By Paulo Trevisani


--Wheat for March delivery fell 3.4% to $6.06 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, leading a broader decline in grains futures in the first trading session of 2024.

--Soybeans for March delivery fell 1.9% to $12.73 2/4 a bushel.

--Corn for March delivery fell 1.4% to $4.63 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Bad Start: Grain futures started 2024 with a loss, led by a sharp decline in wheat. "Wheat markets overall have shrugged off the rise in intensity of Russian [and] Ukrainian attacks," AgResource said in a note. Rainfall in Brazil over the past few days is expected to reduce harvest losses, causing soybeans and corn futures to slide. "Still-thin volume has exacerbated flat price movement," AgResource said. The firm added that Argentine grains production is recovering, but it remains unclear whether producers will sell the new supply as the country struggles with rampant inflation.

Russian Wheat: "Higher Russia supplies of wheat is viewed as limiting the upside," Total Farm Marketing's Naomi Blohm said in a note. "Continued escalation in the Middle East needs to be monitored," she said. The USDA said wheat export inspection declined to 273,671 metric tons last week from 461,431 tons the week before, while the accumulated market year total remains lower than a year earlier.


INSIGHT


Brazilian Rain: Rainfall in Brazil is expected to bring some relief to crops battered by a severe drought, while markets struggle to pinpoint how much has been already lost. Still, the recent rainfall weighed down prices "after Brazil saw as expected rain over the weekend," Marex's Terry Reilly said in a note.

Shaky Year: Grain futures are likely to be volatile in 2024, "providing opportunities for all sides of the marketplace," AgResource analysts said in a note. The new year began with price weakness across the grain complex, driven in part by rainfall in Brazil beneficial to local crops. But it remains unclear how long the benign weather will last and Brazilian soy estimates "continue to erode," AgResource said. The firm added: "The biggest risk in grain markets in the long run is spring weather adversity in major exporting wheat markets...and a premature exit or Brazil's rainy season in Mar/early Apr."


AHEAD


--Cal-Maine Foods will release its fiscal second-quarter 2024 earnings report at 4:05 p.m. ET Wednesday.

--Conagra Foods will release its fiscal second-quarter 2024 earnings report at 7:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 11 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Paulo Trevisani at paulo.trevisani@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-02-24 1516ET