By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for March delivery fell 2.4% to $5.82 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, with snowfall in growing areas insulating the winter wheat crop from fatally cold temperatures.

-Corn for March delivery fell 0.8% to $4.43 3/4 a bushel.

-Soybeans for March delivery rose 0.3% to $12.28 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Limited Exposure: The arctic vortex that brought subzero temperatures to the central U.S. growing areas looks to have caused only limited damage -- with existing snow cover insulating wheat crops, agricultural research firm DTN said. Even so, some areas in the Plains and Midwest remain at risk for winterkill, according to the firm. "Much of the winter wheat crop is covered by recent snow, but much of Oklahoma and Texas have been uncovered and are more susceptible to winterkill," DTN said, adding that other areas in the Midwest also are lacking snow cover.

Maintaining the Trend: Friday's WASDE report showed higher-than-expected production and stocks for U.S. crops--particularly corn - which continued to pressure grains today. "It was hard to find something fundamentally supportive in Friday's reports with widespread USDA's revisions that were mostly negative," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note. Also pressuring corn was a higher U.S. dollar.

Managing Expectations: Soybeans received limited support today from dropping production estimates in Brazil. "Brazilian soy estimates continue to fall but most would argue those moves are priced in," Matt Zeller of StoneX said in a note. In its latest forecast, consultancy AgRural cut its projection for soybeans by roughly 9 million metric tons, to just above 150 million tons. Even so, Zeller added that forecasts for weather in Brazil continue to project more beneficial rains ahead.


INSIGHT


Losing Streak: Exports of wheat out of Russia fell for a third consecutive month, Andrey Sizov of SovEcon said in a note. SovEcon forecasted that last month's export sales fell below the 3.9 million metric ton-mark Russia hit the previous month. The lack of competitiveness of Russian wheat prices appear to be a signal for prices around the world to move lower. "The competitiveness of Russian wheat compared to European suppliers has diminished," the firm said. "Efforts by the Russian government to regulate wheat prices might be influencing its global market competitiveness." French wheat is cheaper currently, SovEcon said.

Adding Shorts: Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed an uptick in fund traders entering into short positions for grains across the board, with lower prices expected after better-than-expected supply metrics for U.S. grains in the WASDE report. While the CFTC report is lagging, covering trading up to Jan. 9, the trader mentality surrounding these futures looks to be little changed -- with WASDE data exacerbating the selling pressure. With larger short positions, a sudden influx of news could spark a rash of short-covering sending prices up.


AHEAD


-The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 11 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-16-24 1516ET