A Progressive Montney Producer for the New
Energy Market
Investor Presentation | November 2023 |
Advantage Corporate Highlights
(1)
Market Overview
Market Capitalization: $1.6 b
Enterprise Value: $1.8 b
Net Debt(2): Advantage $206.7 m Entropy $10.4 m
Shares Outstanding: 165.3 m
TSX 52-week high/low: AAV $12.19 - $6.79
2023 Guidance (3)
Strategic focus: AFF per share(2) growth
59,000 to 62,500 BOE/d
$250 m to $280 m capital spending
Outsized liquids growth
All free cash flow(2) dedicated to buybacks
Alberta
BC
Pure Play Montney Producer
Decades of top-tier inventory
Glacier Gas Plant capacity of 425 mmcf/d
Operating cost ~$0.61/mcfe
Carbon Capture and Storage Developer
Subsidiary Entropy Inc. financed by Brookfield
Developing global scale "pipeline" of projects
Post-combustion CCS project at Glacier is
first-in-kind globally
Ownership of leading solvent and process technologies to drive costs below $40/tonne
1. Advantage was recognized by the TSX as one of the top 30 issuers based on 3-yeardividend-adjusted share price performance (www.tsx.com/tsx30).
2. | See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these measures, | 2 |
which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation. | ||
3. | All 2023 Guidance excludes the financial and operating results of Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage. |
Corporate Strategy - Strength Across the Board
Performance
10% annual production growth
Net debt(1) target of $170 m to $230 m(2)
Bought back ~16% of shares and
returned $320 million to shareholders(3)
Evolving Competitively
Entropy Inc. -
Modular Carbon Capture and StorageTM
Advancing liquids development
Technical enhancements delivering
superior performance
Top Tier Asset Quality
186% PDP reserve additions replaced(1),
$6.10/boe FD&A(1) cost (2022)
Well payouts(1) averaged ~5 producing
months (2022)
Infrastructure dominance facilitating
production growth & midstream revenue
Foundations in Risk Management
20% to 50% commodity hedges
Diversified gas markets and low relative
commitments
Low abandonment liability and
responsible stewardship
1. See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these
measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation. | 3 | |
2. | Net debt target excludes Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage. | |
3. | Shares bought back from April 13, 2022 to September 30, 2023. Percentage of shares bought back is relative to the shares outstanding at September 30, 2023. |
2023 Capital Investment Thesis Maximizes AFF Per Share(1)(2)
Glacier
16 wells (14 net)
$250 - $280
million | Valhalla and Wembley |
Net Capital | 9 wells (9 net) |
Expenditures (1) |
Phased infrastructure investments pave the path to 500+ mmcf/d operated capacity
Capital Efficiency (1)
$14,425/boe/d
24% corporate decline rate (1)
Production
59,000 to 62,500 boe/d
Net Debt (1) Target
$170 million to $230 million(3)
Maximizing AFF Per Share
Growing Processing
Revenue
~$10 million/year
Very Low Cost Structure
Operating expense ~$3.65/boe
1. See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.
2. Forward-looking information. See "Corporate Update" on page 3 in Advantage's MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2022 for an explanation of significant differences in forward-looking information and historical results. | 4 |
Refer to the Advisory in this presentation and Advantage's news release dated December 1, 2022 including advisories in the press release for material assumptions and risk factors. | |
3. Net debt target excludes Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage. |
Three-Year Strategic Plan: Investing in Measured Production Growth
Millions
Net Capital Expenditures (1)(2)
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
Production Range (2)
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
Range |
- See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.
- Forward-lookinginformation. See "Corporate Update" on page 3 in Advantage's MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2022 for an explanation of significant differences in forward-looking information and historical results. Refer to
the Advisory in this presentation and Advantage's news release dated December 1, 2022 including advisories in the press release for material assumptions and risk factors. 2024 and 2025 are for illustration purposes only and are subject | 5 |
to a number of factors including 2022/23 results. |
Three-Year Strategic Plan: Maximize AFF per Share Growth
Adjusted Funds Flow per Share at Strip Pricing(1)(2)
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||
Without Share Buybacks | With Share Buybacks | |||
Millions
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
2023 AFF Sensitivity(3)
US$90/bbl WTI &
US$4.00/mmbtu HH
Free Cash Flow | |
US$75/bbl WTI & | Dedicated to |
Shareholder Returns | |
US$3.00/mmbtu HH | |
US$60/bbl WTI & | Capital Spending | |||
US$2.00/mmbtu HH | Delivering | |||
~9% Production | ||||
Growth | ||||
Adjusted Funds Flow | Capital Allocation |
- AFF has been reduced by estimated cash taxes in 2025. Advantage expects it will not be subject to cash taxes until calendar 2025 due to its $1.1 billion in high-quality tax pools. AFF per share assumes all FCF dedicated to share buybacks. Assumes production growth of approximately 10% annually.
