Financials Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Equities

AJG

US3635761097

Multiline Insurance & Brokers

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 04:00:02 2024-12-10 pm EST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
283.74 ^USD	-2.78%		-8.41%	+26.17%

Dec. 10	Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Adjusts Price Target on Arthur J. Gallagher to $292 From $260	MT
Dec. 10	Evercore ISI Adjusts Arthur J. Gallagher Price Target to $324 From $298	MT

Projected Income Statement: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

income-statement-evolution-chart ARTHUR-J-GALLAGHER-CO

Fiscal Period: Dezember	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	7,056	6,852	8,076	8,420	9,926	11,464	13,026	14,112
Change	-	-2.9%	17.87%	4.26%	17.89%	15.49%	13.63%	8.34%
EBITDA ¹	1,341	1,699	2,029	2,554	3,010	3,521	4,123	4,678
Change	-	26.66%	19.44%	25.88%	17.83%	16.99%	17.1%	13.47%
EBIT ¹	-	-	1,523	2,002	2,313	3,209	3,913	4,231
Change	-	-	-	31.46%	15.55%	38.72%	21.94%	8.14%
Interest Paid ¹	-179.8	-196.4	-226.1	-256.9	-296.7	-377.3	-392.2	-464.1
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	626.1	870.9	975.1	1,327	1,185	1,949	2,516	2,705
Change	-	39.1%	11.96%	36.09%	-10.69%	64.49%	29.06%	7.53%
Net income ¹	668.8	818.8	906.8	1,114	969.5	1,520	1,888	1,982
Change	-	22.43%	10.75%	22.87%	-12.99%	56.8%	24.18%	5%
Announcement Date	1/30/20	1/28/21	1/27/22	1/26/23	1/25/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: December	2019 Q4	2020 Q1	2020 Q2	2020 Q3	2020 Q4	2021 Q1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1	2026 Q2	2026 Q3
Net sales ¹	1,684	1,829	1,552	1,808	1,664	2,133	1,897	2,106	1,941	2,404	2,008	2,012	1,995	2,673	2,407	2,454	2,393	3,218	2,736	2,766	2,709	3,585	3,073	3,090	2,995	-	-	-
Change	-	8.65%	-15.18%	16.49%	-7.96%	28.19%	-11.06%	11.01%	-7.8%	23.85%	-16.47%	0.18%	-0.83%	33.97%	-9.95%	1.94%	-2.47%	34.47%	-14.98%	1.11%	-2.09%	32.37%	-14.3%	0.56%	-3.06%	-100%	-	-
EBITDA ¹	287.4	507.8	389.8	433.1	368	626.8	465.9	500.2	436.1	856.5	579.8	589.7	528.1	958.3	675.7	706.5	669	1,146	811.4	808.8	783.3	1,343	961.7	968	917.7	1,551	1,135	1,137
Change	-	76.69%	-23.24%	11.11%	-15.03%	70.33%	-25.67%	7.36%	-12.81%	96.4%	-32.31%	1.71%	-10.45%	81.46%	-29.49%	4.56%	-5.31%	71.23%	-29.17%	-0.32%	-3.15%	71.39%	-28.37%	0.66%	-5.19%	69.01%	-26.82%	0.2%
EBIT ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	696.7	439.5	444.2	385.3	798.9	500	546.4	479.3	999.3	599.8	598.8	728.6	1,255	868.1	880.2	825.4	1,367	972.5	972
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-36.92%	1.07%	-13.26%	107.34%	-37.41%	9.28%	-12.28%	108.49%	-39.98%	-0.17%	21.68%	72.24%	-30.83%	1.4%	-6.22%	65.55%	-28.83%	-0.05%
Charge d'intérêts ¹	-48.1	-50.5	-50	-48.1	-47.8	-48.1	-56.2	-60.3	-61.5	-63.9	-64.6	-64.4	-64	-67.9	-77.8	-72.8	-78.2	-92.2	-94.3	-92.9	-95	-96.72	-98.98	-98.72	-100.8	-106.6	-108.8	-111
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	84	356	171.7	209.5	133.7	408.4	222.3	231.4	113	537.7	352.3	315	122	605.8	297.4	364.1	-82.2	772.7	365.6	403.3	376	914	538	543	466	-	-	-
Change	-	323.81%	-51.77%	22.02%	-36.18%	205.46%	-45.57%	4.09%	-51.17%	375.84%	-34.48%	-10.59%	-61.27%	396.56%	-50.91%	22.43%	-	-	-52.69%	10.31%	-6.77%	143.09%	-41.14%	0.93%	-14.18%	-100%	-	-
Net income ¹	98.5	346.3	153.7	176.6	142.2	382.1	190.2	225.1	109.4	438.7	284.2	255.8	135.5	486.5	234.5	280.7	-32.2	608.4	285.4	312.6	297	690	404	402	350	-	-	-
Change	-	251.57%	-55.62%	14.9%	-19.48%	168.71%	-50.22%	18.35%	-51.4%	301.01%	-35.22%	-9.99%	-47.03%	259.04%	-51.8%	19.7%	-	-	-53.09%	9.53%	-4.99%	132.32%	-41.45%	-0.5%	-12.94%	-100%	-	-
Announcement Date	1/30/20	4/30/20	7/30/20	10/29/20	1/28/21	4/29/21	7/29/21	10/28/21	1/27/22	4/28/22	7/28/22	10/27/22	1/26/23	4/27/23	7/27/23	10/26/23	1/25/24	4/25/24	7/25/24	10/24/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Balance Sheet: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

