GFL Environmental : Q4 2023 Earnings Presentation

Disclaimer

Unless otherwise indicated, all references in this presentation to "GFL", "we", "our", "us", the "Company" or similar terms refer to GFL Environmental Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries.

Forward-Looking Information

This presentation includes certain "forward-looking statements" and "forward-looking information" (collectively, "forward-looking information") within the meaning of applicable U.S. and Canadian securities laws, respectively. Forward-looking information includes all statements that do not relate solely to historical or current facts and may relate to our future outlook, financial guidance and anticipated events or results and may include statements regarding our financial performance, financial condition or results, business strategy, growth strategies, budgets, operations and services. Particularly, statements regarding our expectations of future results, performance, achievements, prospects or

opportunities or the markets in which we operate are forward-looking information. In some cases, forward-looking information can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "plans", "targets", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "an opportunity exists", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "outlook", "forecasts", "projection", "prospects", "strategy", "intends", "anticipates", "does not anticipate", "believes", or "potential" or variations of such words and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might", "will", "will be taken", "occur" or "be achieved", although not all forward-looking information includes those words or phrases. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections, guidance, potential or other characterizations of future events or circumstances contain forward-looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts nor assurances of future performance but instead represent management's expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances.

Forward-looking information is based on our opinions, estimates and assumptions that we considered appropriate and reasonable as of the date such information is stated. Forward-looking information is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information, including but not limited to certain assumptions set out herein in the sections titled "Fiscal 2024 Guidance - Revenue Bridge", "Fiscal 2024 Full Year Guidance", "Net Leverage - Continued Deleveraging in Fiscal 2024" and "Fiscal 2024 Priorities"; our ability to obtain and maintain existing financing on acceptable terms; our ability to source and execute on acquisitions on terms acceptable to us; our ability to find purchasers for non-core assets and to complete such divestitures on terms acceptable to us; currency exchange and interest rates; commodity price fluctuations; our ability to implement price increases and surcharges; changes in waste volumes; labour, supply chain and transportation constraints; inflationary cost pressures; fuel supply and fuel price fluctuations; our ability to maintain a favourable working capital position; the impact of competition; the changes and trends in our industry or the global economy; and changes in laws, rules, regulations and global standards. Other important factors that could materially affect our forward-looking information can be found in the "Risk Factors" section of GFL's annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2023 and GFL's other periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the securities commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. Shareholders, potential investors and other readers are urged to consider these risks carefully in evaluating our forward-looking information and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such information. There can be no assurance that the underlying opinions,

estimates and assumptions will prove to be correct. Although we have attempted to identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking information, there may be other factors not currently known to us or that we currently believe are not material that could also cause actual results or future events to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking information. There can be no assurance that such information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such information. The forward-looking information contained in this presentation represents our expectations as of the date of this presentation (or as the date it is otherwise stated to be made), and is subject to change after such date. However, we disclaim any intention or obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward-looking information whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable U.S. or Canadian securities laws. The purpose of disclosing our financial outlook set out in this presentation is to provide investors with more information concerning the financial impact of our business initiatives and growth strategies.

Non-IFRS Measures

This presentation makes reference to certain measures that are not recognized under International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS") and do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Rather, these measures are provided as additional information to complement those IFRS measures by providing further understanding of our results of operations from management's perspective. Accordingly, these measures should not be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for analysis of our financial information reported under IFRS. It should be noted that companies calculate non-IFRS measures differently; as a result, the non-IFRS measures presented herein may not be comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies. We use non-IFRS measures, including Acquisition EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, EBITDA, Adjusted Cash Flows from Operating Activities, Adjusted Free Cash Flow, Adjusted Net Income (Loss) from continuing operations, Net Leverage, Run-Rate EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin. These non-IFRS measures are used to provide investors with supplemental measures of our operating performance and liquidity, where applicable, and thus highlight trends in our core business that may not otherwise be apparent when relying solely on

