London prices were seen ending 2020 at 1,475 pounds a tonne, down 10% from Friday's close and 17% lower than levels seen at the end of 2019, according to the median forecast of survey participants.

Respondents forecast a 220,000 tonne surplus in the upcoming 2020/21 season. They predicted a 5,000 tonne deficit for next season in a late January poll, but have changed tack as COVID-19 upends the market.

For this season, respondents now expect a 35,000 tonne surplus, having forecast a 70,000 tonne deficit in January.

"Producers anticipated higher prices (next season) because of the $400 living income differential (LID) and (have) maintained production best care practices," said Judith Ganes of J Ganes Consulting.

"Therefore, production will improve, assuming good weather, but demand will remain weak," she said, noting tepid demand for food from hotels, restaurants and big events such as weddings and that Halloween chocolate sales will likely be weak.

The LID is the fixed $400 a tonne premium Ivory Coast and Ghana introduced last July on all cocoa sales for the 2020/21 season. They promised to use the funds raised to guarantee farmers 70% of a $2,600 minimum target price.

Critics say the premium tempts farmers to overproduce.

Ivory Coast cocoa production in 2020/21 was seen rising to 2.24 million tonnes next season in the poll, while Ghana's 2020/21 crop was projected up at 860,000 tonnes. This season, Ivory Coast will produce 2.15 million tonnes of cocoa, while Ghana's output will reach 800,000 tonnes, according to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).

New York cocoa prices were also seen falling from current levels, with a year-end projection of $2,200 a tonne, down 8% from Friday's close and 13% from levels seen at the end of 2019.

(Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

By Maytaal Angel