By Kirk Maltais


--Corn for December delivery fell 2.8% to $5.73 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, in response to Russia restarting its Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline and the potential outline for a deal to allow Black Sea grain exports.

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 2.3% to $13.01 1/2 a bushel.

--Wheat for September delivery fell 1.6% to $8.06 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Flip of a Switch: Russia's restart of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline put pressure on commodities today - with weakness in energy permeating throughout the market. "Gas is once again flowing from Russia to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and that is bringing a lot selling into the crude and natural gas markets and that negativity is spilling over into the grain markets this morning," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note. Improved weather forecasts in the U.S. also undercut futures, Mr. Pfitzenmaier added.

Let's Make a Deal: For CBOT grains, indications that a potential deal could soon reopen export corridors in the Black Sea also pressured prices. The Wall Street Journal reports that negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations have created an outline for a deal - with further negotiations happening this week. "There are details that have yet to be worked out, but hope for a signed deal can happen on any day," said AgResource in a note. But the firm adds that traders are skeptical of such a deal coming to fruition.


INSIGHTS


Wall of Uncertainty: While weather developments in crop-growing regions continue to be closely followed by the USDA, extended fighting in Ukraine looks to be a factor that could seismically shift forecasts in the coming months. "We've got a tremendous amount of uncertainty - we've got our classic uncertainties, and we've got other uncertainties," Seth Meyer, the USDA's chief economist, told the WSJ in an interview. While USDA forecasts have already factored in significant constraints for Ukrainian grain exports, Dr. Meyer said, further unseen factors affecting how the conflict plays out can lead to significant changes - with the USDA in the unusual position of gauging Ukraine's abilities to produce a crop and export it versus normal considerations for the world supply picture. "We're used to the vagaries of weather. This is a totally different event," he said.

Beijing Bounce: Export sales of U.S. grains turned higher this week, exceeding trader expectations with China being a leading buyer of soybeans. In its report for the week ended July 7, the USDA said that sales of soybeans across both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years totaled 458,200 metric tons. This fell on the high-end of expectations among traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, who had forecast total sales to range from a net reduction of 100,000 tons to sales of 500,000 tons. For old-crop soybeans, which were expected to be net-negative amid large reductions in previously-announced sales, selling to China, Indonesia, Germany, and Japan offset a reduction of 172,900 tons previously announced as sold to unknown destinations.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Food Prices report at 9 a.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Grains Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-21-22 1549ET