Oddo BHF maintains its 'outperform' rating on Verallia shares, with a price target reduced from 47 to 45 euros.

Oddo BHF believes that the main disappointment with regard to 2024 guidance stems from the spread effect, which will be largely negative in 2024 (-138 MEe).

According to the broker, we can expect a 10% decline in EBITDA in 2024 (guidance around e1bn), with H1 particularly under pressure (-35% estimated).

'For 2025, the Group should return to better momentum, provided that the market returns to normative growth estimated at 2%.

We are revising up our 2025 EBITDA estimate by 5% to ME 1,100", says Oddo BHF, noting that the consensus is ME 1,086.

The dividend increase from 54% (initial target of +10%/year) to 2.15 E (yield of >6%) for 2023 results is a good indicator of the solidity of the financial structure (leverage of 1.2x vs. 1.6x) and of management's confidence in its medium-term prospects", concludes the research firm.

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