Q3 2020 Update
October 29, 2020
CNX Leads Peers on Key Financial and Inventory Metrics
Enverus Third-Party Reported Inventory Life Under $2.50/MMBtu | Q3/Q2 2020 Operating Expenses ($/Mcfe)(1) | |||||||||||||
(Years) | ||||||||||||||
22 | $2.11 | |||||||||||||
19 | ||||||||||||||
$1.28 | $1.44 | |||||||||||||
11 | ||||||||||||||
10 | 10 | $1.01 | ||||||||||||
$0.73 | $0.77 | |||||||||||||
3 | ||||||||||||||
RRC | COG | SWN | EQT | AR | COG | SWN | EQT | RRC | AR | |||||
2022E FCF Yield (Strip)(1)(2) | YE 2022E Net Debt / EBITDA (Strip)(1)(3)(4) | |||||||||||||
22% | 4.2x | |||||||||||||
11% | 8% | 2.4x | 2.6x | |||||||||||
12% | ||||||||||||||
2.3x | ||||||||||||||
5% | ||||||||||||||
1.5x | ||||||||||||||
(4) | ||||||||||||||
(5%) | NA | |||||||||||||
COG | RRC | EQT | SWN | AR | COG | EQT | RRC | SWN | AR |
Source: Company materials, Enverus, public filings and FactSet as of 10/21/20.
Note: CNX and EQT statistics as of 3Q20. Other peers are as of latest reported 2Q20.
- Non-GAAPmeasures. For definitions and reconciliations, see "3Q 2020 Earnings Results & Supplemental Information of CNX Corporation" on Investor Page on the company's website and page 11 herein.
(2) | CNX free cash flow (FCF) per company guidance. Peer FCF per 2Q20 Enverus report defined as EBITDA less capex less interest expense using pricing as of 10/16/20 through 1H 2022 then price held flat thereafter. | 2 |
(3) Year-End ("YE") 2022E net debt defined as current net debt less cumulative FCF from 4Q 2020 - YE 2022E. EBITDA as per 2Q20 Enverus company "Strip then Flat" NAV. | ||
(4) | "NA" denotes a negative value. |
Enverus Third-Party Reported Inventory Life By Breakeven
CNX has the deepest and longest-lived inventory under a $2.50 gas price, more than double the peer average
Inventory Life at 2023 Activity Level (Years)
Inventory Life by Breakeven
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
CNX | RRC | TOU | CRK | COG | SWN | EQT | SBOW | GPOR | AR | ||||||||
Breakeven $/MMBtu HH & $45 WTI | |||||||||||||||||
<$2.00 | $2.00-$2.25 | $2.25-$2.50 | $2.50-$2.75 | $2.75-$3.00 | >$3.00 | ||||||||||||
Source: Enverus "2Q20 Gas NAV Compass" report on 10/18/2020.
3
Q3 2020 Highlights
QUARTER SUMMARY:
"CNX continued to successfully execute its plan in the third quarter highlighted by significant positive free cash flow, reduced absolute debt, and lower fully burdened cash costs," commented Nicholas J. DeIuliis, president and CEO. "We continue to expect to generate total free cash flow(1) of approximately $3.4 billion across our 2020-2026long-term plan, and our focus remains on making capital allocation decisions to maximize the long-term intrinsic value per share of the company."
- Three consecutive quarters of generating free cash flow (FCF)(1) culminating in $271 million year-to-date
- Retired remaining Senior Notes due in 2022, extending nearest term maturities to 2026
- Capital expenditures of $108 million improved for the quarter primarily due to timing of spend; 2020E capital expenditures updated to $495-$515 million
- 2020E free cash flow(1) reaffirmed at approximately $350 million
3RD QUARTER SNAPSHOT(1)
$121MM18%
Free Cash Flow | 2021E Free Cash Flow Yield |
15%61%
Operating Margin | 2021E Cash Operating Margin |
2.6x2.0x
TTM Leverage Ratio | 2021E Leverage Ratio |
$1.17 per Mcfe | $1.02 per Mcfe |
Fully Burdened Cash Costs | 2021E Fully Burdened Cash |
Costs |
Note: Financial metrics based on company filings and estimates. Share price as of 10/21/2020.
- Non-GAAPmeasures. For definitions and reconciliations, see "3Q 2020 Earnings Results & Supplemental Information of CNX
Corporation" on Investor Page on the company's website and page 11 herein. | 4 |
Significant Free Cash Flow Generation
Currently producing significant FCF: $271 million YTD, and expect FCF to grow in future years
$ in millions
$600 | Free Cash Flow (FCF)(1) |
~$515
$500
~$425
$400 | |||
~ $79 | ~$350 | ||
$300 | $121 | $271 | $79 |
$200
$21
$129
$100
$0
$271
1Q20 | 2Q20 | 3Q20 | YTD 2020 | Implied Q4 | 2020E | 2021E | 2022-2026E | ||
FCF (Actual) | FCF (Guidance Estimates) | Annual Average | |||||||
Note: Financial metrics based on company filings and estimates. Forward market prices are as of 10/8/2020.
