The company hosted a CMD in mid-September where management presented its long-term views. There were also several interesting presentations from KOLs in the industry, discussing the benefits for patients and doctors of the Episealer implant system. We believe
Clinical documentation key for future sales success in our view. In recent years, the documentation supporting the outcomes for the Episealer implant system has strengthened significantly. At its capital markets day in mid-September, the company focused on all aspects of its operations but, in our view, the rapidly increasing clinical documentation and presentations by KOLs in
Long-term follow-up from first trial indicates very low revision rate - a positive in our view. In the Stålman paper (see our
KOLs clearly positive for the implant system. Several large volume users in
Ambitious targets communicated. The company believes a c30% market share in its niche is reasonable over time, and highlighted that the target is c15% market share in the US some three years post-launch (estimated for c2024). Given the alternatives available today, we believe this is realistic, but the question of a potential partner in the US market remains. We believe the choice of actual partner should affect the likelihood of reaching that target in the specified time-frame.
Forecasts updated and fair value adjusted. We believe the market-share targets are ambitious but doable, especially with the strong clinical outcome data seen lately. Based on the new clinical data seen this year, we have increased our longer-term market-share assumptions and as a result increased our fair value to
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