UMICORE Growth, returns and cashflows
S P E A K E R
Filip Platteeuw
Horizon 2020 strategy financial targets
Delivered on financial targets
Accelerating profitable growth
High investments & strong returns
Delivered on top-line growth ambition
2015 - 2020 Targets | 2020 Values | 2021 Values | |||||||
CAGR revenues of 7 % | 7 % | 9 % | |||||||
CAGR adj. EBITDA of 8 % | 12 % | 18 % | |||||||
Double adj. EBIT to € 0.5bn by 2020 | Achieved in 2018 | Tripled by 2021 | |||||||
Group ROCE > 15 % | 12.1 % | 22.2 % | |||||||
Not at the detriment | Strong value creation notwithstanding | Record 2021 | |||||||
of margins | ROCE headwinds due to delayed | results with | |||||||
- double digit earnings | capacity utilization in Rechargeable | record precious metal | |||||||
growth | Battery Materials in China | prices as accelerator | |||||||
Umicore Capital Markets Day 2022 | 2 |
Horizon 2020 strategy drove step-change
Doubled in size : earnings, capital employed and value
2015 | STEP CHANGE | 2021 | ||||||||||
Workforce ('000) | 8.8 | + 26 % | 11.1 | |||||||||
Revenues (€ bn) | 2.3 | x 1.7 | 4.0 | |||||||||
adj EBITDA (€ bn) | 0.47 | x 2.7 | 1.25 | |||||||||
Average Capital Employed (€ bn) | 2.2 | x 2.0 | 4.4 | |||||||||
Enterprise Value (€ bn) | 4.5 | x 2.1 | 9.6 | |||||||||
Market Cap (€ bn) | 4.2 | x 2.1 | ~ 15 | % | 8.6 | |||||||
annual | TSR | |||||||||||
Doubled size of the Group | Substantial growth | Strong double digit | ||||||||||
driven by strong underlying | investments, yet to | shareholder returns | ||||||||||
market growth and | generate full payback | (with increased volatility | ||||||||||
accelerated by metal prices | potential | in recent years) | ||||||||||
Enterprise Value and Market Cap calculated end of calendar year
TSR = Total Shareholder Return = Market Cap accretion (eoy) + dividend payout
Workforce = fully consolidated entities
CAGR 2015-2021
adj EBITDA
+25% | +21% | |||
+18% | ||||
+20% | +15% +15% | |||
+15% | ||||
+10% | ||||
+5% | ||||
+0% | Group | CAT | E&ST | REC |
+13 % +12 % +15 % +14 %
2021 at average 2020 precious metal prices
Balanced earnings growth across different business groups
Umicore Capital Markets Day 2022 | 3 |
Metal price assumptions going forward
Anticipate non-linear price changes interlinked to the pace of electrification
Strategy is not predicated on today's high precious metal prices
• | Near-term structural supply/demand tightness to support prices |
• | Over time, gradually lower PGM demand for emission control applications |
Historical average precious metal prices & average third party projections (€/kg)
70 .0 00 | 60 0.000 |
• | Except for Pt, supported by a.o. fuel cell growth |
• | Two price sets considered : gradual PGM price normalization scenario vs stable |
pricing at comparable average 2020 levels* (Recycling & Catalysis sensitivity) |
Battery materials metals (Co, Ni & Li) simulated at 2021 average prices
• Probability of continued price volatility in view of emerging battery market |
characteristics |
60 .0 00
50 .0 00
40 .0 00
30 .0 00
20 .0 00
10 .0 00
50 0.000
40 0.000
30 0.000
20 0.000
10 0.000
• Battery Recycling supply expected to become a stabilizing factor as from |
the end of the decade |
* Au, Ag, Pt, Pd, Rh |
0 | 0 | |||||||||
20 15 | 20 16 | 20 17 | 20 18 | 20 19 | 20 20 | 20 21 | 20 22 | 20 23 | 20 24 | 20 25 |
Au | Pd | Pt | Rh (right scale) |
Based on following sources (May) : Barclays, BMO, BNP Paribas, BofA, Canaccord, CIBC, Credit Suisse, Desjardins, Deutsche, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Jefferies, JP Morgan, Liberum, Macquarie, National Bank of Canada, Natixis, NBF, Raymond James, Royal Bank of Canada, Scotiabank, GBM, Stifel, UBS
Umicore Capital Markets Day 2022 | 4 |
Differentiated sources of value creation
Balancing growth, returns and cash flows for the Group
Value driver | Low | Contribution to Umicore's value creation | High |
Earnings growth
(adj EBITDA growth)
Cost of
Return-driverCapital
(adj ROCE >
Cost of Capital)
Free
Operational
CF generation
GROUP | Trend vector from 2021-2026 to 2026-2030 | |
- Attractive earnings growth driven by Rechargeable Battery Materials & Battery Recycling Solutions
- Group growth rate depends on metal prices
-
Group returns above Cost
of Capital across the plan despite sizeable growth investments - Reinvest significant free cash flows of Catalysis & Recycling in E&ST
- Cash flow payback as from second half of decade
Umicore Capital Markets Day 2022 | 5 |
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Umicore NV published this content on 22 June 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 22 June 2022 09:14:05 UTC.