- Strip pricing assumptions: WTI US$/bbl (2023-$77,2024-$78,2025-$73), AECO $CDN/GJ (2023-$2.73,2024-$3.11,2025-$3.66), FX $US/$CDN (2023-0.74,2024-0.74,2025-0.74), includes hedges, assumes annual net capital expenditures of $250 million to $300 million.
3. Other price assumptions include AECO/NYMEX Basis US$1.00/mmbtu, $USD/$CAD 0.74 and hedging. | 6 |
World Class Assets, Operational Excellence, Environmental Leadership
GLACIERPROGRESS
Glacier Carbon Capture
& Storage Asset
VALHALLA
WEMBLEY
Conroy
Alberta: 226 Net
Sections
BC: 53 Net | AAV Lands | |
Sections | AAV Facilities |
Disciplined Financial Management
Self-funded growth with free cash flow (1)
Prolific Gas Foundation
Free cash flow (1) generation with low declines and cost
High Quality Light Oil
Deep inventory of high quality resource
Clean Sustainable Energy
State of the art emissions engineering
Low-Cost Owned Infrastructure
Controlled, efficient, innovative
Invested in Alberta's Communities
Generating employment and giving back
1. See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 for information relating to these measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this | 7 |
presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation. |
Low-Cost Structure: Key Factor in Free Cash Flow Generation
Op Exp | Royalty Exp | G&A | Int Exp | Trans Exp(1) |
$/boe
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Peer | AAV | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer |
1. Transportation expense is not a typical cost as it is generally associated with accessing higher priced markets. | 8 |
2. Source: Scotiabank, July 6, 2023. Cash costs for the quarter ended March 31, 2023. |
Advantage Montney Assets - Multizone Oil, Liquids and Gas Throughout
Doig
Upper
Montney
Middle
Montney
300m
Lower
Montney
D4
D3
D2
D1
Glacier | Valhalla | Progress | Wembley |
2023 Targets
Advantage Operated HZ
Belloy
Offset Operator HZ
9
Glacier Core: World-Class Free Cash Flow(1) Engine
Glacier Production Forecast2 | Net Capital Expenditures1 & FCF1 | Free Cash | ||||||||||
Actuals | Net Operating Income1,2 | Flow1 | ||||||||||
04-01: 1 UM, 4 D1 | Growth | Net Capital Expenditures [MM$]1,2 | Engine | |||||||||
boe/d3 | Base | Cumulative Free Cash Flow [MM$]1,2 | ||||||||||
On stream Q4/23 | $510MM+ | |||||||||||
2-32: Q4/23 | ||||||||||||
Production | ||||||||||||
1 D4, 3 D1 | ||||||||||||
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||||
IP180 Comparison vs Peers | ||||||||||||
12.2 mmcf/d IP30 | ||||||||||||
14.4 mmcf/d IP30 | → | |||||||||||
17.6 mmcf/d IP30 | P10 | |||||||||||
Probability | ||||||||||||
16.5 mmcf/d IP30 | Newest AAV wells | |||||||||||
Peer 2 | Peer 1 | AAV | ||||||||||
04-22:1 UM, 2 D1 | P50 | |||||||||||
AAV Pipelines | ||||||||||||
Q1/24 Frac | ||||||||||||
Cumulative | Median AAV Wells | |||||||||||
2023 Locations | ||||||||||||
Upper Montney | P90 | Significantly Outperform Peers | ||||||||||
Montney D4 | ||||||||||||
Montney D1 | ||||||||||||
2022 wells | Higher Well Productivity | |||||||||||
Cum. 180 day BCF/100m |
- See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 for information relating to these measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.
- Forward-lookinginformation. See "Corporate Update" on page 3 in Advantage's MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2022 for an explanation of significant differences in forward-looking information and historical results. Refer to the Advisory in this presentation and Advantage's news release dated
December 1, 2022 including advisories in the press release for material assumptions and risk factors. 2024 and 2025 are for illustration purposes only and are subject to a number of factors including 2022/23 results. Economic calculations based on strip pricing assumptions: WTI US$/bbl (2023-$77, 2024- | 10 |
$78, 2025-$73), AECO $CDN/GJ (2023-$2.73,2024-$3.11,2025-$3.66), FX $US/$CDN (2023-0.74,2024-0.74,2025-0.74). | |
3. Production rates are Advantage working interest sales volumes. |
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Disclaimer
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. published this content on 01 November 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 03 November 2023 14:15:46 UTC.