Financials Welcia Holdings Co., Ltd.

Equities

3141

JP3274280001

Drug Retailers

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-04-26 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
2,295 ^JPY	-0.65%		+1.46%	-6.93%

Apr. 22	Inageya to Book Extraordinary Income of 1.62 Billion Yen in Fiscal 2025 After Share Transfer Agreement with Aeon and Welcia	MT
Apr. 17	Japan's Welcia says president steps down due to 'inappropriate behaviour'	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: February	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	411,568	678,732	708,099	638,907	622,895	474,126	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	436,862	679,134	703,731	678,015	676,112	583,247	503,939	478,688
P/E ratio	23.6 x	29.8 x	25.4 x	24.1 x	23 x	22.1 x	17.3 x	16.2 x
Yield	1.06%	0.77%	0.84%	0.98%	1.07%	1.2%	1.57%	1.65%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.53 x	0.78 x	0.75 x	0.62 x	0.54 x	0.48 x	0.37 x	0.35 x
EV / Revenue	0.56 x	0.78 x	0.74 x	0.66 x	0.59 x	0.48 x	0.39 x	0.36 x
EV / EBITDA	10.4 x	12.7 x	11.7 x	10.9 x	9.82 x	7.97 x	7.4 x	6.74 x
EV / FCF	40 x	15.9 x	27.1 x	-32.5 x	27.9 x	19.7 x	20.5 x	18.6 x
FCF Yield	2.5%	6.29%	3.69%	-3.08%	3.58%	5.08%	4.88%	5.39%
Price to Book	2.88 x	4.2 x	3.95 x	3.17 x	2.76 x	2.46 x	1.84 x	1.66 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	208,389	208,841	207,959	208,453	209,095	206,591	-	-
Reference price ²	1,975	3,250	3,405	3,065	2,979	2,295	2,295	2,295
Announcement Date	4/10/19	4/8/20	4/7/21	4/7/22	4/10/23	4/8/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: February	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	779,148	868,280	949,652	1,025,947	1,144,278	1,217,339	1,280,012	1,343,442
EBITDA ¹	41,853	53,464	59,949	61,979	68,860	65,268	68,067	71,068
EBIT ¹	29,045	37,801	42,974	43,018	45,635	43,231	46,464	49,314
Operating Margin	3.73%	4.35%	4.53%	4.19%	3.99%	3.55%	3.63%	3.67%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	28,511	35,936	41,311	42,410	44,566	40,333	44,546	47,970
Net income ¹	17,423	22,802	27,999	26,453	27,030	26,451	27,612	29,461
Net margin	2.24%	2.63%	2.95%	2.58%	2.36%	2.17%	2.16%	2.19%
EPS ²	83.62	109.2	134.2	127.0	129.4	127.8	133.0	142.0
Free Cash Flow ¹	10,917	42,697	25,962	-20,860	24,228	26,433	24,598	25,804
FCF margin	1.4%	4.92%	2.73%	-2.03%	2.12%	2.16%	1.92%	1.92%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	26.08%	79.86%	43.31%	-	35.18%	40.5%	36.14%	36.31%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	62.66%	187.25%	92.72%	-	89.63%	99.53%	89.08%	87.59%
Dividend per Share ²	21.00	25.00	28.50	30.00	32.00	34.00	36.00	37.80
Announcement Date	4/10/19	4/8/20	4/7/21	4/7/22	4/10/23	4/8/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: February	2020 S1	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	427,456	476,656	259,434	508,295	248,108	269,544	267,716	295,036	562,752	283,234	298,292	298,267	312,750	611,017	299,443	306,879	312,800	328,850	317,050	323,350
EBITDA	-	-	20,023	-	11,805	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	18,388	26,481	15,453	22,735	7,080	13,203	7,713	16,275	23,988	7,480	14,167	7,381	17,354	24,735	6,370	12,126	8,500	17,750	7,050	12,000
Operating Margin	4.3%	5.56%	5.96%	4.47%	2.85%	4.9%	2.88%	5.52%	4.26%	2.64%	4.75%	2.47%	5.55%	4.05%	2.13%	3.95%	2.72%	5.4%	2.22%	3.71%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	18,888	27,394	16,119	24,842	7,682	9,886	10,383	-	27,504	7,148	-	8,608	-	26,424	7,143	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	11,858	17,300	10,220	15,527	4,681	6,245	6,321	10,767	17,088	4,048	5,894	5,126	11,107	16,233	4,149	6,069	5,100	11,900	4,800	4,800
Net margin	2.77%	3.63%	3.94%	3.05%	1.89%	2.32%	2.36%	3.65%	3.04%	1.43%	1.98%	1.72%	3.55%	2.66%	1.39%	1.98%	1.63%	3.62%	1.51%	1.48%
EPS ²	56.84	82.80	49.08	74.58	22.46	29.95	30.30	51.56	81.86	19.35	28.17	24.56	53.69	78.25	20.19	29.39	23.06	54.29	22.73	25.87
Dividend per Share ²	11.50	13.50	15.00	15.00	-	15.00	-	-	16.00	-	16.00	-	-	17.00	-	17.00	-	18.00	-	18.00
Announcement Date	10/9/19	10/7/20	10/6/21	10/6/21	1/7/22	4/7/22	7/5/22	10/4/22	10/4/22	1/10/23	4/10/23	7/10/23	10/10/23	10/10/23	1/9/24	4/8/24	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: February	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	25,294	402	-	39,108	53,217	45,929	29,813	4,562
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	4,368	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	0.6044 x	0.007519 x	-	0.631 x	0.7728 x	0.7037 x	0.438 x	0.0642 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	10,917	42,697	25,962	-20,860	24,228	26,433	24,598	25,804
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	12.8%	15%	16.4%	13.9%	12.7%	11.4%	11.1%	10.9%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	10.2%	11.2%	6.78%	10.6%	10.4%	8.77%	5.15%	6.2%
Assets ¹	171,389	202,740	412,845	249,781	259,267	301,648	536,154	475,427
Book Value Per Share ²	686.0	774.0	863.0	967.0	1,079	1,150	1,248	1,379
Cash Flow per Share ²	145.0	177.0	207.0	209.0	224.0	228.0	254.0	269.0
Capex ¹	15,118	14,644	20,434	25,962	24,634	27,706	25,371	27,383
Capex / Sales	1.94%	1.69%	2.15%	2.53%	2.15%	2.27%	1.98%	2.04%
Announcement Date	4/10/19	4/8/20	4/7/21	4/7/22	4/10/23	4/8/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Welcia Holdings Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2,295 JPY

Average target price

2,827 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+23.17%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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