IFRS measures. We also believe that securities analysts, investors and other interested parties frequently use non-IFRS measures in the evaluation of issuers. Our management also uses non-IFRS measures in order to facilitate operating performance comparisons from period to period, to prepare annual operating budgets and forecasts and to determine components of management compensation. In addition, the Company's projected Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, Adjusted Free Cash Flow, Net Leverage and Run-Rate EBITDA set out herein in the sections titled "Fiscal 2024 Full Year Guidance", "Net Leverage - Continued Deleveraging in Fiscal 2024" and "Fiscal 2024 Priorities" are anticipated to exclude the effects of other events or circumstances in 2024 that are not representative or indicative of the Company's results of operations. Such excluded items are not currently identifiable, but may be significant, and include, without limitation, changes in the foreign exchange rate, the cost of refinancings and acquisition, integration, rebranding and other costs. Due to the uncertainty of the likelihood, amount and timing of any such items, the Company does not have information available to provide a quantitative reconciliation of such projections to the comparable IFRS measure. See the appendix for definitions and reconciliations of the non-IFRS measures used herein.

Certain Other Matters

Any graphs, tables or other information demonstrating our historical performance contained in this presentation are intended only to illustrate past performance and are not necessarily indicative of future performance.

All amounts are presented in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated.

Fiscal 2023 Highlights

Notable Highlights

• ▪ Grew revenue by 15.7% excluding divestitures (11.2% including divestitures) and increased Adjusted

  EBITDA(1) by 21.1% excluding divestitures (16.4% including divestitures)

• ▪ Realized Adjusted EBITDA margin(1) expansion of 120 basis points year-over-year in Fiscal 2023, demonstrating effectiveness of pricing and efficiency initiatives

• ▪ Achieved Solid Waste core pricing increase of 9.8% in Fiscal 2023, highest in Company history

• ▪ Contribution from 2022 and 2023 acquisitions exceeded plan

• ▪ Densified our Solid Waste & Environmental Services platforms through tuck-in acquisitions in core markets

  • • Completed 39 strategic, accretive acquisitions generating ~$355M(2) of annualized revenue

  • • Deployed ~$890M in Fiscal 2023

• ▪ Successfully executed process to rationalize non-core assets

• ▪ Comprised of three distinct non-core U.S. Solid Waste regions acquired as part of several larger acquisitions in the U.S.

  • • Received over ~$1.6B of gross proceeds from divestitures, reflecting mid-teens EV / EBITDA multiple

  • • Completed the divestitures one quarter ahead of plan

  • • Accelerated balance sheet deleveraging in Q2 2023 with net proceeds received

• ▪ Published our 2022 Sustainability Report

• ▪ Arbor Hills, largest RNG project, commissioned in September 2023, contributing EBITDA(1) starting in Q1-24

• ▪ EPR regulations driving growth in state-of-the-art material recovery facility ("MRF") pipeline

• ▪ Continued progress on increasing mix of CNG fleet (~19% of Solid Waste collection fleet)

(1)	For a reconciliation of non-IFRS measures to its nearest IFRS equivalent, please refer to the appendix in this presentation. Please refer to the Definitions in the appendix of this presentation.
3	(2)	Includes the expected contribution of acquisitions completed in 2023 (other than contribution from 2023 acquisitions previously reflected in the Company's 2023 full year guidance provided on February 21, 2023).
(3)	Due to the uncertainty of the likelihood, amount and timing of effects of events or circumstances to be excluded from these measures, GFL does not have information available to provide a quantitative reconciliation of such
projections to the comparable IFRS measure.

Q4 2023 Solid Waste Adjusted EBITDA Margin(1) Bridge

QQ442200222A

Solid Waste Adjusted EBITDA margin(1)

Commodities

Net Fuel

Fires

M&A

Price in Excess of

Costs

(1) For a reconciliation of non-IFRS measures to its nearest IFRS equivalent, please refer to the appendix in this presentation. Please refer to the Definitions in the appendix of this presentation.

