Positive macro picture for U.S. consumers - BNP Paribas
February 13, 2015 at 11:25 am EST
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BNP Paribas U.S. Economist Laura Rosner says the macro picture for the U.S. consumer is actually quite positive.
SHOWS: NEW YORK, NEW YORK, USA (FEBRUARY 13, 2015) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)
1. BNP PARIBAS, U.S. ECONOMIST, LAURA ROSNER, SAYING:
JOURNALIST ASKING LAURA ROSNER: 'So January retail sales are coming out tomorrow, we saw last month they recorded the largest decline in 11 months, demand fell across the board, but now we have a little bit of a better situation there is a strengthening labour market, lower gas prices, although people aren't really spending that much. Many economists are expecting an improvement. What would you say are the macro issues currently facing the U.S. consumer as we stand now?'
ROSNER: 'So the macro picture for the consumer is actually quite positive. On the one hand we have stimulus coming from lower gasoline prices and that is quite powerful in our view. We think that is will boost real GDP growth by as much as 1 percentage point, maybe a little bit less over a two year horizon. The fact is we have seen gasoline prices now fall for over 6 months. So I think consumers may have more confidence that the price decline is going to stick. It might be a little bit more confident to start spending some of that savings. So we have the gasoline price stimulus in addition to the fact that we have had a really impressive run of labour market data, more people are working, we had nearly a million jobs added to the economy in the fourth quarter. Unemployment is low at 5.7 percent, people are coming back to the labour force to search for jobs. So it is quite positive and I think this is going to boost spending over the next several months, not just in January.'
BNP Paribas is France's largest banking group. Net banking product (NBP) breaks down by activity as follows:
- retail banking (54%): retail banking activity in France (24.1% of NBP), in Belgium (14.6%), and Italy (10.2%). The remainder of the NBP (51.1%) is from international activities and specialized financial services activities (consumer loans, real estate credit, leasing credit, car fleet management, computer equipment leasing);
- finance and investment banking (34.4%): consulting and capital market activities (83.7% of NBP; merger-acquisition consulting, activities related to the stock, interest, and exchange markets, etc.) and financing (16.3%; financing for acquisitions, projects, raw material transactions, etc.);
- institutional and private management and insurance (11.6%): asset management, private banking activity (No. 1 in France), real estate and on-line brokerage services, insurance and securities services (No. 1 in Europe for retained securities).
At the end of 2023, BNP Paribas was managing EUR 988.5 billion in current deposits and EUR 859.2 billion in current loans.
Net banking product is distributed geographically as follows: Europe, Middle East and Africa (82.9%), America (9.8%) and Asia/Pacific (7.3%).