Nomura : Individual Investor Survey December 2021(PDF 475KB)

News Release

Nomura Individual

Investor Survey

December 2021

16 December 2021

Global Research Division

Nomura Securities Co., Ltd.

The Nomura Individual Investor Survey is a periodic survey conducted with the aim of better understanding investing activity by individuals and providing information on related trends.

Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey	December 16, 2021

1. Survey results

(1) Nomura I-View Index at 35.8, highest level since June 2018 survey

The Nomura Individual Investor Market View Index (Nomura I-View Index), based on respondents' three-month outlook for share prices and calculated by subtracting the percentage of responses for "fall" from that for "rise," was 35.8 in December 2021, up 4.0pt versus the previous survey. The Nikkei 225 reference level (6 December 2021 close) was 27,927.37, down 1,732.52 versus the previous survey (6 September 2021 close of 29,659.89).

Fig. 1: The Nomura I-View Index and reference level of Nikkei 225 at time of survey

(DI)	Nomura I-View Index (lhs)	(¥)
90	32,000
	Past average for index (lhs)	30,000
80	Nikkei 225 at time of survey (rhs)
	28,000
70		26,000
60		24,000
50		22,000

40	20,000
18,000
30	16,000

20

14,000

10

12,000

10,000

0

8,000

-10

6,000

06/4

07/4

08/4

09/4

10/4

11/4

12/4

13/4

14/4

15/4

16/4

17/4

18/4

19/4

20/4

21/4

(yy/m)

Note: (1) The Nomura I-View Index is based on data collected by this survey and expressed as a diffusion index (DI). The calculation method is as follows: ([(number of responses indicating expected rise in share prices in the next three months) minus (number of responses indicating expected fall in share prices in the next three months)] divided by number of respondents) x 100. The figure for January 2010 used here excludes those respondents who projected that the Nikkei Average would be flat. (2) The Nomura I-View Index ranges from -100 to +100. (2) The Nomura I-View Index ranges from -100 to +100. The closer to +100, the more bullish the outlook held by individual investors. The closer to -100, the more bearish the outlook held by individual investors.

The combined percentage of respondents expecting the Nikkei 225 to rise over the next three months was 67.9%, up 2.0ppt from 65.9% in the previous survey. The percentage of respondents expecting a "rise of about 1,000 points" was down 10.9ppt versus the previous survey at 29.5%. The percentage of respondents expecting a "rise of about 2,000 points" rose 4.8ppt to 20.5%, while the percentage expecting a "rise of more than 2,000 points" was up 8.1ppt at 17.9%.

The proportion expecting a "fall of about 1,000 points" declined 0.1ppt to 20.7%. The proportion expecting a "fall of about 2,000 points" was down 1.4ppt at 6.2%, while the proportion expecting a "fall of more than 2,000 points" was down 0.5ppt at 5.2% (Figure 2).

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Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey	December 16, 2021

Fig. 2: Outlook for Nikkei 225 during the next three months

Rise of more than 2,000 points

Rise of about 2,000 points

Rise of about 1,000 points

Fall of about 1,000 points

Fall of about 2,000 points

Fall of more than 2,000 points

Sep 2021

Dec 2021

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

(% of responses)

Note: Respondents were asked to share their outlook for the Nikkei 225 during the next three months based on the 6 December 2021 close of 27,927. Respondents could choose one answer from a possible six responses ranging from a rise of more than 2,000 points to a fall of more than 2,000 points, with 1,000-point increments in between.

(2) Increased focus on "international affairs"

Respondents were asked to select the factor most likely to affect the stock market over the next three months. The response rate for "international affairs" rose 32.3ppt versus the previous survey to 57.1%. The percentage responding "market factors & psychological factors" rose 5.9ppt to 14.2%. The percentage responding domestic politics meanwhile dropped 43.7ppt to 6.6%.

Fig. 3: Impact of factors on the stock market

International affairs
Market factors & psychological factors
Domestic politics
Domestic corporate earnings
Weather & natural disasters
Forex trends							Sep 2021
Domestic interest rates							Dec 2021
0	10	20	30	40	50	60
								(% of responses)

Note: Respondents were asked to choose one answer from a possible seven responses concerning factors likely to impact the stock market over the next three months or so.

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Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey	December 16, 2021

(3) Appeal of pharmaceuticals increases, while appeal of consumer sector declines

On the outlook for sectors over the next three months or so, we calculate a diffusion index (DI) by subtracting the percentage of responses for "unappealing" from that for "appealing." The DI for the pharmaceuticals sector increased 3.6pt versus the previous survey to 25.2, while the DI for the consumer category declined 3.5pt to -9.2 (Figures 4 and 5).

