PURE EXPOSURE TO THE URANIUM COMMODITY
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
December
2023
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1
Yellow Cake
Buy and hold strategy
Pure exposure to the uranium commodity price
Ability to purchase in volume, at the spot price
Inventory stored In safe jurisdictions
Low-cost structure
We purchase uranium and hold for the long-term
No exploration, development or operating risk
Ability to purchase US$100m of U3O8 from Kazatomprom per year
Uranium stored in Canada (Cameco) and France (Orano)
Outsourced operating model
Targeting annual operating costs of <1% of NAV
2
Uranium market update
November 2023
Spot Market Overview(1)
- Activity in the global spot market increased slightly during November with UxC reporting a total of 4.9Mlbs. transacted as compared to 4.5Mlbs. during October 2023. Total spot market volume for the year now stands at 53.0Mlbs.
- While spot market volume remained fairly modest during November, the spot uranium price strengthened significantly having reached US$80.25 /lb. on 20 November, a level not recorded since early 2008. The spot market price ended November at US$81.00 /lb., an increase of US$7.00 /lb. from the end of October (+9.5%)
Long-Term Pricing(1)
- The three longer term uranium price indicators showed further upward movement during November as the 3-yr Forward price rose from
US$75.00 /lb. up to US$79.00 /lb., while the 5-yr Forward Price increased by a comparable amount ending November at US$84.00 /lb. The Long- Term Price showed a more modest increase reaching US$66.00 /lb. at the end of November, an increase of US$1.00 /lb. from the end of October
Cameco(2)
- Cameco (49%) and Brookfield Asset Management / Renewable Partners (51%) announced the completion of the acquisition of Westinghouse Electric Company (7 November), with a final enterprise value of US$8.2 bn
- Cameco reported that to finance its share of the transaction (US$2.1 bn), the company used US$1.5 bn of cash and drew the full amount of both US$300m tranches of the term loan put in place concurrently with the execution of the acquisition agreement
- The announcement went on to state that: "Westinghouse has a stable and predictable core business generating durable cash flows. Like Cameco, Westinghouse has a long-term contract portfolio, which positions it well to compete for growing demand for new nuclear reactors and reactors services, as well as fuel supplies and services needed to keep the global fleet operating safely and reliably."
Sources:
1) | UxC Weekly; "UxC Price Indicators"; 4 December 2023 | 3 |
2) | Cameco Press Release; "Cameco and Brookfield Acquisition of Westinghouse Electric Company Creating a Powerful Platform for Strategic Growth"; 7 November 2023 | |
Uranium market update
November 2023
Kazatomprom(1)
- Kazatomprom released its 3Q23 Operations and Trading Update, which reported a slight decline in Kazakh uranium production for the first nine months of the year (2023 - 39.8Mlbs. compared to 2022 - 40.2Mlbs), but reconfirming the 2023 guidance at 53.3 - 55.9Mlbs. However, the world's largest producer of uranium cautioned that "issues associated with limited access to certain key materials, such as sulfuric acid, remain persistent, and might potentially have a negative impact on 2024 production."
- The company reported that as of the first half of 2023, 58% of all shipments of uranium from Kazakhstan to Western countries were shipped through the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route ("TITR") and that it is expected that for the full year of 2023 the total share of TITR shipments of Kazakhstan's shipments to Western countries will amount up to 71%
Norway(2)
- Norsk Kjernkraft submitted a proposal to Norway's Ministry of Oil and Energy for an assessment into the construction of a power plant based on multiple small modular reactors in the municipalities of Aure and Heim. Once approved by the government agency, the environmental impact assessment phase could begin
- In June, Norsk Kjernkraft signed a letter of intent with TVO Nuclear Service, a consulting company wholly owned by the Finnish utility Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, to jointly investigate the suitability and effectiveness of the development of nuclear power in Norway
Sri Lanka(3)
- The Cabinet of Ministers of Sri Lanka approved a sweeping reform bill (Electricity Act) providing for the unbundling and restructuring of the
Ceylon Electricity Board ("CEB"), the nation's provider of electricity. The CEB has included nuclear power from 2030 under scenarios in its long- term energy plans
Sources:
1) | Kazatomprom Press Release; "Kazatomprom 3Q23 Operations and Trading Update"; 1 November 2023 | |
2) | World Nuclear News; "SMR power plant proposed in Norway"; 3 November 2023 | 4 |
3) | World Nuclear News; "Sri Lankan government has plans for nuclear, minister says"; 21 November 2023 | |
Uranium market update
November 2023
The Philippines / The U.S.(1)
- The United States and the Philippines executed a 123 Agreement addressing nuclear cooperation between the two countries. The Philippine government has committed to pursuing nuclear power especially SMRs within the country as peak energy demands are forecast to nearly quadruple by 2040
- Philippine President, Ferdinand Marcos, stated that the country envisions nuclear energy becoming a component of the Philippine energy mix by 2032
The EU(2)
- The European Parliament adopted its official position on the proposed Net-Zero Industry Act ("NZIA"), which is designed to support Europe's manufacturing output in technologies needed for decarbonization. The MEPs included nuclear fission and fusion amongst the list of 17 technologies addressed by the legislation
- The NZIA sets a target for Europe to produce 40% of its annual deployment needs in net zero technologies by 2030 and to capture 25% of the global market value for these technologies
COP28(3)
- During the World Climate Action Summit of the 28th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention ("COP28"), more than 20 countries lead by the United States, France, Japan Republic of Korea, United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom, launched the Declaration to
Triple Nuclear Energy. The Declaration "recognizes the key role of nuclear energy in achieving global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and keeping the 1.5-degree goal within reach."
