By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for March delivery climbed 0.6% to $12.13 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, following gains in soybean-meal futures in an otherwise quiet trading day.

--Corn for March delivery edged 0.3% higher to $4.43 3/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for March delivery rose 0.3% to $5.84 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Product Placement: Funds were said to be buying into soybean meal, providing a technical boost for soybean futures, AgResource said in a note. Market news has been limited and trading cut short this week by Monday's holiday.

Mounting Hostilities: The slowdown in shipping in the Red and Black Seas is creating new stress and adding upward pressure to prices in commodities like grains and oil. Analysts say the strife in the Red Sea is adding to supply constraints seen in the Black Sea, where Ukraine and Russia continue to battle. The Wall Street Journal reports that Red Sea cargo volumes have fallen roughly 10% since hostilities began, while shipping costs and freight rates are higher.


INSIGHT


Rising Tide: Export sales of U.S. corn, wheat and soybeans are expected to come in above the weak levels seen last week, analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal said. Analysts expect corn exports may total 500,000 metric tons to 1.2 million tons, up from 487,600 tons reported last week by the USDA. For wheat, sales are forecast between 150,000 tons and 500,000 tons versus 128,100 tons last week. Soybean sales are forecast between 400,000 tons and 900,000 tons, versus 280,400 tons reported last week.

Change in Mentality: Analysts and traders are bracing themselves for a sudden bout of short-covering as they view grain futures as oversold. Many traders are getting their books ready for a big news event to shock funds out of their extensive short positions. "If something happens to spark short covering, we could see a sizable upside move," Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. "The big question is, what will cause it and when will it happen? This is what sophisticated longer term traders are setting up for."

Break in the Drudgery: U.S. winter wheat has been beset with very cold temperatures, which would be a source for winterkill except for snow cover protecting crops. Milder air is expected to travel through the Plains starting on Sunday, after a system with mild snow travels through Friday and Saturday, DTN said in a note. Some areas, like Oklahoma and Texas, are still susceptible to cold hurting their wheat. Once warmer air comes to growing areas, rain is expected in these areas.

Off From the Peak: Prices for farmland, among the top-gaining assets in the U.S., may have peaked and are coming back to earth, said Ty Kreitman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Kreitman said interest costs on new farmland loans exceeded that of average annual appreciation of farmland values in 2023 for the first time since 2001. This shift is occurring as input costs to farm stay high and grain futures prices slide, squeezing farmers.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-18-24 1517ET