Thai Oil : Financial Result Conference Call Q3/2023

Q3/23 Financial Result

Conference Call

8 November 2023

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Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it.

Some statements made in this material are forward-looking with relevant assumptions, which are subject to uncertainties, which may cause the actual result/performance to be materially deviated from any future result/performance implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note that the company and management/staff are not capable to control and guarantee if these forward-looking statements will be accurately materialized, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

Financial Performance

Q3 & 9M/23 - Financial Performance

TOP Group Net Profit

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Gross Refining Margin - GRM

	Q2/23			Q3/23				9M/22				9M/23
	1,117 MB			10,828 MB			32,521 MB				16,499 MB
								17,334
						12,791
										4,370
			9,638		31,319			22,147
	523
	262		10,540
	15
	-
	2,951
	(1,929)		(1,773)		(2,114)		(1,966)
		(4,518)						(3,770)
	(705)		(379)		(15,128)		(321)
			(2,680)			(3,961)
						(2,655)
						(9,026)

Remark

Gain on GPSC share sale before tax

Stock g/l

Net operating profit

Write down on crude & product inventory

Others incl net realized g/l on financial instruments & non- recurring items

F/X g/l on foreign currency assets & liabilities

Deferred tax / (Tax expense)

	$/bbl	Q2/23	Q3/23	9M/22		9M/23
	Market GRM	4.5	12.4	12.9		9.0
	Stock	(2.0)		4.5
	9.8		1.5
	Gain/(Loss)
	Accounting	2.5	22.2	17.5		10.5
	GRM
	Gross Integrated Margin - GIM
	Aromatics &	0.9	0.7	0.3		0.8
	LAB
	Lube base	0.8	0.5	1.1		0.8
	Market GIM	6.1	13.6	14.2		10.5
	Accounting	4.2	23.3	18.7		12.0
	GIM
	Utilization / Production Rate
	Refinery	113%	110%	108%		112%

• Stock gain/(loss) : Q2/23 (1,929) MB, Q3/23 9,638 MB, 9M/22 12,791 MB, 9M/23 4,370 MB
• Reversal/ (write-down) on crude and petroleum product inventory : Q2/23 15 MB, Q3/23 (1,773) MB, 9M/22 (2,114) MB, 9M/23 (1,966) MB
• F/X gain/(loss) on gain on foreign currency assets & liabilities : Q2/23 (705) MB, Q3/23 (379) MB, 9M/22 (2,655) MB, 9M/23 (321) MB
• (Tax expense)/Reversal of Tax expense : Q2/23 523 MB, Q3/23 (2,680) MB, 9M/22 (9,026) MB, 9M/23 (3,961) MB
• Net realized gain/(loss) on financial instruments : Q2/23 449 MB, Q3/23 (2,490) MB, 9M/22 (16,210) MB, 9M/23 (1,713) MB
• Other items: Net gain/(loss) on FV of financial instrument Q2/23 (187) MB, Q3/23 (2,028) MB, 9M/22 1,082 MB, 9M/23 (2,057) MB

Aromatics	71%	74%	73%	71%
LAB	125%	123%	119%	123%
Base Oil	83%	79%	90%	80%

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Performance Breakdown

						Unit : Million Baht (MB)
		(1)	(2)	Others &	(3)	Consolidated
	Petroleum & Lube Base	Power
	Petrochemical	New Business	Net Profit
Q2/23	397	314	349	215		1,117
Q3/23	10,068	(12)	567	283		10,828
9M/22	32,788	(1,352)	1,097	892		32,521
9M/23	14,293	514	1,388	711		16,499

QoQ

YoY

Petroleum

Higher contribution from stronger light and middle distillate from tight supply following refinery outages

Lube

Softened contribution from

weakened product spread due to soft demand during rainy season

Petroleum

Lower contribution from lower product spreads, less stock gain, and no gain from GPSC share sales

Lube

Softened contribution from weakened product spread from weak demand following China's economic slowdown

Aromatics & LAB

Decreasing contribution mainly from lower aromatics margin due to higher feedstock cost and weak demand from China

Olefins

Decreasing contribution due to increasing supply from Philippines, coupled with weak demand during rainy season.

Aromatics & LAB

Stronger contribution from improving aromatic spreads supported by less concerns on Russia-Ukraineconflicts and recovery from COVID pandemic

Olefins

Increasing contribution from higher

sales volume

TOP SPP

Higher contribution due to lower expense from refinancing cost.

GPSC

Gain on dividend income from

GPSC

TOP SPP

Higher contribution from an increase in revenue after TOP SPP expansion COD in Q2'23

GPSC

Recognize dividend income

170 MB as reduced holding in GPSC to 10%

Solvent & Chemicals

Higher contribution due to higher sales volume tracking improving demand

Ethanol

Lower contribution due to no dividend receive from UBE.

