Morgan Stanley anticipates a muted market reaction to Ampol's 4Q update, which revealed a Lytton Refiner Margin (LRM) of US$10.52/bbl, down -11% on the previous corresponding period. This outcome was a -34% miss versus the consensus forecast.

Refinery production also missed consensus by -9% due to an unplanned outage at year's end, explains the broker.

Based on management's FY23 replacement cost operating profit (RCOP) group earnings (EBIT) guidance of $1,270 (consensus $1,307), the analysts believe Q4 accounted for at least $257m of the total.

Target $35.48. Equal-weight rating. Industry view is Attractive.

FY23 results are due on February 19.

Sector: 0.

Target price is $35.48.Current Price is $35.07. Difference: $0.41 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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