After nine years of sustained growth - sales rose from €67 million to €338 million between 2012 and 2021, an annualized rate of 20% - the year 2022 marks a first slowdown, with sales reaching $347 million and profitability hard hit by the increase in the cost structure.

To the group's credit, the first three quarters of the year just ended were marked by a real economic stagnation in Germany, a direct consequence of the energy crisis following the invasion of Ukraine.

However, the economy recovered at the end of the year, with the fourth quarter being secunet's best ever. This leads management to forecast a turnover of €375 million for 2023, i.e. a growth of 9.5%. If things are improving, the slowdown seems to be confirmed.

Cash generation, negative for the first time in ten years, will suffer similarly in 2022. This is the result of a major drawdown of working capital to cope with the sudden upturn in orders in the last quarter. At the same time, the group made a €50 million acquisition - that of cloud specialist SysEleven, which allows it to integrate the entire value chain.

There is no cause for alarm, as Secunet still defends an excellent balance sheet, with no debts, and remains 75% controlled by Giesecke + Devrient - a reference in secure printing: tickets, passports, etc.

However, it will be essential to break free from the public sphere and break into the private sphere to ensure future growth. This is the main risk, because experience shows that this transition is often more difficult than expected. Palantir, to name but one, provides an illustrative example.

Secunet is valued at nearly x40 of its profits, i.e. on a long-term low compared to its historical range of between x40 and x70 of profits. As we can see, the market has always oscillated between optimism and euphoria. In this respect, there is no doubt that a new disappointment in terms of growth would be very badly received.