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Encouraging homegrown figures: the climate goals for 2030 seem likely to be met and the Netherlands' dependence on natural gas will have shrunk again by 2023. This is reported by ABN Amro and Statistics Netherlands, respectively.

The electricity sector is on its way to becoming CO2 neutral. | Credit: Getty Images

To start with the climate goals, the Netherlands' 2030 greenhouse gas reduction targets are within reach. That is the outcome of a recent analysis by ABN Amro into the feasibility of the Netherlands' climate ambitions. But in order to achieve them, we will need to step up our efforts in many areas.

The bank examined 21 sectors that together account for more than three-quarters of the Netherlands' total greenhouse gas emissions. It looked at what reduction measures are possible with the current state of the art, and how much emissions are saved by taking those measures.

Measures that are currently up for grabs are energy savings, electrification, the rollout of renewable energy, the replacement of fossil fuels and the insulation of buildings. This more or less low-hanging fruit is enough to achieve the 55 percent reduction by 2030. But for that to happen, companies will have to be energetic about it. According to ABN Amro, many sectors need to do more than they have done in recent years.

High and low flyers

The electricity sector is one of the great pioneers of decarbonization. This is not surprising, given the boom in renewable electricity in recent years. The paper, building materials and electrical industries are also leading the way. These four sectors are on their way to climate neutrality by 2050 in the "baseline scenario" in which climate policies gradually become more stringent, and companies show average ambition to reduce their emissions.

Energy-intensive sectors such as the petroleum and base metal industries lag behind. The researchers note that greenhouse gas emissions there are only minimally reduced. Petroleum companies, for example, reduced their emissions by only 5 percent between 1990 and 2022. To meet the 2030 targets, these companies would now have to reduce emissions by 6 percent annually - a virtually impossible task.

Obstacles

ABN Amro identifies several major obstacles that apply to virtually all sectors. First of all, time is running out: meeting targets for 2030 means taking action very soon. Also throwing a spanner in the works are the limited availability of personnel, material shortages and high costs. Staff shortages are already hampering the electrification of numerous companies. The problem of grid congestion is a good example. Cost-cutting measures such as building insulation require a large commitment of resources. In addition, it is difficult to come up with financial plans - the costs of climate measures do not always outweigh the benefits.

An even more difficult hurdle to overcome is the climate goal for 2050. The ambition is for the Netherlands to be climate neutral by then - which means net zero emissions. This seems out of reach for almost all sectors at the moment.

Natural gas

And then there are the figures from CBS. They report today that Dutch natural gas consumption was 5 percent lower in 2023 than in 2022. So the decline that started after the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. This is partly due to households and buildings such as hospitality and hospitals. These saw decreases of 11 and 7 percent in natural gas consumption, respectively. Significantly less natural gas was also used for electricity generation: down 6 percent from 2021.

Industry showed a mixed picture. And a picture that shows partial similarities with ABN Amro's research. For example, the already significantly decarbonized paper industry is set to use 28 percent less natural gas by 2023. And polluting oil refineries used as much as 37 percent more natural gas than a year earlier. A positive exception to the rule is the base metals industry, where natural gas consumption fell 15 percent. This is probably mainly due to the partial closure of large metal producers due to still high energy prices.

Read more:

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