- Non-GAAPmeasures. For definitions and reconciliations, see "3Q 2020 Earnings Results & Supplemental Information of CNX Corporation" on Investor Page on the company's website and page 11 herein.
5
Free Cash Flow Improvements
Steadily increased 2020E and 2021E annual FCF guidance over past 5 quarters
Expect to continue to reduce risks and improve FCF estimates going forward
$ in millions
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
2020E & 2021E Annual Free Cash Flow(1) Guidance Evolution
$425 | $425 | $425 | |||||||||
$400 | |||||||||||
$250 | |||||||||||
$79 | |||||||||||
$171 | $150 | $200 | |||||||||
$146 | $250 | $150 | $150 | $271 | |||||||
$135 | $129 | ||||||||||
2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | Plan Update | 3Q20 | |||||
(9/8/20) | |||||||||||
2020A FCF (YTD) | 2020E FCF (Guidance Estimates) | 2021E FCF (Guidance Estimates) | |||||||||
Note: Financial metrics based on company filings and estimates. Forward market prices are as of 10/8/2020.
- Non-GAAPmeasures. For definitions and reconciliations, see "3Q 2020 Earnings Results & Supplemental Information of CNX Corporation" on Investor Page on the company's website and page 11 herein.
6
Low Costs Driving Strong Operating Margins
2020E-2026E Fully Burdened Costs(1)
$1.20 | |
$0.29 | |
$/Mcfe | $0.17 |
$0.74 |
1Q20
Operating Margins(1) 36%
$1.29 | |||
$1.17 | |||
$0.45 | $1.04 | $1.02 | |
$0.27 | 0.91 | ||
$0.23 | $0.20 | ||
$0.07 | |||
$0.17 | |||
$0.18 | $0.11 | $0.11 | |
$0.14 | |||
$0.66 | $0.73 | $0.67 | $0.71 | $0.73 |
2Q20 | 3Q20 | 4Q20E | 2021E | 2022-2026E Average | ||||
26% | 15% | 28% | 30% | 31% | ||||
Production Cash Costs | Cash SGA | Other Corp Costs & Income | ||||||
Note: Financial metrics based on company filings and estimates. Operating margin calculated as EBIT divided by total revenue.
- Non-GAAPmeasures. For definitions and reconciliations, see "3Q 2020 Earnings Results & Supplemental Information of CNX Corporation" on Investor Page on the company's website and page 11 herein.
7
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Strength
In 2020, paid off all of the $895 million of Senior Notes due in 2022
Significant runway before nearest notes maturity in 2026
Significant liquidity under credit facility - Borrowing base redetermination complete and reaffirmed at $2.5 billion
Maturities as of September 30, 2020 (Adjusted)(1)
($ in millions)
UndrawnRevolver | Capacity | $1,525 | |||||||||||
$47 | |||||||||||||
$975 | |||||||||||||
$745 | $700 | ||||||||||||
$119 | |||||||||||||
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||||||
CNX/CNXM Sr. Notes | CNX/ CNXM Revolvers | Cardinal States Facilities | Undrawn Revolver Company | ||||||||||
Source: Company filings. | |
(1) On 10/8/2020, CNX repurchased the remaining $363.3 million of its outstanding 5.875% senior notes due in April 2022 at an average price equal to 100.0% of the principal amount. Excludes letters | 8 |
of credit. |
Guidance and Hedging Update
In Q3 2020, CNX added the following hedges:
98.8 Bcf NYMEX hedges (2020-2025)
20.2 Bcf Index hedges (2022-2024)
230.6 Bcf Basis hedges (2020-2025)
PREVIOUS | UPDATED | PREVIOUS | UPDATED | |||||||||
($ in millions) | 2020E | 2020E | 2021E | 2021E | ||||||||
Capital Expenditures | Low | High | Low | High | ||||||||
Drilling & Completions (D&C) | $330 | - | $380 | $365 | - | $375 | - | - | ||||
Non-D&C | $140 | - | $170 | $130 | - | $140 | - | - | ||||
Total Capital | $470 | - | $550 | $495 | - | $515 | ~$440 | ~$440 | ||||
Production Volumes (Bcfe) | 490 | - | 530 | 500 | - | 510 | ~550 | ~550 | ||||
% of Natural Gas Hedged | 94% | 89% | ||||||||||
Prices on Open Volumes(1) | ||||||||||||
Natural Gas NYMEX ($/MMBtu) | $1.94 | $2.07 | - | - | ||||||||
Natural Gas Basis Differential ($/MMBtu) | ($0.20) | - ($0.30) | ($0.35) | - ($0.45) | - | - | ||||||
NGL Realized Price ($/Bbl) | $12.50 | - $14.50 | $12.50 | - $14.50 | - | - | ||||||
($ in millions) | ||||||||||||
Adjusted EBITDAX(2) | $830 | - | $900 | ~$900 | ~$920 | ~$960 | ||||||
($ in millions) | ||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (FCF)(2) | ~$350 | ~$350 | ~$425 | ~$425 |
- Forward market prices are as of 10/8/2020.
