Morgan Stanley highlights the Tampa ammonia price has declined -30% to US$1000/t, -38% below the March 2022 peak of $1,625/t. The Tampa price is the reference price for ammonia sold at Incitec Pivot's Waggaman plant in Louisiana.

While the current price is in-line with the broker's forecast, there's now considered to be a more challenging environment for short-term performance. The Equal-weight rating and $4.05 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Sector: Materials.

Target price is $4.05.Current Price is $3.50. Difference: $0.55 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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