Financials Mach Natural Resources LP

Equities

MNR

US55445L1008

Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

Real-time Estimate Cboe BZX Other stock markets 12:09:59 2024-05-17 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
20.74 ^USD	+0.07%		+2.82%	+25.83%

May. 14	Transcript : Mach Natural Resources LP, Q1 2024 Earnings Call, May 14, 2024
May. 14	Mach Natural Resources LP Declares Cash Distribution for the First Quarter of 2024, Payable on June 10, 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	1,567	1,968	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	2,221	2,645	2,601	2,598
P/E ratio	4.52 x	6.08 x	5.26 x	5.65 x
Yield	5.76%	14.4%	13.8%	14.9%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.06 x	1.83 x	1.77 x	1.96 x
EV / Revenue	2.91 x	2.45 x	2.34 x	2.59 x
EV / EBITDA	4.93 x	4.1 x	3.88 x	4.21 x
EV / FCF	11.7 x	9.58 x	8.49 x	8.9 x
FCF Yield	8.53%	10.4%	11.8%	11.2%
Price to Book	-	-	-	-
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	95,000	95,000	-	-
Reference price ²	16.49	20.72	20.72	20.72
Announcement Date	4/1/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	-	762.3	1,078	1,110	1,004
EBITDA ¹	-	450.1	645.8	670.2	616.5
EBIT ¹	-	359.1	437.5	482.6	403.5
Operating Margin	-	47.11%	40.6%	43.48%	40.21%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	516.8	346.6	323.8	401.6	348.5
Net income ¹	516.8	346.6	323.8	374.1	348.5
Net margin	-	45.46%	30.04%	33.71%	34.73%
EPS ²	-	3.652	3.410	3.940	3.665
Free Cash Flow ¹	-	189.4	276	306.5	292
FCF margin	-	24.84%	25.61%	27.62%	29.1%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	42.07%	42.74%	45.73%	47.36%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	54.64%	85.25%	81.92%	83.79%
Dividend per Share ²	-	0.9500	2.980	2.855	3.080
Announcement Date	8/30/23	4/1/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	175.4	227.8	239.2	272.5	275.9	284.1	282.2
EBITDA ¹	139.7	102.8	169.1	151.3	162.5	171.1	171.5
EBIT ¹	92.39	101.9	67.24	113.6	116.6	125.2	126.8
Operating Margin	52.68%	44.71%	28.12%	41.7%	42.25%	44.08%	44.96%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	83.48	93.57	41.7	86.94	93.77	105.1	105.1
Net income ¹	83.74	93.57	41.7	79.44	86.77	97.07	97.83
Net margin	47.75%	41.07%	17.44%	29.16%	31.45%	34.17%	34.67%
EPS ²	-	-	0.4400	0.6500	0.8000	0.9000	1.030
Dividend per Share ²	-	0.9500	0.8550	0.7000	0.6000	0.7300	0.7500
Announcement Date	12/7/23	4/1/24	5/13/24	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	654	677	633	630
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	1.454 x	1.048 x	0.9444 x	1.022 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-	189	276	307	292
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	-	-	-	-	-
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	-	-	-	-	-
Assets ¹	-	-	-	-	-
Book Value Per Share	-	-	-	-	-
Cash Flow per Share ²	-	5.180	5.900	6.030	5.920
Capex ¹	-	302	264	321	320
Capex / Sales	-	39.67%	24.52%	28.95%	31.84%
Announcement Date	8/30/23	4/1/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Mach Natural Resources LP

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

20.72 USD

Average target price

26.5 USD

Spread / Average Target

+27.90%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

	1st Jan change	Capi.
MACH NATURAL RESOURCES LP	+25.83%	1.97B
CHEVRON CORPORATION	+8.62%	297B
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CNOOC LIMITED	+48.92%	122B
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED	+19.84%	80.94B
EOG RESOURCES, INC.	+6.53%	73.52B
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION	+5.58%	55.73B
HESS CORPORATION	+8.87%	48B
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD	-11.43%	35.4B
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY, INC.	+26.50%	34.7B

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