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Projected Income Statement: Shopify Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 2,929 | 4,612 | 5,600 | 7,060 | 8,880 | 11,464 | 14,125 | 17,145 |
| Change | - | 57.43% | 21.42% | 26.07% | 25.78% | 29.09% | 23.21% | 21.39% |
| EBITDA 1 | 486.1 | 762.1 | 42.88 | 814 | 1,523 | 1,951 | 2,620 | 3,497 |
| Change | - | 56.77% | -94.37% | 1,798.45% | 87.1% | 28.1% | 34.32% | 33.46% |
| EBIT 1 | 437.4 | 718 | 6.059 | 782 | 1,487 | 1,908 | 2,522 | 3,334 |
| Change | - | 64.17% | -99.16% | 12,806.42% | 90.15% | 28.28% | 32.22% | 32.17% |
| Interest Paid 1 | - | -3.493 | - | - | -1,153 | -122 | - | - |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 240.4 | 3,141 | -3,623 | 185 | 2,228 | 1,250 | 2,252 | 2,801 |
| Change | - | 1,206.6% | -215.36% | 105.11% | 1,104.32% | -43.9% | 80.18% | 24.35% |
| Net income 1 | 319.5 | 2,915 | -3,460 | 132 | 2,019 | 1,036 | 1,981 | 2,542 |
| Change | - | 812.23% | -218.72% | 103.81% | 1,429.55% | -48.7% | 91.31% | 28.27% |
| Announcement Date | 2/17/21 | 2/16/22 | 2/15/23 | 2/13/24 | 2/11/25 | - | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Shopify Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | -5,630 | -6,857 | -4,140 | -4,092 | -4,561 | -6,479 | -9,115 | -12,803 |
| Change | - | -21.79% | 39.62% | 1.16% | -11.46% | -42.05% | -40.69% | -40.46% |
| Announcement Date | 2/17/21 | 2/16/22 | 2/15/23 | 2/13/24 | 2/11/25 | - | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Shopify Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 41.73 | 50.79 | 50.02 | 39 | 19 | 23.46 | 27.61 | 40.64 |
| Change | - | 21.7% | -1.52% | -22.03% | -51.28% | 23.47% | 17.68% | 47.21% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | 383.2 | 453.6 | -186.5 | 905 | 1,597 | 1,967 | 2,592 | 3,289 |
| Change | - | 18.37% | -141.1% | 585.34% | 76.46% | 23.17% | 31.79% | 26.87% |
| Announcement Date | 2/17/21 | 2/16/22 | 2/15/23 | 2/13/24 | 2/11/25 | - | - | - |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Shopify Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | ||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 16.59% | 16.53% | 0.77% | 11.53% | 17.15% | 17.02% | 18.55% | 20.4% |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 14.93% | 15.57% | 0.11% | 11.08% | 16.75% | 16.64% | 17.86% | 19.44% |
| EBT Margin (%) | 8.2% | 68.1% | -64.7% | 2.62% | 25.09% | 10.9% | 15.94% | 16.33% |
| Net margin (%) | 10.91% | 63.2% | -61.79% | 1.87% | 22.74% | 9.04% | 14.03% | 14.82% |
| FCF margin (%) | 13.08% | 9.84% | -3.33% | 12.82% | 17.98% | 17.16% | 18.35% | 19.18% |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | 119.94% | 15.56% | 5.39% | 685.61% | 79.1% | 189.91% | 130.82% | 129.4% |
Profitability | ||||||||
| ROA | 8.73% | 27.62% | 0.39% | 8.59% | 12.96% | 10.89% | 14.31% | 14.94% |
| ROE | 10.43% | 9.29% | 0.49% | 10.94% | 15.86% | 14.99% | 16.62% | 18.18% |
Financial Health | ||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Debt / Free cash flow | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Capital Intensity | ||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | 1.42% | 1.1% | 0.89% | 0.55% | 0.21% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.24% |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | 8.58% | 6.66% | 116.65% | 4.79% | 1.25% | 1.2% | 1.05% | 1.16% |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | 10.89% | 11.2% | -26.82% | 4.31% | 1.19% | 1.19% | 1.07% | 1.24% |
Items per share | ||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | 0.3442 | 0.396 | -0.1078 | 0.7287 | 1.242 | 1.592 | 1.984 | 2.829 |
| Change | - | 15.06% | -127.22% | 775.97% | 70.39% | 28.19% | 24.67% | 42.57% |
| Dividend per Share 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | 5.353 | 9.77 | 6.461 | 7.047 | 9.511 | 9.915 | 11.96 | 14.45 |
| Change | - | 82.51% | -33.87% | 9.06% | 34.97% | 4.24% | 20.66% | 20.78% |
| EPS 1 | 0.259 | 2.29 | -2.73 | 0.1 | 1.55 | 0.7998 | 1.526 | 1.947 |
| Change | - | 784.17% | -219.21% | 103.66% | 1,450% | -48.4% | 90.74% | 27.62% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 1,226,711 | 1,256,003 | 1,272,089 | 1,286,099 | 1,292,100 | 1,301,843 | 1,301,843 | 1,301,843 |
| Announcement Date | 2/17/21 | 2/16/22 | 2/15/23 | 2/13/24 | 2/11/25 | - | - | - |
| 2025 * | 2026 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E ratio | 200x | 105x |
| PBR | 16.1x | 13.4x |
| EV / Sales | 17.6x | 14.1x |
| Yield | - | - |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Trader
This super rating is the result of a weighted average of the rankings based on the following ratings: Global Valuation (Composite), EPS Revisions (4 months), and Visibility (Composite). We recommend that you carefully review the associated descriptions.
Investor
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Global
This composite rating is the result of an average of the rankings based on the following ratings: Fundamentals (Composite), Valuation (Composite), Financial Estimates Revisions (Composite), Consensus (Composite), and Visibility (Composite). The company must be covered by at least 4 of these 5 ratings for the calculation to be performed. We recommend that you carefully review the associated descriptions.
Quality
This composite rating is the result of an average of the rankings based on the following ratings: Capital Efficiency (Composite), Quality of Financial Reporting (Composite), and Financial Health (Composite). The company must be covered by at least 2 of these 3 ratings for the calculation to be performed. We recommend that you carefully review the associated descriptions.
Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise
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- Financials Shopify Inc.
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