Fitch Ratings has assigned China-based Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. a first-time Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB' and Shareholder Support Rating (SSR) of 'bbb'.

The Outlook is Stable.

Industrial is 29.16% owned by the Fujian provincial government, with 20.44% directly held by the Fujian Provincial Department of Finance and 8.72% by the Fujian State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) through its wholly owned subsidiary, Fujian Investment & Development Group Co., Ltd.

Industrial is a fully licensed securities firm in China and headquartered in Fuzhou, the capital of Fujian province. It has a leading securities franchise within the province and about 30% market share in deal counts in the local debt underwriting market.

Key Rating Drivers

Support-Driven Ratings: Industrial's IDR and SSR are underpinned by Fitch's expectation that extraordinary shareholder support would be forthcoming from the Fujian provincial government in the event of stress. Fitch assesses Industrial's standalone credit profile below the level of its SSR.

The ratings reflect Industrial's important role in providing comprehensive capital market services to support the province's financial and social development and stability, the Fujian Provincial Department of Finance's legal obligation to provide capital support as a major and controlling shareholder as stipulated in its company by-laws, the shareholder's strong oversight over Industrial's business strategy and operations, and the high reputational risk to the provincial government if the subsidiary were to default.

Strong Strategic Alignment: Industrial serves an important role in supporting Fujian's economic and social development. Industrial benefits from its strong local franchise and linkage with the provincial government in its role as a key financing intermediary that provides debt and equity underwriting services to local enterprises.

In addition, Industrial works with various city governments in Fujian to serve as the asset manager and investor for various government-directed sector funds to participate in major local government-led investment projects and provide seed funding to industries and corporates that are important to Fujian's economic and social development.

Relatively Stable Profitability: Industrial's profitability, measured by operating income/average equity, rose to an annualised 9.2% in 1H23, from 7.8% in 2022. The increase was due mainly to fair-value gains from proprietary trading positions, as capital-market sentiment recovered gradually from severe Covid-19 restrictions. Industrial has exhibited greater stability in earnings than its peers in market downturns due to its more meaningful product diversification. However, its return profile is inherently susceptible to changes in the economy and market sentiment.

Healthy Capital Position: Industrial has consistently maintained adequate leverage relative to the business risks it undertakes, retaining an adequate capital buffer against unexpected market shocks. Its net adjusted tangible leverage has stayed in the range of 3.0x-3.6x over 2019-1H23.

Reliance on Wholesale Funding: Industrial, similar to its industry peers, relies on short-term wholesale funding and uses repo transactions to fund its bond investments. Industrial mitigates the risk by having adequate underlying collateral against the repos, mainly in the form of government, financial and corporate bonds that are of adequate quality. In addition, the company's strong relationships with the local government and financial institutions also help support its funding and liquidity profile.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

Negative rating action could occur if Fitch sees a weakening in the linkage between the Fujian provincial government and Industrial, such as Industrial's diminishing role to the provincial government or change of strategy that makes it deviate meaningfully from the provincial government's core policy focus, a dilution in ownership or control, and material unexpected losses from activities outside of the remit of the provincial government's core policy objectives.

Weakening of the provincial government's propensity to support Industrial, either as perceived by Fitch or evident from a material delay or shortfall in capital and liquidity provision when needed, will also lead to a rating downgrade.

The IDR and SSR are also sensitive to Fitch's assessment of Fujian's credit profile.

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

Positive rating action could be triggered if Fitch sees significant strengthening of linkages between the Fujian provincial government and Industrial, which would require Industrial to develop a stronger business strategy in line with the provincial government's core policy focus, increased shareholding or control, and strong legal commitment for the controlling shareholder to support the subsidiary's contingent funding needs.

Date of Relevant Committee

18 January 2024

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings

Industrial's IDR and SSR are underpinned by Fitch's expectation that extraordinary shareholder support would be forthcoming from the Fujian provincial government in the event of stress.

ESG Considerations

The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products#esg-relevance-scores.

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