While we often talk about the euro as a geographic zone, we shouldn't forget the other major economies that make up the G10. Broadening the spectrum can either help you form an opinion (remember a previous disgression on the notion of plurality) or establish new investment ideas. Let's take a look at the past. For several months now, the weakest currencies in the G10 zone have been the NOK, ZAR and JPY, while the strongest are essentially European, with the EURO, CHF and GBP. If we widen our field of reference to South American currencies, oh surprise, we find MXN and BRL at the top of the list.

In order to avoid any misinterpretation, the above ranking is based on the relative performance of the various currencies over the last few months and not over the past week(s). The case of the EURO is a good illustration of this. Between October 2022 and last February, the European currency rose from 0.9530 to 1.1030 against the dollar. In terms of momentum, it is well positioned, even if it has been consolidating flat since then. Until we have proof to the contrary, we can therefore consider that the current consolidation is allowing previous gains to be digested, and that once completed, the underlying uptrend should resume. Hence the importance of trying to identify possible turning points in advance.

Commodity currencies, led by the Aussi and Kiwi, have been particularly hard hit by the dollar's recent recovery, breaking sufficiently high technical levels to suggest that it's best to avoid taking positions in these pairs, even if the dollar turns downwards. It's better to prefer European currencies.

We'll be keeping an eye on support at 1.0543 on the EUR/USD, alongside 105.88 on the Dollar Index, and watching for any reversal patterns to position ourselves. The first resistance on the USDCHF is very close at 0.9088, with a max of 0.9200 to maintain the downward momentum.