Financials Waste Connections, Inc.

Equities

WCN

CA94106B1013

Environmental Services & Equipment

Real-time Estimate Cboe BZX Other stock markets 03:12:19 2023-11-30 pm EST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
135.34 ^USD	+2.04%		+1.59%	+2.17%

Nov. 27	Wells Fargo Initiates Waste Connections at Overweight Rating With $160 Price Target	MT
Nov. 21	Waste Connections Brief: Downgraded To Peer Perform From Outperform at Wolfe Research On Recent California Incident, says BNN TV	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period : December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Capitalization ¹	19 565	23 941	26 958	35 502	34 086	34 173	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	23 401	27 969	31 075	40 418	40 920	40 783	40 258	39 488
P/E ratio	35,9x	42,4x	132x	57,7x	40,9x	38,6x	31,2x	27,7x
Yield	0,78%	0,73%	0,74%	0,62%	0,71%	0,79%	0,89%	0,95%
Capitalization / Revenue	3,97x	4,44x	4,95x	5,77x	4,73x	4,26x	3,96x	3,72x
EV / Revenue	4,75x	5,19x	5,71x	6,57x	5,67x	5,08x	4,67x	4,30x
EV / EBITDA	14,9x	16,7x	18,7x	21,1x	18,4x	16,2x	14,6x	13,2x
EV / FCF	27,1x	30,5x	36,9x	42,4x	36,9x	33,3x	30,4x	26,0x
FCF Yield	3,70%	3,28%	2,71%	2,36%	2,71%	3,00%	3,29%	3,85%
Price to Book	3,03x	3,45x	3,94x	5,07x	4,80x	4,42x	4,21x	3,93x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	263 507	263 698	262 825	260 527	257 136	257 641	-	-
Reference price ²	74,3	90,8	103	136	133	133	133	133
Announcement Date	13/02/19	12/02/20	17/02/21	16/02/22	15/02/23	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period : December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net sales ¹	4 923	5 389	5 446	6 151	7 212	8 022	8 622	9 174
EBITDA ¹	1 566	1 674	1 662	1 919	2 221	2 516	2 756	2 987
EBIT ¹	832	838	412	1 040	1 242	1 439	1 690	1 869
Operating Margin	16,9%	15,5%	7,57%	16,9%	17,2%	17,9%	19,6%	20,4%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	707	706	254	771	1 049	1 126	1 422	1 612
Net income ¹	547	567	205	618	836	884	1 090	1 209
Net margin	11,1%	10,5%	3,76%	10,0%	11,6%	11,0%	12,6%	13,2%
EPS ²	2,07	2,14	0,78	2,36	3,24	3,43	4,25	4,78
Free Cash Flow ¹	865	917	842	954	1 110	1 224	1 322	1 521
FCF margin	17,6%	17,0%	15,5%	15,5%	15,4%	15,3%	15,3%	16,6%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	55,2%	54,8%	50,7%	49,7%	50,0%	48,7%	48,0%	50,9%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	158%	162%	411%	154%	133%	138%	121%	126%
Dividend per Share ²	0,58	0,67	0,76	0,85	0,95	1,05	1,18	1,27
Announcement Date	02/13/19	02/12/20	02/17/21	02/16/22	02/15/23	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period : December	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	1 534	1 597	1 624	1 646	1 816	1 880	1 869	1 901	2 021	2 065	2 033	2 050	2 187	2 217	2 172
EBITDA ¹	485	506	495	502	567	588	564	567	629	671	651	631	692	728	706
EBIT ¹	267	285	249	274	330	327	312	315	344	353	392	368	418	444	423
Operating Margin	17,4%	17,9%	15,3%	16,6%	18,1%	17,4%	16,7%	16,6%	17,0%	17,1%	19,3%	17,9%	19,1%	20,0%	19,5%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	225	133	212	229	283	286	251	252	278	292	325	298	351	382	359
Net income ¹	177	114	166	180	224	237	194	198	209	229	248	229	271	296	274
Net margin	11,5%	7,16%	10,2%	11,0%	12,3%	12,6%	10,4%	10,4%	10,4%	11,1%	12,2%	11,2%	12,4%	13,4%	12,6%
EPS ²	0,68	0,44	0,64	0,69	0,87	0,92	0,75	0,77	0,81	0,89	0,97	0,90	1,08	1,17	1,06
Dividend per Share ²	0,21	0,21	0,23	0,23	0,23	0,23	0,26	0,26	0,26	0,26	0,29	0,29	0,29	0,29	0,31
Announcement Date	08/04/21	10/27/21	02/16/22	05/03/22	08/02/22	11/02/22	02/15/23	04/26/23	08/02/23	10/25/23	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period : December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net Debt ¹	3 836	4 028	4 117	4 916	6 834	6 609	6 084	5 314
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2,45x	2,41x	2,48x	2,56x	3,08x	2,63x	2,21x	1,78x
Free Cash Flow ¹	865	917	842	954	1 110	1 224	1 322	1 521
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	10,5%	10,7%	10,1%	12,2%	11,9%	14,4%	15,1%	16,0%
Shareholders' equity ¹	5 214	5 273	2 029	5 055	7 049	6 153	7 233	7 575
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5,42%	5,46%	5,02%	5,90%	5,25%	6,11%	6,38%	6,84%
Assets ¹	10 098	10 385	4 079	10 473	15 917	14 466	17 094	17 661
Book Value Per Share ²	24,5	26,3	26,1	26,9	27,6	30,0	31,5	33,7
Cash Flow per Share ²	5,34	5,82	5,34	6,49	7,84	8,32	9,21	9,81
Capex ¹	546	666	597	744	913	932	1 027	1 014
Capex / Sales	11,1%	12,4%	11,0%	12,1%	12,7%	11,6%	11,9%	11,1%
Announcement Date	02/13/19	02/12/20	02/17/21	02/16/22	02/15/23	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Waste Connections, Inc.

Trading Rating :

Investor Rating :

ESG Refinitiv :

C+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

132.64USD

Average target price

155.65USD

Spread / Average Target

+17.35%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Waste Management, Disposal & Recycling Services

	1st Jan change	Capi. (M$)
WASTE CONNECTIONS, INC.	+0.06%	34 173 M $
GFL ENVIRONMENTAL INC.	-5.59%	10 147 M $
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC.	+0.55%	4 624 M $
STERICYCLE, INC.	-8.58%	4 220 M $
CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED	-6.46%	3 579 M $
ZHEFU HOLDING GROUP CO., LTD.	-6.39%	2 679 M $
GRANDBLUE ENVIRONMENT CO., LTD.	-7.04%	1 962 M $
CHINA TIANYING INC.	+7.30%	1 822 M $
SHANGHAI ENVIRONMENT GROUP CO., LTD	+4.26%	1 465 M $
CHINA CONCH VENTURE HOLDINGS LIMITED	-65.51%	1 352 M $

Waste Management, Disposal & Recycling Services