Financials Gakken Holdings Co., Ltd.

Equities

9470

JP3234200008

Miscellaneous Educational Service Providers

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-04-30 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
918 ^JPY	+1.21%		-0.86%	-6.99%

Feb. 22	Tranche Update on Gakken Holdings Co., Ltd.'s Equity Buyback Plan announced on November 10, 2023.	CI
Feb. 22	Gakken Swings to Fiscal Q1 Loss Amid Delayed Classroom Business Recovery, Lower Children's Book Sales	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	49,330	60,144	53,039	42,349	38,407	39,096	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	58,634	71,982	71,671	61,194	59,824	39,096	39,096	39,096
P/E ratio	25.6 x	25.9 x	18.9 x	12.3 x	12 x	14.3 x	11.3 x	10 x
Yield	1.4%	1.23%	1.8%	2.49%	2.87%	3.03%	3.31%	3.58%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.35 x	0.42 x	0.35 x	0.27 x	0.23 x	0.22 x	0.2 x	0.19 x
EV / Revenue	0.35 x	0.42 x	0.35 x	0.27 x	0.23 x	0.22 x	0.2 x	0.19 x
EV / EBITDA	7.02 x	7.77 x	5.84 x	4.48 x	4.12 x	4.05 x	3.76 x	3.47 x
EV / FCF	28.7 x	23.6 x	-3.88 x	-67.1 x	12.3 x	-23.7 x	44.4 x	31.9 x
FCF Yield	3.48%	4.23%	-25.8%	-1.49%	8.15%	-4.23%	2.25%	3.14%
Price to Book	1.29 x	1.68 x	1.13 x	0.88 x	0.73 x	0.73 x	0.7 x	0.67 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	36,883	37,035	43,439	43,885	44,095	42,588	-	-
Reference price ²	1,338	1,624	1,221	965.0	871.0	907.0	907.0	907.0
Announcement Date	11/13/19	11/13/20	11/12/21	11/11/22	11/10/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	140,559	143,564	150,288	156,032	164,116	179,445	192,969	206,953
EBITDA ¹	7,032	7,738	9,085	9,455	9,321	9,648	10,390	11,257
EBIT ¹	4,523	5,075	6,239	6,427	6,170	6,580	7,122	7,999
Operating Margin	3.22%	3.54%	4.15%	4.12%	3.76%	3.67%	3.69%	3.87%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	4,792	5,167	6,010	6,445	6,705	6,080	7,322	8,199
Net income ¹	1,940	2,321	2,617	3,440	3,194	2,740	3,382	3,809
Net margin	1.38%	1.62%	1.74%	2.2%	1.95%	1.53%	1.75%	1.84%
EPS ²	52.18	62.70	64.55	78.67	72.51	63.60	80.50	90.70
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,717	2,545	-13,671	-631	3,131	-1,652	880	1,227
FCF margin	1.22%	1.77%	-9.1%	-0.4%	1.91%	-0.92%	0.46%	0.59%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	24.42%	32.89%	-	-	33.59%	-	8.47%	10.9%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	88.51%	109.65%	-	-	98.03%	-	26.02%	32.21%
Dividend per Share ²	18.75	20.00	22.00	24.00	25.00	27.50	30.00	32.50
Announcement Date	11/13/19	11/13/20	11/12/21	11/11/22	11/10/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: September	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	67,724	75,838	67,726	78,077	72,211	36,888	42,744	79,632	37,379	39,021	76,400	38,208	42,966	81,174	38,187	44,755	42,749	47,145	42,504	47,021
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	1,032	4,293	782	4,970	1,269	1,324	3,001	4,325	460	1,642	2,102	605	2,619	3,224	83	2,863	836	2,882	90	2,942
Operating Margin	1.52%	5.66%	1.15%	6.37%	1.76%	3.59%	7.02%	5.43%	1.23%	4.21%	2.75%	1.58%	6.1%	3.97%	0.22%	6.4%	1.96%	6.11%	0.21%	6.26%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,273	4,067	1,100	4,463	1,547	1,257	3,166	4,423	606	1,416	2,022	519	2,072	2,591	246	3,868	-77	2,947	165	3,217
Net income ¹	282	2,377	-56	2,344	273	702	1,844	2,546	301	593	894	232	1,006	1,238	-85	2,041	-38	1,519	-109	1,567
Net margin	0.42%	3.13%	-0.08%	3%	0.38%	1.9%	4.31%	3.2%	0.81%	1.52%	1.17%	0.61%	2.34%	1.53%	-0.22%	4.56%	-0.09%	3.22%	-0.26%	3.33%
EPS	-	64.28	-	61.65	-	16.14	-	58.39	6.790	-	-	5.280	-	28.15	-1.950	-	-0.8800	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	10.00	-	11.00	-	-	-	12.00	-	-	-	-	-	12.50	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	11/13/19	5/15/20	11/13/20	5/14/21	11/12/21	2/10/22	5/13/22	5/13/22	8/10/22	11/11/22	11/11/22	2/10/23	5/12/23	5/12/23	8/10/23	11/10/23	2/9/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt	9,304	11,838	18,632	18,845	21,417	-	-	-
Net Cash position	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.323 x	1.53 x	2.051 x	1.993 x	2.298 x	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,717	2,545	-13,671	-631	3,131	-1,652	880	1,227
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	5%	6.2%	6.3%	7.2%	6.3%	5.2%	6.3%	6.8%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	4.77%	5.19%	5.55%	5.76%	4.98%	-	-	-
Assets ¹	40,657	44,697	47,128	59,720	64,109	-	-	-
Book Value Per Share ²	1,041	968.0	1,079	1,102	1,196	1,246	1,297	1,355
Cash Flow per Share	96.70	111.0	114.0	128.0	125.0	-	-	-
Capex ¹	3,636	3,426	4,788	3,031	2,328	3,500	3,500	3,500
Capex / Sales	2.59%	2.39%	3.19%	1.94%	1.42%	1.95%	1.81%	1.69%
Announcement Date	11/13/19	11/13/20	11/12/21	11/11/22	11/10/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Gakken Holdings Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

907 JPY

Average target price

1,210 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+33.41%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Miscellaneous Educational Service Providers

	1st Jan change	Capi.
GAKKEN HOLDINGS CO., LTD.	-6.99%	247M
NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC.	+9.86%	13.62B
TAL EDUCATION GROUP	-2.12%	8.08B
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC.	-0.60%	3.94B
STRIDE, INC.	+13.95%	2.89B
STRATEGIC EDUCATION, INC.	+26.65%	2.87B
LAUREATE EDUCATION, INC.	+7.51%	2.36B
ADTALEM GLOBAL EDUCATION INC.	-15.91%	1.96B
GAOTU TECHEDU INC.	+83.06%	1.74B
BENESSE HOLDINGS, INC.	-0.65%	1.59B

Miscellaneous Educational Service Providers