- Non-GAAPmeasures. For definitions and reconciliations, see "3Q 2020 Earnings Results & Supplemental Information of CNX Corporation" on Investor Page on the company's website and page 11 herein.
9
Key 2021 Financial Metrics Lead across Major Indices
18% | 30% | 2.0x |
FCF Yield(1) | Operating Margin(1) | Leverage Ratio(1) |
S&P 1500 Index | 93rd | 88th | 41st | percentile |
96th | 97th | percentile | |
S&P 1500 Industrials | 27th |
95th | 90th | percentile | |
S&P 400 Mid Cap | 43rd |
87th | 94th | percentile | |
S&P 600 Small Cap | 41st |
Note: Financial metrics based on FactSet consensus estimates for 2021. CNX financial metrics based on company estimates. Operating margin calculated as EBIT divided by total Revenue. CNX leverage ratio assumes | |
2021 free cash flow allocated to debt reduction. Indices exclude Financial sector companies. | 10 |
(1) Non-GAAP measures. For definitions and reconciliations, see "3Q 2020 Earnings Results & Supplemental Information of CNX Corporation" on Investor Page on the company's website and page 11 herein. | |
Investor Contacts & Notices
Investor Relations Contact
Tyler Lewis
VP, Investor Relations (724) 485-3157
Email:TylerLewis@cnx.com
Investor Notices
For purposes of this presentation: "CNX", "CNX Resources", "Company", "we", "us", and "our" refer to CNX Resources Corporation.
Risk Factors
This presentation, including the oral statements made in connection herewith, contains forward-looking statements estimates and projections within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements that are not historical are forward-looking and may include our operational and strategic plans; estimates of gas reserves and resources; projected timing and rates of return of future investments; and projections and estimates of future production revenues, income and capital spending. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those statements estimates and projections. Investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a prediction of future actual results. The forward-looking statements in this presentation speak only as of the date of this presentation; we disclaim any obligation to update the statements, and we caution you not to rely on them unduly.
Specific factors that could cause future actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements are described in detail under the captions "Forward- Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as supplemented by our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2020 and June 30, 2020, and any subsequent reports filed with the SEC. Those risk factors discuss, among other matters, pricing volatility or pricing decline for natural gas and NGLs; the failure to realize the anticipated costs savings, synergies and other benefits of CNX's purchase of the outstanding interests in
CNXM not already owned by CNX; local, regional and national economic conditions and the impact they may have on our customers; the impact of outbreaks of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 on business activity, our operations and national and global economic conditions, generally; conditions in the oil and gas industry, including a sustained decrease in the level of supply or demand for oil or natural gas or a sustained decrease in the price of oil or natural gas; the financial condition of our customers; any non-performance by customers of their contractual obligations; changes in customer, employee or supplier relationships resulting from the proposed transaction; and changes in safety, health, environmental and other regulations.
Data
This presentation has been prepared by CNX and includes market data and other statistical information from sources believed by CNX to be reliable, including independent industry publications, government publications and other published independent sources. Some data are also based on CNX's good faith estimates, which are derived from its review of internal sources as well as the independent sources described above. Although CNX believes these sources are reliable, it has not independently verified the information and cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Non-GAAP Measures (Definitions, Purpose, and Reconciliations)
CNX's management uses certain non-GAAP financial measures for planning, forecasting and evaluating business and financial performance, and believes that they are useful for investors in analyzing the company. For definitions and the reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures, refer to "3Q 2020 Earnings Results & Supplemental Information of CNX Corporation" on Investor Page on the company's website. Please note that CNX is unable to provide a reconciliation of projected financial results contained in this presentation, including the measures referenced above, to their respective comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP. This is due to our inability to calculate the comparable GAAP projected metrics, including operating income, net cash provided by operating activities and total production costs, given the unknown effect, timing, and potential significance of certain income statement items.
Although these are not measures of performance calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), management believes that these financial measures are useful to an investor in evaluating CNX because (i) analysts utilize these metrics when evaluating company performance and have requested this information as of a recent practicable date, (ii) these metrics are widely used to evaluate a company's operating performance, and (iii) we want to provide updated information to investors. Investors should not view these metrics as a substitute for measures of performance that are calculated in accordance with GAAP. In addition,
because all companies do not calculate these measures identically, these measures11 may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies.
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CNX Resources Corporation published this content on 29 October 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 29 October 2020 14:14:10 UTC