Sources:
1) | World Nuclear News; "Nuclear accord signed between USA and Philippines"; 17 November 2023 | |
2) | World Nuclear News; "MEPs fully include nuclear in Net-Zero Industry Act"; 22 November 2023 | |
3) | U.S. Department of State; "At COP28, Countries Launch Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy Capacity by 2050, recognizing the Key role of Nuclear Energy in Reaching Net | 5 |
Zero"; 1 December 2023
Proforma net asset value as at 11 December 2023
Investment in Uranium | Units | ||
Uranium oxide in concentrates ("U₃O₈")(1) | (A) | lbs. | 21,682,318 |
U₃O₈ fair value per pound(2) | (B) | US$ /lb. | 82.30 |
U₃O₈ fair value | (A) x (B) = (C) | US$ mm | 1,784.5 |
Cash and other net current assets / (liabilities)(3) | (D) | US$ mm | 33.3 |
Net asset value in US$ mm | (C) + (D) = (E) | US$ mm | 1,817.8 |
Exchange rate(4) | (F) | USD/GBP | 1.2551 |
Net asset value in £ mm | (E) / (F) = (G) | £ mm | 1,448.3 |
Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury(5) | (H) | 216,856,447 | |
Net asset value per share | (G) / (H) | £ /share | 6.68 |
Source:
- Comprises 20.16Mlbs. U3O8 held as at 11 December 2023, plus 1.53Mlbs. U3O8 which the Company has committed to purchase in H1 2024
- UxC, LLC on 11 December 2023
- Cash and other current assets and liabilities of US$12.7m as at 30 September 2023, plus net placing proceeds of US$120.6m received 2 October 2023, less cash consideration of US$100.0m to be paid to Kazatomprom following delivery of 1.53Mlbs. U3O8 in H1 2024.
- The Bank of England's daily exchange rate on 11 December 2023
5) Estimated proforma net asset value per share on 11 December 2023 is calculated assuming 221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue, less 4,584,283 shares held in treasury on | 6 |
that date | |
Yellow Cake corporate summary
Corporate overview
Last share price(1) | £5.95 |
NAV per share(2) | £6.68 |
Market cap (mm)(1) | £1,290.3 |
Shares outstanding less those held | 216.9 |
in treasury (mm) | |
Shares held in treasury (mm)(2) | 4.6 |
52 week high | £5.95 |
52 week low | £3.53 |
GBP share price and uranium price L12M(1,3)
90 | |
80 | |
(US$/lb.) | 70 |
60 | |
SpotPrice | |
40 | |
50 | |
Uranium | 30 |
20 |
8.00
7.00
6.00
(£) | |
4.00 | SharePrice |
5.00 | |
3.00 | Cake |
Yellow | |
2.00 | |
Analyst coverage and rating
Buy
10 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dec 22 Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 | Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Uranium Spot Price | Yellow Cake Share Price | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Buy | Blue chip shareholder register |
Buy | |
Buy
MMCAP Fund
Hold | JD Squared |
Source:
- Cap IQ on 11 December 2023
- Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 11 December 2023. See calculation on page 6
3) UxC, LLC 11 December 2023 | 7 |
U3O8 spot price has recovered to levels at the time of the Fukushima accident(1,2)
/lb.)
Current spot price | ||
90 | 11 December 2023 | |
Fukushima accident | (Spot US$82.30) | |
11 March 2011 | ||
80 | (Spot US$68.08) | |
70 | SPUT completes | |
UPC acquisition | ||
19 July 2021 | ||
(Spot US$32.41) |
60
Yellow Cake IPO
U3O8 Spot Price (US$
50
40
5 July 2018
(Spot US$22.94)
30 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Driven by | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fukushima, overall | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | demand falls on | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
safety concerns | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2011-2016 | Covid driven | Russia invades | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ukraine | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Supply cuts by major | curtailments add to | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 24 February 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
producers stabilise | supply pressure | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pricing | March 2020 | (Spot US$45.00) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2016 | (Spot US$24.75) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Jan 11 | Jan 12 | Jan 13 | Jan 14 | Jan 15 | Jan 16 | Jan 17 | Jan 18 | Jan 19 | Jan 20 | Jan 21 | Jan 22 | Jan 23 |
Uranium Spot Price | Yellow Cake Equity Raises | ||
Source: | |||
1) UxC, LLC, "Historical Daily Broker Average Price", 11 December 2023 | 8 |
- McKinsey, "Uranium Commodity Perspective", December 2022
Decarbonisation
Climate change and energy transition supporting nuclear growth
9
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Disclaimer
Yellow Cake plc published this content on 18 December 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 19 December 2023 12:43:05 UTC.