VERALLIA : Oddo BHF slightly reduces its target
Oddo BHF believes that the main disappointment with regard to 2024 guidance stems from the spread effect, which will be largely negative in 2024 (-138 MEe).
According to the broker, we can expect a 10% decline in EBITDA in 2024 (guidance around e1bn), with H1 particularly under pressure (-35% estimated).
'For 2025, the Group should return to better momentum, provided that the market returns to normative growth estimated at 2%.
We are revising up our 2025 EBITDA estimate by 5% to ME 1,100", says Oddo BHF, noting that the consensus is ME 1,086.
The dividend increase from 54% (initial target of +10%/year) to 2.15 E (yield of >6%) for 2023 results is a good indicator of the solidity of the financial structure (leverage of 1.2x vs. 1.6x) and of management's confidence in its medium-term prospects", concludes the research firm.
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