By Kirk Maltais


-- Corn for July delivery rose 1.1% to $7.98 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Monday, with traders viewing weather over the weekend as keeping corn planting limited.

-- Wheat for July delivery fell 0.3% to $10.72 1/2 a bushel.

-- Soybeans for July delivery fell 0.8% to $16.75 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Rainy Days: Grain traders are keen to see the USDA's latest crop progress report, which is due this afternoon. It comes after rain fell in areas of the U.S. Midwest over the weekend, keeping many farmers out of their fields and unable to plant.

"Planting progress has been slow as the Midwest is getting untimely rain," said Craig Turner of Daniels Trading in a note. "I can tell you from first-hand experience that Illinois is having a late start to spring."

Dryness further west, including a wildfire in Nebraska, is also affecting corn planting.


Covid Crush: Soybean futures led the CBOT lower for much of the day, pressured by issues in outside markets. Challenges to China's zero-Covid strategy are stoking fears about disruptions to China's supply chains. Indonesia scaling back its previously announced ban on palm oil exports also weighed on soybeans in particular.


INSIGHTS


$10 Target: Some corn farmers in the U.S. are expecting that prices for corn could rally to as high as $10 per bushel, which would easily exceed the all-time record of nearly $8.40 per bushel seen in September 2012.

The uptick to a record high is largely contingent on how much corn farmers get planted this season.

"We have rainy and cooler-than-normal temps that will delay plantings again this week with no timetable when Mother Nature will spawn spring weather," said Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note. "With the July corn trading near $7.90 [per bushel], $10 corn does not seem impossible to fathom."


Clogged System: A backup in the U.S. rail system is impacting grain shipments, as well as shipments of ethanol. According to written testimony by the Renewable Fuels Association ahead of a Surface Transportation Board hearing beginning Tuesday, the dwell time -- time at a scheduled stop without moving -- for ethanol-carrying trains has more than doubled occasionally.

"In some cases where on-site storage is reaching capacity, some producers are having to reduce ethanol production rates until cars are made available." said the RFA.

According to data from the EIA, the daily rate of ethanol production in the U.S. has declined over 9% in the past month, to 947,000 barrels per day in the agency's latest assessment.


AHEAD


-- Archer Daniels Midland is scheduled to release its first-quarter earnings before the stock market opens on Tuesday.

-- Ethanol producer Valero Energy Corp. is due to release its first-quarter earnings before the stock market opens on Tuesday.

-- Bunge Ltd. is scheduled to release its first-quarter earnings before the stock market opens on Wednesday.

-- The EIA is due to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

-- Pilgrims Pride Corp. is scheduled to release its first- quarter earnings after the stock market closes on Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-25-22 1552ET