QQ4422002233A

Solid Waste Adjusted EBITDA margin(1)

Environmental Services - Well-Positioned for Incremental Growth

Strong Organic Growth Profile Driven by Focus on Quality of Revenue (e.g., pricing) & Asset Utilization (e.g., expanded service capabilities from recent M&A)

27.9%

FFisiscall22002211

FFisiscall 2200222

FiFsisccal 2002233

FFisiscall22002211

FFisiscall 2200222

26.2%

FiFsisccal 2002233

Potential to Achieve Mid-to-High Single-Digit Organic Growth Annually;

Targeting 30%+ Adjusted EBITDA Margin(2) Over the Medium-Term

• (1) For a reconciliation of non-IFRS measures to its nearest IFRS equivalent, please refer to the appendix in this presentation. Please refer to the Definitions in the appendix of this presentation.

• (2) Due to the uncertainty of the likelihood, amount and timing of effects of events or circumstances to be excluded from these measures, GFL does not have information available to provide a quantitative reconciliation of such projections to the comparable IFRS measure.

Net Leverage(1) - Deleveraging Driven by Organic Growth & Divestitures

Organic Deleveraging

5.0x

(0.7x)

Q442-2022

2023 Organic Delveraging

(1) Please refer to the Definitions in the appendix of this presentation.

Divestitures

Divestitures

New M&A

Q442-02233

Large Weighting of Fixed Rate Obligations Provides Predictability

Refinancing Flexibility with

Revolver Capacity and

Potential New TLA

~86% of Q4 2023 Debt Stack has a Fixed Rate; 100 bps Change in Variable Rates Results in ~$12M of Impact to Interest Obligations

Note: CAD$ millions, unless otherwise noted.

• (1) Excludes other debt. Refer to Note 10 in our Annual Financial Statements.

• (2) Excludes revolving credit facilities which matures in Fiscal 2026. As at December 31, 2023, ~$185 million was drawn on the revolving credit facilities.

• (3) Effective borrowing rate based on annualized interest obligations.

Fiscal 2024 Guidance - Revenue Bridge

$7,516

Assumes negative volume of 1.0% - 1.25% at the segment level driven by the rollover impact of intentional shedding of low margin business

Assumes price growth of 6.0% - 6.5% at the segment level

Reflects 5.0% - 5.5% organic growth at the segment level

$7,319

202230A2c3tual

Actual

Less: Divestitures

2023 Pro

2023

ProFoFrmorama

SW PriceSW SurchargesSW VolumeCommodity

Price

Note: CAD$ millions, unless otherwise noted. Fiscal 2024 Guidance based on USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.35 versus the average 2023 exchange rate of 1.35.

$8,000

Environmental M&A Roll Over 2023 Outlook

2024

Services

Guidance

• ▪ See page 9 for Revenue Bridge

Adjusted EBITDA(1)(2)

• ▪ Adjusted EBITDA margin(1)(2) of ~27.7%

Adjusted EBITDA Margin(1)(2)

• ▪ 100 bps increase year-over-year

Adjusted Free Cash Flow(1)(2)

▪

Fiscal 2024 Full Year Guidance

(C$ millions, unless otherwise noted)

Revenue

Fiscal 2023	Fiscal 2024	YoY
Actuals	Guidance	Growth
$7,516	~$8,000	~6.4%
$2,004	~$2,215	~10.5%
26.7%	~27.7%	100 bps
Excludes ~$250M - $300M of planned
incremental growth investments related to RNG	$701	~$800	~14.1%
projects and EPR opportunities

Note: Fiscal 2024 Guidance based on USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.35 versus the average 2023 exchange rate of 1.35.

10

• (1) For a reconciliation of non-IFRS measures to its nearest IFRS equivalent, please refer to the appendix in this presentation. Please refer to the Definitions in the appendix of this presentation.

• (2) Due to the uncertainty of the likelihood, amount and timing of effects of events or circumstances to be excluded from these measures, GFL does not have information available to provide a quantitative reconciliation of such projections to the comparable IFRS measure.