COVID-19
One Ocean, Two Shores: Time to Reconnect
Ezgi Gulbas
Senior Economist
28th July 2021
1
Mid-year but not mid-of the crisis for international travel
Int. RPKs -80.9%, domestic RPKs -22.4%, CTKs +9.9% (Jun 21 vs Jun19)
RPKs and Seasonally adjusted CTKs (indexed, Jan 2020 = 100)
120 | Cargo tonne km (CTKs) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
110 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
1st Half 2021 vs 1st Half 2019 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
✓ Revenue Passenger | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
90 | Domestic RPKs | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | Kilometers (RPKs): -66.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
✓ Domestic: -33.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | ✓ International: -85.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
50 | ✓ Cargo Tonne Kilometers | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
(CTKs): +8.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | International RPKs | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | Mar-19 | Apr-19 | May-19 | Jul-19 | Aug-19 | Sep-19 | Oct-19 | Nov-19 | Dec-19 | Mar-20 | Apr-20 | May-20 | Jul-20 | Aug-20 | Sep-20 | Oct-20 | Nov-20 | Dec-20 | Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21 | ||||||
Jan-19 | Feb-19 | Jun-19 | Jan-20 | Feb-20 | Jun-20 |
Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Monthly Statistics
Vaccination progresses but travel controls remain strict
75% of countries have strict requirements beyond screening
Global Vaccination Progress
Total vaccination doses administered per 100 population | |
90 | Europe |
80 | |
70 | North |
America | |
60 | |
50 | World |
40 | |
30 | |
20 | |
10 | |
0 | |
Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21 |
International Travel Controls | |||
Globally | Number of | ||
182 | 182 | ||
countries | |||
Total border closure | 28 | 23 | |
Ban on | 60 | 3 among | |
67 | every 4 | ||
high-risk regions | countries | ||
have strict | |||
international | |||
52 | travel | ||
Quarantine from | 44 | controls | |
high-risk regions | |||
Screening | 43 | 46 | |
No measures | 0 | 1 | |
Jan-21 | Jun-21 |
Source: IATA Economics using data from Oxford University and Our World in Data
Connectivity across North Atlantic remains limited
Governments are risk averse despite rapid vaccination on both ends
Flights between North America and Europe 45000
40000
35000 | |
30000 | -73% |
25000 |
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jun-21
May-21
Apr-21
Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Source: IATA Economics using OAG data
North Atlantic routes key for Europe and the US…
…representing the main source of their international pax revenues
Key international revenue markets for the US,
% share of total US int'l passenger revenues
Key international revenue markets for Europe,
% share of total Europe int'l passenger revenues
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
Source: IATA Economics using DDS
Source: IATA Economics using DDS, *Europe refers to EU27, UK, Norway and Switzerland combined
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IATA - International Air Transport Association published this content on 28 July 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 28 July 2021 13:53:09 UTC.