HAMBURG (dpa-AFX) - According to the credit insurer Allianz Trade, companies worldwide will face an increase in insolvencies in 2024 for the third year in a row. "This trend also applies to Germany - albeit at a slower pace than in most other European countries," forecast the economists at the Hamburg-based Allianz subsidiary. "According to the Allianz Trade Insolvency Study, the ongoing economic weakness, structural challenges and tighter financing conditions are likely to cause even more German companies to get into financial difficulties in 2024."

According to the study, the number of insolvencies among German companies is likely to increase by 13% in 2024 compared to the previous year. "This increase has already begun, particularly in the second half of 2023," said Milo Bogaerts, Head of Allianz Trade for the German-speaking region. Here, the number of insolvencies has visibly accelerated with a 25% increase compared to the second half of the previous year, "with the hospitality industry, retail, construction and B2B services making a significant contribution". B2B (business to business) refers to transactions between companies, not with consumers.

In line with this trend, the analysts at Allianz Trade expect the number of company bankruptcies in Germany to rise to around 20,260 in 2024. It is not expected to settle at a somewhat more stable level of just under 20,000 until 2025 due to the anticipated recovery of the German economy.

Globally, the Allianz Trade economists expect the number of cases to increase by 9 percent "this year will be the third escalation in a row" in insolvency activity. They cite lower growth, trade disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties as the decisive factors for this. "The largest increases are expected in the USA (up 28%), Spain (up 28%) and the Netherlands (up 31%). "This broad-based increase would mean that the number of insolvencies in 2024 would exceed the pre-pandemic figure in two out of three countries. In 2023, this was still the case in half of the countries, says the head of the Allianz Trade Group, Aylin Somersan Coqui.

However, Allianz Trade is "not expecting a tsunami of corporate insolvencies like the one we saw after the major financial crisis, when global insolvencies skyrocketed by 17% and 19% in 2008 and 2009 respectively"./kf/DP/zb