Unfavourable weather conditions in the world's biggest wheat producer after China could oblige the country to import the staple to ensure affordable supplies for its 1.4 billion people.
So far the government has resisted calls for wheat imports that could irk farmers ahead of a general election, expected by April.
Monthly maximum temperatures for February are likely to be above normal over most parts of northwestern India, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a virtual news conference.
Temperatures are also likely to be above normal over western central India and some parts of eastern central India, he said.
India's northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh and the central state of Madhya Pradesh are the top wheat-growing areas.
Next month, minimum temperatures are also expected to be above normal in most parts of the country, Mohapatra said.
Wheat, a winter crop, tends to wilt in dry conditions.
Hot and unseasonably warm weather hit India's wheat output in 2022 and 2023, leading to a sharp drawdown in state reserves.
Trade and industry officials say a third straight poor harvest would oblige India to import some wheat.
A long cold spell helped wheat during its vegetative growth, but a rise in temperatures, as expected in the next few days, could impact the crop during the grain formation stage.
India's wheat harvest in 2023 was at least 10% lower than the government's estimate of around 112 million metric tons.
As a result, inventories dropped to the lowest level in seven years, with prices rising far above the government-set minimum support price.
(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav and Mayank Bhardwaj; editing by Barbara Lewis)
By Rajendra Jadhav and Mayank Bhardwaj
