Mib rises to 27,300 area; Mediobanca the outrider

(Alliance News) - On Monday, major European financial markets closed on a bullish trend, with the Mib placing the point bar in the 27,300 area, in the week when important monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the Central Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are on the calendar.

On Eccles Building, in the CME Group platform's FedWatch Tool, using futures also based on the actual federal funds rate, or EFFR, the confirmation of the rate at the Nov. 1 meeting has a 99 percent probability for confirmation range 525/550 bps. In contrast, the 25 bps rise in the 550/575 bps target is priced at 1%.

As for the Bank of England, markets are equally positioned on a confirmation of the current rate, as well as for the Bank of Japan. On the latter, it should be remembered that it is the only major central bank not to have raised interest rates in the past two years, keeping the benchmark rate at minus 0.1 percent despite inflation being above its 2 percent target.

Instead, the spotlight on the Japanese bank is on its yield curve control, which recently has - albeit "de facto" - allowed the band to go beyond the previously set 0.5 percent, with yields hovering near 0.9 percent.

On the Eurotower, trading rooms are carefully assessing comments from ECB members, along with positive data from Germany. Governing Council members Simkus and Kazimir warned against declaring victory over inflation too soon and deemed discussions of rate cuts for the first half of next year as premature. Among the economic data, there is a milder-than-expected contraction of the German economy and a decrease in inflationary pressures on the Old Continent's leading economy.

As a result, the FTSE Mib closed up 0.2 percent at 27,339.91, the Mid-Cap rose 0.7 percent to 37,862.06, the Small-Cap gained 0.3 percent to 24,062.96, and Italy Growth closed in fractional green at 7,595.51.

London's FTSE 100 advanced 0.5 percent, Paris' CAC 40 closed up 0.4 percent while Frankfurt's DAX 40 picked up 0.1 percent.

On the main list of Piazza Affari, good session for Mediobanaca, which closed up 3.5 percent with price at EUR11.05 per share after two sessions of losses.

Also advancing well was Saipem, which led the price up 3.2% to EUR1.43. Of note, Société générale raised its target price to EUR2.36 from EUR2.30 with a 'buy' recommendation.

UniCredit -- in the money with 1.8 percent -- announced on Monday the start of the first tranche of 2023 share buyback approved by the shareholders' meeting last October 27, for a maximum amount of EUR2.5 billion and for a number of shares not exceeding 160 million. The first tranche is expected to be completed indicatively by March 2024.

Telecom Italia, on the other hand, closed up 0.2 percent at EUR0.2417. As Francesco Bonazzi writes in Alliance News, "Piazza Affari does not believe in the possibility of a Telecom network derby, both because of the government's clear stance in favor of the KKR option and the fact that Palazzo Chigi always has Golden Power at its disposal. However, aside from the cold reception received by the Merlyn Partners fund's plan, there remains the knot of Vivendi, which would benefit from the scenario outlined by the Luxembourg fund.

"Telecom Italia is facing perhaps decisive days ahead, with two board meetings scheduled for next Friday and Sunday. While the deadline for the offer of the U.S. fund KKR, which has the support of the government and the involvement of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, is set for November 8," Bonazzi points out.

The board of directors of Amplifon -- down 1.5 percent -- on Monday approved financial data as of Sept. 30, a period that ended with net income on a recurring basis of EUR112.8 million, down 5.7 percent from EUR119.6 million recorded in the first nine months of 2022, " due to lower operating leverage, higher depreciation and amortization and increased financial expenses," the company note said.

In the cadet segment, Fincantieri advanced well, closing up 5.8 percent, coloring the daily candle green for the third consecutive session.

Technogym -- up 1.1 percent -- reported Monday that total revenues for the first nine months amounted to EUR565.2 million, up 13 percent from EUR498.7 million in the same period a year earlier. The growth, the company explained, was due to double-digit increases recorded in almost all geographical areas, with above-average performance for Europe, MEIA and LATAM.

The board of directors of Piaggio -- in the green by 1.1 percent -- on Monday approved the interim report as of September 30, showing a net profit of EUR85.7 million, the highest value recorded in the reporting period, up 21 percent from EUR70.9 million as of September 30, 2022. The group's consolidated net revenues were EUR1.62 billion in line with revenues as of September 30 last year.

Anima Holding - up 0.3 percent - reported Monday that it bought back 715,246 of its own ordinary shares from Oct. 23 to Oct. 27. The weighted average price was EUR3.85 per share, for a total amount of about EUR2.8 million.

On the SmallCap, TXT e-solutions--up 1.4 percent--reported on Friday that it purchased 17,749 of its own ordinary shares in the days between October 16 and 20. The price charged was about EUR15.70 per share, totaling nearly EUR270,000.

The buy side also prevailed well on Seri Industrial, which closed in the green by 2.7 percent, rebounding after eight sessions closed with a negative balance.

On a negative note, among the many, Mondo TV left 9.4 percent on the parterre, for the fourth in a row with a bearish candle.

Red also for Gabetti, which closed 0.2 percent negative, following up the previous three bearish sessions.

Among SMEs, Digital Magics closed bullish by 5.1 percent, in its seventh session on the bullish side.

Ambromobilare, on the other hand, rallied 4.7 percent, following the previous session's 3.7 percent red.

At the tail end Convergenze left over 10 percent on the parterre at EUR1.52 per share. High trading volume of over 32,000 was recorded on the stock, compared to a 52-week daily average of just under 4,900.

G Rent, on the other hand, gave up 6.2 percent, priced at EUR0.83 and bringing its liabilities since the beginning of 2023 to more than 57 percent.

In New York, the Dow is advancing 1.0%, while the Nasdaq is advancing 0.5% as is the S&P 500.

Among currencies, the euro changes hands at USD1.0608 against USD1.0579 recorded in Friday's European equities close while the pound is worth USD1.2146 from USD1.2144 as of Friday.

Among commodities, Brent crude is worth USD88.30 per barrel from USD88.42 per barrel at Friday's close. Gold, on the other hand, trades at USD2,000.50 an ounce from USD1,981.79 an ounce Friday evening.

Tuesday's economic calendar includes at 0030 CET Japan's industrial production, at 0230 CET China's manufacturing PMI while at 0400 CET the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, followed at 0730 CET by the president's press conference.

At 0800 CET, room for Germany's retail sales while at 1000 CET will come Italy's Gross Domestic Product, followed at 1100 CET by Italy's and the Eurozone's inflation rates.

At 1110 CET, an auction of BTPs with 5- and 10-year maturities is scheduled while, at 1200 CET, eyes on Italy's producer price index.

From the US, at 1400 CET, focus on the house price index and at 2130 CET on weekly oil stocks.

On the corporate calendar, coming up are the results of BasicNet, Carel Industries, NVP, Relatech and Stellantis.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News reporter

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