balance-sheet-analysis-chart ARTHUR-J-GALLAGHER-CO

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	4,002	3,880	5,653	5,772	6,994	6,754	7,085	9,136
Change	-	-3.05%	45.7%	2.11%	21.17%	-3.42%	4.9%	28.95%
Announcement Date	1/30/20	1/28/21	1/27/22	1/26/23	1/25/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CAPEX ¹	138.8	128.6	182.7	193.6	175.1	207.2	221.1
Change	-	-	42.07%	5.97%	-9.58%	18.39%	6.67%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ¹	980.4	1,576	1,943	1,838	2,551	3,110	3,513
Change	-	-	23.31%	-5.38%	38.81%	21.89%	12.97%
Announcement Date	1/30/20	1/27/22	1/26/23	1/25/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)	19.01%	24.79%	25.12%	30.33%	30.32%	30.71%	31.65%	33.15%
EBIT Margin (%)	-	-	18.85%	23.77%	23.3%	27.99%	30.04%	29.98%
EBT Margin (%)	8.87%	12.71%	12.07%	15.76%	11.94%	17%	19.31%	19.17%
Net margin (%)	9.48%	11.95%	11.23%	13.23%	9.77%	13.26%	14.49%	14.05%
FCF margin (%)	13.89%	-	19.51%	23.07%	18.52%	22.26%	23.87%	24.9%
FCF / Net Income (%)	146.59%	-	173.74%	174.36%	189.59%	167.84%	164.74%	177.24%
Profitability
ROA	-	-	-	-	-	2.4%	2.8%	3.1%
ROE	14.43%	14.3%	15.46%	18.82%	19.3%	16.53%	16.63%	16.44%
Financial Health
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.98x	2.28x	2.79x	2.26x	2.32x	1.92x	1.72x	1.95x
Debt / Free cash flow	4.08x	-	3.59x	2.97x	3.8x	2.65x	2.28x	2.6x
Capital Intensity
CAPEX / Current Assets (%)	1.97%	-	1.59%	2.17%	1.95%	1.53%	1.59%	1.57%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%)	10.35%	-	6.34%	7.15%	6.43%	4.97%	5.03%	4.73%
CAPEX / FCF (%)	14.16%	-	8.16%	9.4%	10.53%	6.86%	6.66%	6.29%
Items per share
Cash flow per share ¹	-	8.987	8.22	9.899	9.262	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-8.53%	20.42%	-6.44%	-	-	-
Dividend per Share ¹	1.72	1.8	1.92	2.04	2.2	2.4	2.547	2.665
Change	-	4.65%	6.67%	6.25%	7.84%	9.09%	6.11%	4.65%
Book Value Per Share ¹	27.72	32.19	40.82	43.15	49.73	57.66	69.69	83.13
Change	-	16.11%	26.82%	5.71%	15.25%	15.96%	20.86%	19.28%
EPS ¹	3.52	4.2	4.37	5.19	4.42	6.987	8.506	9.35
Change	-	19.32%	4.05%	18.76%	-14.84%	58.09%	21.73%	9.92%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	186,523	192,322	207,278	210,840	215,911	219,446	219,446	219,446
Announcement Date	1/30/20	1/28/21	1/27/22	1/26/23	1/25/24	-	-	-