By Kirk Maltais


-Soybeans for May delivery fell 0.5% to $11.39 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with a transition into warmer weather next month boding well for the upcoming planting season - which is expected to add pressure to already ample supplies.

-Wheat for May delivery rose 0.3% to $5.76 1/2 a bushel.

-Corn for May delivery rose 0.4% to $4.30 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Setting the Table: For futures that are under pressure due to increasingly available supplies, indications of a strong planting season were a source of weight on futures. "We are cold today over the US, but turning warmer and wetter for the next two weeks at least, with the trade already talking about spring planting," said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. Corn and soybeans oscillated between higher and lower for the day.

Volatile Ending: CBOT grains bounced around throughout the day, with fundamentals not affecting the complex as much as a spree of short-covering ahead of the new month, Price Futures Group's Jack Scoville said in a note. "Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold," said Scoville. First Notice Day for CBOT futures tomorrow has been a landmark for fund traders, which has been the impetus for most of this week's short-covering.


INSIGHT


Flooding the Market: Exports of wheat out of Russia in February are likely to exceed the record high for the month set in 2021, said SovEcon in a note. The firm estimates Russian wheat exports totaled 3.8 million metric tons this month. Lower prices for Russian wheat have helped boost their export numbers, which in turn has put pressure on world wheat prices. "Russian traders could gradually lower export prices further amid declining domestic prices and a weakening ruble," said the firm. Russian competition has pressured CBOT wheat this week.

Below the Mark: Export sales of U.S. soybeans again fell below analyst estimates this week, according to the latest export sales report from the USDA. In its latest weekly report, the USDA said that soybean sales for the 2023/24 marketing year totaled 159,700 metric tons. While up from last week's report, the total still missed the low end of estimates from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week--driven in large part by a reduction of 392,600 tons previously sold to unknown destinations. Corn and wheat sales fell within analyst forecasts, the USDA said.

Head Start: Mild weather in some areas of the U.S. Corn Belt has some farmers applying fertilizer to fields earlier than usual, which appears to be giving prices a small boost after flatlining since the start of the year. In its latest assessment, DTN says that prices rose for 6 of the 8 major fertilizer groups the firm tracks for the week ended Feb. 23. Even so, prices across the board for these fertilizers are well below where they were at this time last year, and even further under the record prices set in 2022. The early start bodes well for companies that sell fertilizer, said John Stewart & Associates in a separate note - and helps advance the narrative of ample crop supplies in the U.S.


AHEAD


-The USDA will release its monthly Grain Crushings report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-Ag Growth International will release its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings report after the stock market closes Tuesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-29-24 1518ET