By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for July delivery rose 1.8% to $11.90 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Monday, after Russia declined to lift its blockade on Black Sea ports to allow Ukrainian grain shipments.

--Corn for July delivery rose 1% to $7.86 1/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for July delivery fell 1.1% to $16.87 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Block in a Hard Place: Wheat futures led the agricultural complex higher in reaction to Russia's rejection of lifting its blockade of Black Sea ports. "Russia demanded that such grain corridors could only be accepted with a full retraction of NATO's economic sanctions," said AgResource in a note. "The dropping of sanctions is highly unlikely as they are NATO's only nonmilitary response to the Russian war."

Race Against Time: The USDA's Crop Progress report due out this afternoon is expected to show a large uptick in corn acres planted in the U.S. over the past week - although corn not yet planted is expected to incur significant yield penalties. "For corn there are yield penalties that begin to set in once you plant beyond [the] middle of May, which a lot of acres are going to be," said Richard Buttenshaw of Marex in a note. "Whilst the summer weather can make up for later planting, at the moment the bias remains still warmer and drier for the Corn Belt." Last week, the corn crop was shown at 49% complete, versus a 5-year average of 67%.

Switching Out: While corn and wheat futures finished higher, soybeans dropped - with traders anticipating that delayed corn planting may cause U.S. farmers to plant more soybeans instead, in an effort to maximize their crop yields. "It's thought that if we don't get enough corn planted -- optimal time is mid-May -- those acres go to soybeans," Donna Hughes of StoneX told the WSJ. As of last week's Crop Progress report, both corn and soybeans planting are below the 5-year average pace, although for soybeans it's 9 points below while for corn it's 18 points.


INSIGHTS


Higher Target: Export bans seen globally for wheat are pushing up expectations for average prices. Capital Economics said that it's raising its estimates for global wheat prices - forecasting that they will maintain an average of $12 per bushel through the summer before falling to $9 per bushel by the end of the year. Prices could be even higher if more export bans like the one instituted by India take place. "Further export restrictions are a large upside risk to our forecast," said Olivia Cross of Capital Economics. "The rise in export restrictions this year has been a worrying trend, and each tightening only serves to limit supplies, push up prices further and increase the likelihood of even more restrictions."

Short-Term Profit-Taking: Soybean selling may be a blip in the overall upward trend seen in soybeans over the past two weeks. "Fundamentally there are plenty of bullish issues to underpin prices at this level," Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities told the WSJ. "A 20-cent turn down today is almost insignificant." Over the past two weeks, soybean futures have risen 6.5%, in anticipation of strong export sales for U.S. beans, making today's selling appear to be profit-taking by some traders.


AHEAD:


--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-Sanderson Farms Inc. will release its second quarter earnings report on Thursday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-23-22 1532ET