Fig. 4: Investment appeal by sector

	Sector			DI			Breakdown of DI (% of responses)			(Ref)
							Appealing			Unappealing			Previous DI
	Pharmaceuticals	25.2	28.5		3.3	21.6
	Electrical equipment/precision equipment	7.7	12.7		5.0	9.5
	Materials	7.4	16.3		8.9	4.2
	Capital goods/other	0.8	6.5	5.7	-0.2
	Telecommunications	0.3	4.9	4.6	1.5
	Automobiles	-5.0	7.0	12.0	-3.1
	Consumer	-9.2	9.4	18.6	-5.7
	Transportation and utilities	-10.1	10.2		20.3	-9.9
	Financials	-17.1	4.5	21.6	-17.9

Note: Respondents were given nine sectors and asked to choose one they viewed as an appealing investment target and one they viewed as unappealing. For each sector, we calculated a DI by subtracting the percentage of responses for "unappealing" from that for "appealing." The materials sector comprises mining, textiles, paper & pulp, chemicals, oil, ceramics, steel, nonferrous metals, and trading houses. The financial sector comprises banks, miscellaneous finance, securities, and insurance. The capital goods/other sector comprises construction, machinery, shipbuilding, transportation equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing, and real estate. The transportation and utilities sector comprises railroads & buses, trucking, shipping, airlines, warehousing, electric power, and gas. The consumer sector comprises marine products, food, retail, and services.

Fig. 5: DIs for selected sectors

(DI)	Automobiles
50
40	Financials
30	Capital goods/other
20	Pharmaceuticals

10	Electrical equipment/precision
0	equipment
Materials

-10

Telecommunications

-20

-30	Transportation and utilities
-40	Consumer

12/1	13/1	14/1	15/1	16/1	17/1	18/1	19/1	20/1	21/1	(yy/m)

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Nomura | JPN Nomura Individual Investor Survey	December 16, 2021

(4) Most-watched stocks

Respondents were asked to name one stock that they would like to have in their portfolio, or that they find appealing, regardless of whether their investment horizon is the short term or long term (including stocks actually held). We show the most popular responses in Figure 6.

Fig. 6: Name a stock with appeal (1,000 valid responses)

Code	Company	No. of		Code	Company	No. of
respondents		respondents
7203	Toyota Motor	101		7201	Nissan Motor	12
4507	Shionogi	46		6501	Hitachi	11
4502	Takeda Pharmaceutical	28		2702	MCDONALD'S HOLDINGS COMPANY(JAPAN),LTD.	10
9434	SoftBank Corp	28		4661	Oriental Land	10
9984	SoftBank Group	21		6702	Fujitsu	9
2914	Japan Tobacco	20		8031	Mitsui & Co	9
8267	Aeon	19		4755	Rakuten	8
9432	Nippon Telegraph and Telephone	18		6594	Nidec	8
8591	Orix	17		9104	Mitsui OSK Lines	8
9202	ANA Holdings	17		6920	Lasertec	7
7974	Nintendo	16		6981	Murata Manufacturing	7
4901	Fujifilm Holdings	15		8001	Itochu	7
6758	Sony	15		9020	East Japan Railway	7
8035	Tokyo Electron	14		9201	Japan Airlines	7
9101	Nippon Yusen	14		9433	KDDI	7
5020	ENEOS Holdings	13		2811	Kagome	6
8058	Mitsubishi Corp	13		5201	AGC	6
8306	Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group	13		6752	Panasonic	6
2897	Nissin Foods Holdings	12

Note: Not included in valid responses were answers of "none" or clearly mistaken responses.

(5) Rise in percentage of investors expecting yen to depreciate against US dollar

On the outlook for USD/JPY over the next three months, the combined percentage of respondents expecting the yen to depreciate against the US dollar was 53.0%, up 8.0ppt from the previous survey. The response rate for "fall of about ¥5 against the dollar" rose 5.2ppt versus the previous survey to 45.0%. The response rate for "fall of about ¥10 against the dollar" rose 1.9ppt to 5.6%, while that for "fall of more than ¥10 against the dollar" rose 0.9ppt to 2.4%.

The response rate for "rise of about ¥5 against the dollar" declined 10.2ppt to 34.0%. The response rate for "rise of about ¥10 against the dollar" rose 0.8ppt to 10.2%, and the response rate for "rise of more than ¥10 against the dollar" rose 1.4ppt to 2.8% (Figure 7).

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