Solvent & Chemicals

Lower contribution following lower crude oil prices

Ethanol

Lower contribution from higher feedstock cost

1. Petrochemical: Including Aromatics business from 100% of TPX, Olefin business from 15% of CAP net profit and 75% of LAB net profit
2. Power: TOP shareholding in GPSC changed from 20.78% to 10 % end of May'22 and change from equity method to general investment (receive dividend)
3. Others & New Business: Consisting of Solvent, Ethanol and other business

Consolidated Financial Performance	5

(MB)	Q3/23	Q2/23	QoQ+/(-)	Q3/22	YoY+/(-)	9M/23	9M/22	YoY+/(-)	(D)
Sales Revenue	119,656	108,467	11,189(A)	124,174	(4,518)	344,066	382,571	(38,505)
Net Realized G/(L) on Financial Instrument
(2,490)	449	(2,939)		(220)	(2,270)	(1,713)	(16,210)	14,497
										(E)
EBITDA	18,973	4,618	14,355(B)	(568)	19,541	31,772	34,789	(3,017)
EBITDA excl. Stk G/(L)&NRV	11,108	6,532	4,576		8,434	2,674	29,368	24,112	5,256
Net Loss on FV of Financial Instrument	(2,028)	(187)	(1,841)(C)	5,090	(7,118)	(2,057)	1,082	(3,139)
FX G/(L)(1) & CCS	(517)	(1,017)	500		(1,710)	1,193	(962)	(2,717)	1,755
Gain from GPSC shares sales & reclassification (2)	-	-	-		-	-	-	17,334	(17,334)	(F)
Financial cost(3)	(1,032)	(1,081)	49		(940)	(92)	(3,036)	(2,866)	(170)
Tax Expense	(2,680)	523	(3,203)		156	(2,836)	(3,961)	(9,026)	5,065
Net Profit	10,828	1,117	9,711		12	10,816	16,499	32,521	(16,022)
Net Profit excl. GPSC shares sales	10,828	1,117	9,711		(12,868)	23,696	16,499	19,641	(3,142)
EPS (THB/Share)	4.85	0.50	4.35		0.01	4.84	7.39	15.92	(8.53)
Stock G/(L) and NRV	7,865	(1,914)	9,779		(9,002)	16,867	2,404	10,677	(8,273)
THB/US$ - average selling	35.34	34.66	0.68		36.58	(1.24)	34.69	34.81	(0.12)
THB/US$ - ending	36.72	35.75	0.97		38.07	(1.35)	36.72	38.07	(1.35)

1. FX G/(L) mainly from AR/AP, FCD, Bond, loan, and other liabilities
2. Represent following TFRS5 (Assets held for sales)
3. Excluding interest expenses which were capitalized in PPE

QoQ Analysis		YoY Analysis

1. Higher average selling price tracking crude oil price.
2. Higher Market GIM from refinery product spreads and stock gain
3. Higher loss on financial instrument due to increasing refinery spreads

1. Lower average selling price tracking crude oil price
2. Lower EBITDA from softening refinery product spreads and lower stock gain

1. No gain from GPSC share sales 17,334 MB (One-time item)

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Consolidated Cash Flow

(Unit: MB)	9M'22	9M'23
Operating Cash Flow (CFO)	22,778	19,985
Net income	41,922	20,589
Depreciation & NRV	8,669	5,121
Other adj.	(20,888)	4,840
Change in working capital 1)
(6,925)	(10,566)

Free Cash Flow (CFO +CFI)	18,987	12,544

	9M'22	9M'23
Investing Cash Flow (CFI)	(3,790)	(7,441)
Dividend income	841	514
Short term investment	22,047	-
CAPEX (PP&E) & others	(26,679)2)	(7,955)2)

Financing Cash Flow (CFF)	(23,388)	(19,698)
Loans proceeding	24,497	11,467
Loans repayment	(45,182)	(13,725)
Bond issue / (Paid)	(3,000)	(6,381)
Equity Injection	10,288	-
Interest	(5,079)	(4,995)
Dividend& Others	(4,912)	(6,064)

Beginning 2023

Cash + S/T Investment

43,919

+

Increase / (Decrease)

(7,154)

+

Effect of FX changes 2)

(67)

=

Ending 9M/23

Cash + S/T Investment

36,698

1. Include extending trade credit term (ETC) from PTT
2. Effect of FX changes was mainly from the FX gain/loss of FCD and other adjustments

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TOP Group Financial Position & Financial Ratios

Statements of Financial Position

Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Jun 23

(Unit: million THB)
	444,581
Cash & ST	43,919
110,192
investment
109,909
Current

422,207

36,698	91,060	Trade Payable
90,611
	/ Others

Total Long-Term Debt

168,096 million THB

(US$ 4,580 million

equivalence)

Net Debt

131,398 million THB

(US$ 3,632 million

equivalence)

Assets	175,731	168,096	Long-Term	(1)
Non-Current			Debt
290,753	294,898
Assets
158,657	163,051	Equities

					31 Dec 22	30 Sep 23
			ROE (2)
				23.2 %			10.3 %
			ROIC (2)
				11.2 %			10.4 %
					Financial Ratios
			Net Debt (4)/ EBITDA		(4)
				Net Debt / Equity
	3.5	3.8
								0.8		0.8
			31-Dec-22		30-Sep-23	31-Dec-22	30-Sep-23

As at 30 Sep 23 (36.70 THB/US$)

	Currency Breakdown		Interest Rate Breakdown
			Float Rate,
	THB,		21%
	34%		Fixed Rate,
	USD,		79%
	66%
	Avg. Debt Life (yrs)		15.28 yrs
	Cost of Debt (Net)		3.94%(3)
	(Gross)	4.35%

(3) Due to yield enhancement

Final rating		Baa3		BBB		A+(Tha)
	Stable Outlook		Stable Outlook		Stable Outlook

(4) As of 30 Sep 23 Net Debt 131,398 MB excluding lease liabilities 20,990 MB

Thank You

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Through Sustainable Energy and Chemicals

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