.39 | -24.63 | 377.9 | 355.9 | 510.2 | 310.1 | 375.4 | 484.9 | 755.6 | 393.8 |
| Net margin | 9.77% | 11.92% | 1.69% | 5.89% | -10.02% | -4.41% | -1.64% | 14.61% | 12.42% | 15.46% | 9.86% | 10.02% | 11.46% | 14.46% | 8.84% |
| EPS 2 | - | - | - | -0.0100 | -0.0600 | - | - | - | 0.1600 | - | - | 0.1519 | 0.2176 | 0.3260 | 0.1406 |
| Dividend per Share 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.1722 |
| Announcement Date | 3/25/20 | 11/22/21 | 3/22/22 | 5/19/22 | 8/22/22 | 11/22/22 | 3/21/23 | 5/24/23 | 8/22/23 | 11/21/23 | 3/19/24 | - | - | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net Cash position 1 | 2,164 | 1,816 | 1,932 | 1,246 | - | 6,732 | 9,687 | 13,159 |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 1,395 | -30.7 | 1,368 | -213 | - | 3,156 | 3,322 | 3,671 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 5.57% | 2.41% | 4.95% | -0.94% | - | 12.6% | 13.8% | 14.5% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 3.79% | 1.7% | 3.56% | -0.63% | - | 6.44% | 7.34% | 7.82% |
| Assets 1 | 18,137 | 19,299 | 20,310 | 23,287 | - | 31,287 | 33,537 | 41,498 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 6.390 | 6.560 | 6.910 | 7.020 | - | 8.810 | 10.00 | 11.30 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 0.8000 | 0.0600 | 0.8200 | 0.1400 | - | 1.430 | 1.920 | 1.970 |
| Capex 1 | 301 | 160 | 310 | 515 | - | 530 | 581 | 310 |
| Capex / Sales | 4.07% | 2.7% | 4.11% | 7.83% | - | 3.04% | 2.83% | 1.27% |
| Announcement Date | 3/25/20 | 3/23/21 | 3/22/22 | 3/21/23 | 3/19/24 | - | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
C+
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
24
Last Close Price
20.55
CNY
Average target price
21.65
CNY
Spread / Average Target
+5.35%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| +53.74% | 6.44B | |
| -0.74% | 120B | |
| +40.52% | 32.51B | |
| -10.60% | 18.49B | |
| +43.61% | 7.36B | |
| +27.50% | 3.79B | |
| +3.09% | 3.01B | |
| +10.35% | 2.05B | |
| -2.78% | 1.89B | |
| -4.35% | 1.75B |
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- Financials Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited
