Investor Presentation
May 2020
Agenda
Equity Story | Business | Q1 2020 | Additional | ||||
& | Overview | Results | Information | ||||
Q1 2020 | |||||||
Performance | |||||||
Update | |||||||
pages 2-13 | pages 14-28 | pages 29-41 | pages 42-57 | ||||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 2 |
Europe's Leading Owner and Operator of Residential Real Estate
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Long-term owner and full-scale
operator of Europe's largest listed
multifamily housing portfolio with
more than 415k apartments for small and medium incomes >€53bn fair market value
~€26bn market capitalization
Geographic split (by no. of units)
9%
5%
85%
Germany Austria Sweden
Stockholm
38kGothenburg
apartments Malmö
15 urban
355kgrowthapartments1markets
Mainly
22kViennaapartments
Growing recurring cash earnings per share and DPS | Two types of sustainable shareholder returns4 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Dividend policy: ~70% of recurring cash earnings are distributed as dividends | |||||||||||||||||||||
2.25 | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | |||||||||||||||||
1.90 | 2.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||
7.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||
1.63 | 1.572 | ||||||||||||||||||||
1.32 | 1.44 | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | |||||||||||||||
1.30 | |||||||||||||||||||||
1.12 | 3.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||
0.95 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 2.6% | ||||||||||||||||||
0.67 | 0.74 | ||||||||||||||||||||
2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | ||||||||||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||||||
Recurring cash earnings ("FFO")3 | Dividend | Dividend yield | Organic asset value growth (excl. YC) | ||||||||||||||||||
1Incl. 27k apartments in other strategic locations plus 5k in non-strategic locations that are not shown on the map. 2To be proposed to the next AGM on June 30, 2020. 32013-2018 FFO is "FFO1" and 2019+ FFO is "Group FFO." 4Dividend yield plus l-f-l organic asset value growth from operating performance and investments (excluding yield compression).
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 3 |
Germany's Tried and Tested Social Security System Ensures That No One
Has to Lose A Roof Over Their Head In Case of Financial Distress
Equity Story & Q1 Performance UpdateBusiness OverviewQ1 2020 ResultsAdditional Information
§ | "The Federal Republic of Germany is a democratic and social federal state." |
Article 20(1) of the German Basic Law. | |
! | German's social market economy is based on the principle of solidarity that underpins |
Germany's social security systems. Anyone who cannot participate in the labor market or | |
society because of misfortune, illness, disability, or old age is looked after by the community. | |
4 layers
of
protection
for
tenants
- Kurzarbeitergeld: Short-term labor allowance of 60% to 67% of net salary to keep employees in employment and avoid layoffs despite lack of work.
- ALG I: Unemployment benefit based on 60% to 67% of net salary.
- ALG II: Basic benefits to cover cost-of-living expense including "appropriate levels of expenditure for housing."
- Sozialhilfe: last safety net to protect people from poverty and exclusion, covering necessary living expenses including food, accommodation and clothing.
Paid out of the national | Housing benefits: |
Subsidy towards | |
unemployment fund to | |
housing costs for | |
which employees and | |
people with low | |
employers contribute | |
equally every month | incomes to enable |
people to live in | |
adequate, family- | |
friendly conditions. |
Anyone who can
Tax-funded | demonstrate that |
he or she is in need | |
is legally entitled. |
Additional
layers of
protection
during
COVID-19 pandemic
- No financial background checkfor a period of 6 months for assistance granted between March 1 and June 30.
- Simplified application process: informal applications can be made by phone, e-mail, online or personal visit to the local government office.
- Increased benefits: Kurzarbeitergeld increased from 60%-67% to up to 80%-87%.
Source: Social Security at a Glance 2019. Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. https://www.bmas.de/EN/Services/Publications/a998-social-security-at-a-glance.html
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 4 |
Long-term Structural Support from Residential Market Trends
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Robust rent growth in regulated environments1
Rent growth in regulated marketsfollows a sustainable upward trajectory and is largely independent from GDP developments; rents in unregulated markets go up and downbroadly in line with the GDP development
Regulated (Germany) | Unregulated (USA) |
6 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
-2 | -2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-4 | -4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-6 | -6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GDP, quarterly development y-o-y | Rent growth; quarterly development y-o-y |
Structural supply/demand imbalance2
Germany's average annual residential completions of the last five years fall short of estimated required volumes
700 | Completions (`000) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
600 | Est. required volume (`000) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
500 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
400 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
300 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
200 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
Large gap between in-place values and replacement costs3 | No correlation pattern between interest rates & asset yields4 |
Vonovia (Germany)- fair value/sqm (€; total lettable area) vs. construction costs | Other factorssuch as supply/demand imbalance, rental regulation, market rent growth, | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
location of assets etc. seem to outweigh the impact of interest rateswhen it comes to | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Factor | pricing residential real estate. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
building | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2.5x - 3.0x | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
land | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,677 | 1,865 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,475 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,264 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,054 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
901 | 964 | -0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-0.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-1 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | ||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Market costs | 1992 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
for new | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
constructions | Correlation | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1Sources: Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners), REIS, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, OECD, Note: Due to lack of q-o-q rent growth data for the US, the annual rent growth for a year is assumed to also be the q-o-q rent growth of that year. 2Sources: German Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners). 3Note: VNA 2010 - 2014 refers to Deutsche Annington Portfolio at the time; construction costs excluding land. The land value refers to the share of total fair value allocated to land. 4Yearly asset yields vs. rolling 200d average of 10y interest rates. Sources: Thomson Reuters, bulwiengesa
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 5 |
Fully Committed to the Long-term Nature of Our Business
Equity Story & Q1 Performance UpdateBusiness OverviewQ1 2020 ResultsAdditional Information
MEGATRENDS | Urbanization | Energy | Demographic |
efficiency | change | ||
We give people a place they call home | We are a driving force in the housing industry |
Serving a basic need in a highly relevant market
Scalable B-to-C
business
beyond the
bricks
Our products & services give more than one million people an affordable home in their apartment and neighborhood.
Our actions are guided by a long-term view and a careful balance between all stakeholders.
We have the best-in class operating platform to serve our customers in regulated markets across the entire residential real estate value chain.
Our experience and knowhow enable us to scale our business in attractive European markets.
Long-term owner and full-scale operator of Europe's largest listed multifamily housing portfolio
We have the scale and the skills as well as the innovative and financial strength to help managing the megatrends.
We develop solutions for the housing market and are a reliable partner for municipalities & communities in our neighborhoods.
We offer sustainable per- share earnings and value growth with superior downside risk protection to our investors.
We have the necessary access to capital markets to finance the required investments.
We are
part
of the solution
Sustainable
earnings und value growth
License to | Contribution to climate | Operating in | Our business conduct is | ||
S | residential markets | G | |||
operate | Eprotection and CO2 | brings with it a | built around trust, | ||
reduction | special responsibility | transparency & reliability | |||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 6 |
Scalable B-to-C Business Beyond the Bricks
Increasing Profitability via Scale and Efficiencies
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Our strategy is to own for generations and create scale effects and efficiencies (buy & hold), and
Portfolio size (eop, '000)
therefore different from a financial investor with
a limited investment horizon (buy & sell)
>8m | >2.5m | >0.7m | >0.6m | |
… | ||||
Invoices to | Inbound | Ancillary | Maintenance | |
expenses | & repair jobs | |||
process p.a. | calls p.a. | |||
bills p.a. | p.a. | |||
175
396 416
357 333347
203
Granular Operating Business
Unique scalable platform to efficiently manage a large residential real estate portfolio driven by industrialization, standardization and optimization with best-in-class service
Digitalization still in early stage with cost-reduction potential in the medium- and long-term
Impact of scale to continue with acquisitions -
incremental Cost per unit (Germany) is around €250
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Proof of scalability1
73.6% | 75.0% | 76.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||
830 | 71.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
754 | 67.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
63.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
60.8% | 645 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
570 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
498 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
445 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
394 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |||||||||||||||||
EBITDA Operations margin Germany | Cost per unit Germany (€) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
1EBITDA Operations margin (Adj. EBITDA Rental + Adj. EBITDA Value-add - intragroup profits). 2019 margin includes positive impact from IFRS 16. Cost per unit is defined as (Rental Income - EBITDA Operations + Maintenance) / average no. of units.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 7 |
Long-term Track Record of Sustainable Growth
Equity Story & Q1 Performance UpdateBusiness OverviewQ1 2020 ResultsAdditional Information
FFO (€/share)1 | Dividend (€/share)2 | |||
2.25 | 1.57 | |||
2.06 | 1.44 | |||
1.90 | 1.32 | |||
1.63 | 1.12 | |||
1.30 | 0.94 | |||
0.95 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.74 | |
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Adj. NAV (€/share) | LTV and Interest Cover Ratio | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
51.9 | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
49.7% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
44.9 | 49.0% | 47.3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
38.5 | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
30.8 | 3.0 | 42.8% | 43.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2.7 | 41.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
24.2 | 39.8% | target | |||||||||||||||||||||||
21.7 | 22.7 | 2.2 | range | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
LTV (%) | Interest Cover Ratio | ||||||||||||
1Based on prevailing internal management KPI, which was FFO1 from 2013-2018 and Group FFO in 2019. 22019 DPS to be proposed to the AGM on June 30, 2020.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 8 |
Highlights Q1 - Good Start into 2020
Equity Story & Q1 Performance UpdateBusiness OverviewQ1 2020 ResultsAdditional Information
Y-o-yincrease acrossall four segments. | ||
Performance | Adj. EBITDA Total €456.1m(+6.1%). | |
Group FFO €335.5m(+10.5%). | ||
Adj. NAV per share €52.23. | ||
NAV & | Next portfolio valuation planned as perJune 30.With the exception of Berlin, where prices | |
Valuation | have remained flat, current indications forall other markets suggest a fair value growth |
broadly in line with H1 last year.
Capital | LTV 43.0%in the middle of our target range (40%-45%). | ||
Structure | Net debt/EBITDA multiple 11.8x. | ||
AGM | AGMto take place in a virtual format on June 30, 2020. | ||
and | |||
Unchanged €1.57dividend per share (+9% y-o-y) to be proposed. | |||
Dividend | |||
Guidance | Pre-COVID-19 guidance unchanged for | ||
EBITDA Totalof €1,875m - €1,925m (+6.5% - 9.4% y-o-y) | |||
2020 | |||
Group FFOof €1,275m - €1,325m (+4.6% - 8.7% y-o-y) | |||
1Estimate based on the assumption that we will continue to observe no material COVID-19 impact by June 30.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 9 |
Stakeholder Responsibility under COVID-19 and beyond
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
As a large residential property owner with responsibility for 10,000 employees and around one million people in our apartments we consider the following areas as crucial, and we will continue to leverage our best-in-class operating platform for the benefit of all stakeholders.
Flexible working hours and home office solutions wherever possible.
Individual departments / operational units work in separate teams to avoid wide-spread
Employeescontagion in case of COVID-19 infection.
Protective gear for employees in the field and compliance with recommendations from Robert Koch-Institut.
Customer service has maintained high service level and availability.
Infrastructure | Repair & maintenance capacity fully intact. |
Letting activities ongoing on-site and virtually.
Pragmatic solutions for tenants in financial distress.
Customers | Moratorium on rent increases in COVID-19 environment. |
Masks will be available for our customers free of charge (via our app). | |
Support and assistance especially for our senior citizens (e.g. groceries shopping).
Major investments and stimulus from the public and private sector will be required in the post | ||
Post | COVID-19 era, and the focus must be on addressing the relevant challenges. | |
COVID-19 | Solutions to the long-term megatrends urbanization, energy efficiency and demographic | |
Era | change will be even more important after COVID-19 has faded. | |
We continue to do our share both as a partner and a leader in innovation and research. | ||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 10 |
COVID-19 Business Update
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
The scale and depth of our operations put us at a relative advantage over other residential property owners and enable us to continue our operations with very little interference from COVID-19.
Very robust with no material signs of weakness. | |||
Fluctuation rate going down; strong demand for rental apartments unbroken with more than | |||
5,000 inquiries per day; increasing number of virtual apartment viewings. | |||
Rental and | So far, ca. 1% of tenants in Germany have contacted us due to COVID-19 related hardship | ||
and we have agreed on individual and pragmatic solutions. No material financial impact. | |||
Value-add | |||
Rent collection continues with very low default ratios and in line with previous months. | |||
Customer service and infrastructure fully intact and running smoothly. | |||
Modernization investments ongoing but new larger projects largely put on ice for now, which | |||
will have a small impact on the value-add contribution from our own craftsmen organization. | |||
Recurring | Small impact on Adj. EBITDA contribution. | ||
Overall demand for condo apartments remains strong. | |||
Sales | |||
Largely digital back-office processes allow continued execution of sales. | |||
Construction activities ongoing but delay in some projects is expected to lead to some
Developmentcompletions getting pushed into 2021. Small impact on Adj. EBITDA contribution.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 11 |
2020 Guidance Confirmed for Adj. EBITDA Total and Group FFO
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Organic rent growth guidance slightly reduced by 20bps due toCOVID-19as a result of lower
fluctuation and delayed completion of some investment projects.
All other elements of our guidance remain unchanged.
2019 | 2020 Initial Guidance | 2020 Guidance Update | |
before COVID-19 | |||
Actuals | |||
(Nov. 2019) | (from May 2020) | ||
Organic rent growth1(eop) | 3.9% | ~3.5 - 4.0% | ~3.3 - 3.8% |
Rental Income | €2,074.9m | €~2.3bn | €~2.3bn |
Recurring Sales (# of units) | 2,607 | ~2,500 | ~2,500 |
FV step-up Recurring Sales | 41.3% | ~30% | ~30% |
Adj. EBITDA Total (€m) | 1,760.1 | 1,875 - 1,925 | 1,875 - 1,925 |
Group FFO (€m) | 1,218.6 | 1,275 - 1,325 | 1,275 - 1,325 |
Dividend (€/share) | 1.572 | 70% | 70% |
of Group FFO per share | of Group FFO per share | ||
Investments (€m) | 1,489.5 | 1,300 - 1,600 | 1,300 - 1,600 |
1If the one-off reduction of rents in Berlin to 120% of the rent ceiling is implemented in November, as currently planned, we expect to come out at the lower end of the range; similarly, if it is not implemented we expect to come out at the higher end of the range. 2To be proposed to the AGM on June 30, 2020.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 12 |
Wrap-up
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Vonovia is Europe's leading owner and full-scale operator with proven track record of scale and efficiencies in regulated residential real estate markets.
Granular B-to-C business with high degree of stability. Business model is resilient, predictable and provides downside protection.
Our start into 2020 was uneventful, as expected. We remain confident in our ability to deliver on our 2020 guidance and beyond, as our business is proving very robust and only marginally impacted by COVID-19.
Our relevance as a large employer and residential property owner is magnified in the current COVID-19 environment, and we live up to our responsibility to all stakeholders.
While COVID-19 is rightfully at the center of attention, the housing sector must not lose sight of the megatrends urbanization, energy efficiency and demographic change. Vonovia will make sure to maintain its leading role.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 13 |
Agenda
Equity Story | Business | Q1 2020 | Additional | ||||
& | Overview | Results | Information | ||||
Q1 2020 | |||||||
Performance | |||||||
Update | |||||||
pages 2-13 | pages 14-28 | pages 29-41 | pages 42-57 | ||||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 14 |
Scalable B-to-C Business Beyond the Bricks
Business Segments across Entire Life Cycle of the Assets
Equity Story & Q1 Performance UpdateBusiness OverviewQ1 2020 ResultsAdditional Information
Rental | Value-add | Development | Recurring Sales | |||
Ancillary service | Construction of | |||||
Efficient | apartments for | Disposal of | ||||
business | ||||||
management of | (i) own portfolio | individual apartments | ||||
for internal savings | ||||||
own portfolio | (ii) disposal to third | to retail buyers | ||||
and external income | ||||||
parties | ||||||
Average duration of our | Leveraging long-term | Vonovia is one of the |
rental contracts is 13 | customer relations to | largest builders of new |
years | generate additional cash | homes in Germany |
flows from internal | ||
No cluster risk because of | savings and external | Size, efficiencies and |
B-to-C business | income | innovation lead to building |
granularity | costs below fair market | |
Customer benefit through | values | |
High degree of insourcing | better service and/or | |
and standardization along | lower cost | |
our value chain |
Steady sales volume of ca. 2k apartments p.a.
Sales prices of 20-30% above fair market value capture the spread between book value and retail value
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 15 |
Scalable B-to-C Business Beyond the Bricks
Full-scale Operating Platform Enables Insourcing Strategy
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Residential real estate is a granular operating business. Vonovia has built a scalable platform to efficiently manage large portfolios and to provide the full range of services largely in-house.
Property Management
~1,500
Lettings agents & caretakers
Face to the customer and eyes and ears on the ground in our local markets
Technical Service
~5,000
Craftsmen
Wholly owned craftsmen subsidiary ("VTS") for large share of maintenance and modernization plus pooling of entire purchasing power
Residential EnvironmentService Center
~800 | ~1,000 |
Landscape gardeners | Service Agents |
Maintenance of gray and green areas and snow/ice | Centralized property management including inbound calls |
removal in the winter | and e-mails, ancillary cost billing, contract management, |
maintenance dispatch and rent growth management |
Best-in-class | Fully SAP | High degree of | Efficient process | Superior cost | ||||||
service levels | based | standardization | management | control | ||||||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 16 |
Scalable B-to-C Business Beyond the Bricks
Leveraging the B-to-C Nature of Our Business
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Value-add: lower cost & higher income
Evolution of Value-add segment (Adj. EBITDA, €m)
Savings from | Additional |
insourcing of services | revenues from |
to ensure maximum | walking back the |
process management | value chain and |
and cost control | offering services at |
market prices but on |
10.5
146.3
121.2
102.1
57.0
37.6
23.6
a lower cost basis |
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E |
due to scale and | EBITDA contribution from different Value-add initiatives |
efficiencies
Customer benefit is in lower cost
and/or better service quality
Craftsmen cost savings (VTS)
Multimedia
Residential environment
Smart metering
Energy
Other (e.g. 3rd party management, insurance, security packages, e-mobility)
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 17 |
Scalable B-to-C Business Beyond the Bricks
Opportunistic Increase of Scalability via Mergers & Acquisitions
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information | |||
Portfolio evolution by number of apartments ('000) | Major transactions since IPO | |||||
3 | 415 | 04/2014 | |||
~11k units | |||||
180 | 316 | 10/2014 | |||
~30k units | |||||
84 | 03/2015 | ||||
~145k units | |||||
IPO | Sales | Acq. | New | Q1 2020 | 07/2015 |
construction | |||||
~19k units |
Acquisition criteria
Strategic Rationale | Financial Discipline | 01/2017 |
~23k units | ||
Long-term view of the | At least neutral to | |
investment grade | ||
portfolio with a focus | 03/2018 | |
rating | ||
on urban growth | ||
(assuming 50% equity/ | ~48k units | |
regions | ||
50% debt financing) | ||
Earnings Accretion | Value Accretion | 06/2018 |
~14k units | ||
Accretive to EBITDA | Adj. NAV/share or | |
Rental yield | similar1 | 12/2019 |
~21k units
First sizeable portfolio
acquisition
First sizeable corporate
acquisition
Mixed cash/stock public
takeover
Sizeable all equity financed
portfolio acquisition
Public takeover and first
acquisition outside Germany
Public takeover and acquisition
of critical mass in Austria
Public takeover and acquisition
of "nucleus" in Sweden
Acquisition of critical mass in
Sweden
1EPRA has published new Best Practice Recommendations to replace EPRA NAV with a revised but broadly similar metric
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 18 |
Scalable B-to-C Business Beyond the Bricks
Implementation of Vonovia Business Model in Comparable Markets
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Vonovia has developed an operating platformand a unique business model for the efficient managementof large residential portfolios in regulated environments.
We are convinced that this business model can be implemented outside of Germanyin comparable markets: large urban rental markets with a supply- demand imbalance and a regulated rental environment.
No specific target rate or ratios in terms of German vs. non-German exposure disciplined but highly opportunistic approach.
M&A activities in European target markets are subject to the same criteriaas in Germany.
15 Urban
Growth
Regions
Randstad
(greater
Amsterdam)
Île-de-France (greater Paris)
Stockholm
Gothenburg
Malmö
Mainly
Vienna
Germany | Austria | Sweden | France | Netherlands | ||||||
• | Primary home market and | • | Run scalable operating | • | Prove that Vonovia | • | Largest long-term | • | Continue market | |
expected to remain dominant in | business (Austrian SAP | business model works | potential | research | ||||||
the foreseeable future. | client successfully | outside Germany | • | Active market | • | Highly opportunistic | ||||
• | Home of Vonovia business | implemented) | • | Market consolidation on | engagement and | approach in case of | ||||
model that we are seeking to | • | "Austrian model" along | the basis of Victoria | networking to safeguard | acquisition opportunity | |||||
repeat in similar markets | build-hold-sell value | Park and Hembla | pole position for when | |||||||
chain | combination | opportunity arises | ||||||||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 19 |
Megatrends - Challenge & Opportunity
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
% of population living in cities
87%
84%
77% | 79% | |
Urbanization | Germany | W. Europe |
2015 | 2050E | |
% of modernized housing units
~4% | |||
~3% | |||
~1% | |||
Energy | Avg. Germany | Required run | Vonovia 2019 |
efficiency | |||
rate Germany | |||
% of population above/below 65 years
21% | 31% | 20% | 29% | |||||
79% | 69% | 80% | 71% | |||||
Demographic | ||||||||
2015 Germany2050E | 2015 W. Europe2050E | |||||||
change | 65 or older | younger than 65 | ||||||
The dominant megatrends represent a challenge and
an opportunity at the same time
The key to solving the residential markets' problems lies in finding workable solutionsfor these megatrends in the
interest ofall stakeholders
Theinvestments required to meet these challengesare enormous. The German Housing Association GdW estimates the investment volume required until 2030 to be around €800bn
Large residential players with sustainable business models and access to capital market fundingplay an important role in finding and implementing solutions
Sources: United Nations, Prognos AG
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 20 |
Long-term Support from Megatrends
Focus on Urban Areas with Long-term Supply/Demand Imbalance
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Portfolio evolution
Vonovia
~70knon-core apartments sold since IPO in 2013
~99% of current portfolio located in urban growth
regionsfor long-term ownership and subject to structural supply-demand imbalance
Aggregate total value growth 2017-2019 (%)1
40.8%
Vonovia Portfolio March 2015 | Vonovia Strategic Portfolio |
347k apartments in 818 locations | 350k apartments in ~400 locations |
6.0%
Strategic Portfolio | Non-core locations |
Marketview of growing and shrinking regions2
The German Federal Office for Construction and Urban Development (BBSR) has analyzed all cities and counties in Germany on the basis of the average development in terms of population growth, net migration, working population (age 20-64), unemployment rate and trade tax revenue.
The results fully confirm our portfolio management
decisions
Germany (market) | Strategic Portfolio (Vonovia) |
Shrinking (above average) | Shrinking | No clear direction | Growing | Growing (above average) |
Vonovia location High-influx cities ("Schwarmstädte"). For more information: http://investoren.vonovia.de/websites/vonovia/English/4050/financial-reports-_-presentations.html1Simple addition of 2017-2019 valuation results excluding compound interest effects. 2Source: BBSR (https://gis.uba.de/maps/resources/apps/bbsr/index.html?lang=de)2
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 21 |
Long-term Support from Megatrends
Investments into Existing Portfolio and New Construction
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
New construction: Construction of apartments for our own portfolio through entirely new buildings or floor additions to existing buildings applying modular and conventional construction methods.
Upgrade Building: Energy efficient building modernization usually including new facades, roofs, windows and heating systems.
Optimize Apartment: Primarily senior-friendly apartment renovation usually including new bathrooms, modern electrical installations and new flooring.
€m | Target | |||||||||
New construction | 1,300 | |||||||||
Upgrade Building | IRR of | - | ||||||||
Optimize Apartment | 9-10% | 1,439 | 1,600 | |||||||
1,139 | ||||||||||
472 | 779 | |||||||||
71 | 172 | 356 | ||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E |
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 22 |
Long-term Support from Megatrends
More than €500m Neighborhood Development Investments
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
While each project is different depending on specific local requirements and opportunities, neighborhood development projects usually include energy efficient modernization, construction of new apartments, apartment modernization and general upgrade of the neighborhood environment.
Bielefeld (2017)
Sennestadt
302 apartments
3 years construction time €14m investment
Dortmund (2017) Westerfilde Nord + Süd 639 apartments
3 years construction time €23m investment
Essen (2016)
Eltingviertel
420 apartments
5 years construction time €27m investment
Aachen (2016)
Preuswald
397 apartments
3 years construction time €10m investment
Bochum (2019)
Weitmar
1,558 apartments
4 years construction time €81m investment
Duisburg (2019)
Hüttenheim
228 apartments
3 years construction time €27m investment
Kiel (2018) Gaarden (Förde)
682 apartments
5 years construction time €32m investment
Hamburg (2018)
Wilhelmsburg
1,451 apartments
4 years construction time €85m investment
Berlin (2017)
Lettekiez
919 apartments
3 years construction time
€36m investment
Berlin (2017)
Tegel- Ziekowstraße 1,470 apartments
6 years construction time €111m investment
Berlin (2016) Afrikanisches Viertel 422 apartments
5 years construction time €41m investment
Frankfurt (2017)
Knorrquartier
150 apartments
2 years construction time €14m investment
Kornwestheim (2019)
Südkorn
277 apartments
4 years construction time €34m investment
Note: Year refers to year of initial investment. Pie chart refers to estimated degree of project completion.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 23 |
Solid Capital Structure with Smooth Maturity Profile and Diverse Funding Mix
Equity Story & Q1 Performance UpdateBusiness OverviewQ1 2020 ResultsAdditional Information
KPI / criteria | Mar. 31, | Dec. 31, | Evolution of LTV and Interest Cover Ratio | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2020 | 2019 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Corporate rating (Scope) | A- | A- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Corporate rating (S&P) | BBB+ | BBB+ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
49.0% | 49.7% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LTV2 | 43.0% | 43.1% | 47.3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net debt/EBITDA multiple1 | 11.8x | 11.5x | 3.7 | 42.8% | 43.1% | 43.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ICR | 5.0x | 4.9x | 3.0 | 41.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39.8% | target | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fixed/hedged debt ratio2 | 96% | 96% | range | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Average cost of debt2 | 1.5% | 1.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Weighted average maturity (years)2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Unencumbered assets | 49% | 50% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Q1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Most recent bond issuances | Apr. 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LTV (%) | Interest Cover Ratio | 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
€500m, 10 years | 2.250% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
€500m, 4 years | 1.625% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diverse funding mix with no more than 13% of debt maturing annually3
€m
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 from 2033
1Adj. net debt annual average over Total EBITDA.2Excl. equity hybrid. 3Incl. April 2020 Dual Tranche Bond of €500m each.
9% | Corporate bond | ||
18% | Equity hybrid | ||
58% | Structured loans | ||
11% | Mortgage loans | ||
Subsidized modernization | |||
4% | |||
debt & EIB loans | |||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 24 |
Serving a Fundamental Need in a Highly Relevant Market
Main Focus Points of Our Sustainability and ESG Dimensions
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
ENVIRONMENTAL
-
Largest and most meaningful positive impact is through increasing
energy efficiency and CO2reduction of the >50,000 buildings in our portfolio - Ca. one million tCO2e emissions per year
- Committed to Germany's ambitious target of achieving a climate neutral building stock by 2050 energy efficient modernization of our portfolio at rate of >3% p.a.
- Researching innovative ways to reduce CO2 emissions and increase the use of renewable energy
SOCIAL
- Deeply rooted in the middle of society with products & services that impact the lives of more than one million people
- Homes not a product like any otherthey serve a basic need alongside food and oxygen
- As a partner in the local markets in which we operate we provide answers to the challenges of the housing sector
- Most important solution lies in the construction of new and affordable apartments; as one of Germany's largest homebuilders we live up to our responsibility
- Responsibility for ~10,000 employees from 78 countries
G•We bear responsibility for offering
OVERNANCE
our employees a working environment in which they are
•Business conduct is built around happy, heathy and able to
trust, transparency and reliability advance in line with their own
•Inexpeverythctationsng we do we play by the
•Vonovia academy
rules and are compliant with all
•Comprehensive health relevant laws, directives, social
management
- normsGenerousand agreementshome office regulation
and part-time models
•Continuous and open dialogue with
•Ausbildung
•allWeiterbildungstakeholders
•We will only be successful if our stakeholders feel that they can rely on us
As Europe's largest listed landlord we provide a home to around 1 million people from 170 nations. All of our
actions have more than just an economic dimension.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 25 |
Serving a Fundamental Need in a Highly Relevant Market
Social - We Are In the Middle of Society
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
CUSTOMERS
- Business philosophy above and beyond what is legally required
- Self-imposedobligation to limit ourselves to maximum rent increase of €2/sqm after invest
- Guarantee to customers 70+ years that rents will remain affordable irrespective of legal rent increase opportunities
- In-housecraftsmen organization to ensure swift response time to repair & maintenance needs
- Multilingual service center for customer enquiries with 24/7 emergency service and tenant app to access all relevant data and forstate-of-the-artcustomer-landlord communication
SOCIETY
- Availability and affordability of housing is one of key social questions of our time. The most effective answer to address this challenge is new construction. With more than 2,000 apartments per year we are part of the solution
- Several hundred million of investments in neighborhood development to make sure that people feel at home not only within their apartments but also within their local neighborhood
- Various foundations, donations and different initiatives (e.g. photo award) support our commitment to society
EMPLOYEES
•We bear responsibility for offering
•We bear responsibility for offering our employees a working
our employees a working environmentininwhichwhichtheytheyareare
happpy,healthyheathyandabletoto advance in line with their own
advance in line with their own expectations
expectations
•Vonovia academy
•OurComprehensiveVonovia academyhealthcontinuously offersmanagementrange of training and
•Generous home office regulation coaching opportunities
and part-time models
•ComprehensiveAusbildunghealth
•managementWeiterbildung
•Generous home office regulation and part-time models to enable employees to balance career and family
•Signatory of Diversity Charter and committed to appreciation, tolerance and respect
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 26 |
Corporate Governance
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
The duties and authorities of the three governing bodies derive from the SE Regulation, the German Stock Corporation Act and the Articles of Association. In addition, Vonovia is fully in compliancewith the German Corporate Governance Code.
In the two-tiergovernance system, the management and monitoring of the business are strictly separatedfrom each other.
Annual General Meeting (AGM)
•
•
Shareholders can exercise their voting rights.
Decision making includes the appropriation of profit, discharge of members of the SVB and MB, and capital authorization.
Two-tier Governance System
Supervisory Board (SVB)
- Appoints, supervises and advises MB
- Examines and adopts the annual financial statements
- Forms Supervisory Board Committees
- Fully independent
- Board profile with all required skills and experience
Jürgen | Prof. Dr. | Burkhard Ulrich | Vitus | Dr. Florian | Dr. Ute |
Fitschen | Edgar Ernst | Drescher | Eckert | Funck | Geipel-Faber |
(Chairman) |
Daniel | Hildegard | Prof. Dr. | Dr. Ariane | Clara-Christina | Christian |
Just | Müller | Klaus Rauscher | Reinhart | Streit | Ulbrich |
Management Board (MB)
- Jointly accountable for independently managing the business in the best interest of the company and its stakeholders
- Informs the SVB regularly and comprehensively
-
Develops the company's strategy, coordinates it with the
SVB and executes that strategy
CEO | CFO |
Rolf | Helene |
Buch | von Roeder |
CRO | CDO |
Arnd | Daniel |
Fittkau | Riedl |
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 27 |
Why Vonovia?
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Granular B-to-C business with high degree of stability. Business model is resilient, predictable and provides downside protection
Long-term owner and full-scale operator with proven track record of scale and efficiencies in regulated residential real estate markets
The megatrends urbanization, energy efficiency and demographic change provide structural support and long-term tailwind for the business
Uniquely positioned in Germany with ability and ambition to implement Vonovia business model in selected European metropolitan areas
Fully committed to long-term nature of the business and the importance of sustainability
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 28 |
Agenda
Equity Story | Business | Q1 2020 | Additional | ||||
& | Overview | Results | Information | ||||
Q1 2020 | |||||||
Performance | |||||||
Update | |||||||
pages 2-13 | pages 14-28 | pages 29-41 | pages 42-57 | ||||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 29 |
Good Start into the Year with Growth Across all Four Segments
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
6.1% Adj. EBITDA Total growth and 10.5% Group FFO growth as a result of a larger
portfolio and performance improvements.
€m (unless indicated otherwise)
Adj. EBITDA Rental
Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 |
381.1 357.4
Adj. EBITDA Total (€m)
+6%
Adj. EBITDA Value-add
Adj. EBITDA Recurring Sales
Adj. EBITDA Development
Adj. EBITDA Total
FFO interest expenses
Current income taxes FFO
37.2 35.8
26.4 26.3
11.4 10.4
456.1 | 429.9 | +6.1% |
-90.1 | -89.8 | |
-11.8 | -12.6 | |
456.1
429.9
Consolidation1
Group FFO
of which Vonovia shareholders
of which hybrid investors
of which non-controlling interests
Number of shares (eop)
Group FFO per share (eop NOSH)
Group FFO per share (avg. NOSH)
-18.7 | -23.9 |
335.5 303.6+10.5%
- 289.8
- 10.0
- 3.8
542.3 518.1
0.62 0.59+5.1%
0.62 0.59
415 | +5% |
394 |
Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 |
Development
Recurring Sales
Value-add
Rental
Residential units (`000)
1Consolidation in Q1 2020 (Q1 2019) comprised intragroup profits of €7.1m (€11.1m), the valuation result of development to hold of €4.3m (€5.3m), and IFRS 16 effects of €7.3m (€7.5m).
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 30 |
Rental Segment
Acquisitions and Organic Growth Drive Adj. EBITDA Rental
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Rental Segment (€m) | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Delta |
Rental income | 564.0 | 502.2 | +12.3% |
Maintenance expenses | -79.4 | -72.7 | +9.2% |
Operating expenses | -103.5 | -72.1 | +43.6% |
Adj. EBITDA Rental | 381.1 | 357.4 | +6.6% |
Rental income by geography
14%
5%
Germany
Austria
Sweden
81%
Rental income growth in Q1 2020 was driven by the acquisition of Hembla plus organic rental growth. The increase in operating expenses was mainly attributable to two Hembla-related reasons:
more all-inclusive rents in Sweden compared to Q1 2019; and
double cost structure between Victoria Park and Hembla (synergies not realized yet). EBITDA Operations margin (unadjusted)2for Victoria Park was 51% and for Hembla 37%.
EBITDA Operations margin Germany1
71.4% 73.6%75.0% | 76.5% 78.2% | |||||||||||||||||||
830 | ||||||||||||||||||||
754 | 67.7% | |||||||||||||||||||
60.8% 63.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||
645 | ||||||||||||||||||||
570 | ||||||||||||||||||||
498 | ||||||||||||||||||||
445 | ||||||||||||||||||||
394 | ||||||||||||||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Q1 2020 | |||||||||||||
EBITDA Operations margin Germany | Cost per unit Germany (€) | |||||||||||||||||||
1EBITDA Operations margin (Adj. EBITDA Rental + Adj. EBITDA Value-add - intragroup profits) / Rental Income. Margin 2019 and beyond includes positive impact from IFRS 16. Cost per unit is defined as (Rental Income
- EBITDA Operations + Maintenance) / average no. of units. 1EBITDA margins in Sweden not comparable to Germany because in Sweden rental income includes ancillary costs.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 31 |
Rental Segment
Operating KPIs Rental Segment
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Organic rent growth of 3.9% year-on-year
Vacancy rate stable and largely the result of investments.
Expensed maintenance on prior-year level; capitalized maintenance elevated as a result of increased volume of targeted larger-scale measures planned for 2020.
Organic rent growth (y-o-y; %)
3.9 | 4.0 | |||||||
0.2 | ||||||||
0.6 | ||||||||
2.6 | ||||||||
2.3 | ||||||||
1.0 | 1.2 | |||||||
Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | |||||||
Market | Modernization | New construction | ||||||
Vacancy rate (%) | Expensed and capitalized maintenance (€/sqm) | |||||||||||||
2.8 | 2.9 | |||||||||||||
4.6 | ||||||||||||||
1.6 | 3.9 | |||||||||||||
1.0 | ||||||||||||||
3.0 | 2.9 | |||||||||||||
Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | |||||||||||
Expensed maintenance | Capitalized maintenance | |||||||||||||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 32 |
Value-add
Segment
Continued Dynamic Growth in Adj. EBITDA Value-add
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Two types of value-add: (i) internal savingsmainly via craftsmen organization and (ii) additional revenuethrough external
income by offering services atmarket prices but on a lower cost basis due to efficiencies and size. Insourcing of services to ensuremaximum process management andcost control.
Expansion of core business to generate additional revenues by walking back the value chain and offering services that were previously provided by third parties (internalization of margin).
Cash flows from Adj. EBITDA Value-add are not included in the portfolio valuation, and as a consequence ignored in NAV.
Applying the impairment test discount rate1to the 2020E Adj. EBITDA Value-add suggests an additional value between ca. €5.5 and €6.5 per share(ca. 10-13%on top of Q1 2020 Adj. NAV).
Value-add Segment (€m) | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Delta | Value-add EBITDA mostly from internal savings2 | |
Income | 375.1 | 358.8 | +4.5% |
of which external | 77.6 | 80.2 | -3.2% |
of which internal | 297.5 | 278.6 | +6.8% |
Operating expenses Value-add | -337.9 | -323.0 | +4.6% |
Adj. EBITDA Value-add | 37.2 | 35.8 | +3.9% |
Craftsmen cost savings (VTS)
Multimedia
Residential environment
Smart metering
Energy
Other (e.g. 3rd party management, insurance)
1Pre-tax WACC in impairment test of 4.1% in 2019 (2018: 5.1%). 2Distribution based on 2020 Budget
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 33 |
Recurring Sales
Segment
Demand for Individual Condos Remains Strong
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Sales volume slightly below and gross proceeds in line with previous year.
Outside the Recurring Sales Segment we sold 287 non-core units in Q1 2020 with a fair value step-up of 36%, partly driven by the disposal of a commercial property.
Recurring sales by geography1
Austria
26%
Germany
74%
Recurring Sales Segment (€m) | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Delta |
Units sold | 760 | 809 | -6.1% |
Gross proceeds | 108.6 | 109.0 | -0.4% |
Fair value | -79.4 | -79.4 | - |
Adjusted result | 29.2 | 29.6 | -1.4% |
Fair-valuestep-up | 36.8% | 37.2% | -40bps |
Selling costs | -2.8 | -3.3 | -15.2% |
Adj. EBITDA Recurring Sales | 26.4 | 26.3 | +0.4% |
1Based on sales proceeds.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 34 |
Development
Segment
Adj. EBITDA Development +9.6%
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information | |
Development to sell (by income) | Development to hold (by fair value) |
Development segment in Q1 2020 influenced by fewer notarizations and completions.
Operating expenses in Q1 2020 positively
Austria
impacted by lower volume and the reversal of provisions (€3m) that are no longer required.
47%
Germany
53%
Germany
100%
Development Segment (€m) | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Delta |
Income from disposal of "to sell" properties | 45.4 | 59.4 | -23.6% |
Cost of Development to sell | -38.2 | -46.1 | -17.1% |
Gross profit Development to sell | 7.2 | 13.3 | -45.9% |
Fair value Development to hold | 20.2 | 47.3 | -57.3% |
Cost of Development to hold | -15.9 | -42.0 | -62.1% |
Gross profit Development to hold | 4.3 | 5.3 | -18.9% |
Operating expenses Development segment | -0.1 | -8.2 | -98.8% |
Adj. EBITDA Development | 11.4 | 10.4 | +9.6% |
Note: This segment includes the contribution of to-sell and to-hold constructions of new buildings. Not included is the construction of new apartments by adding floors to existing buildings, as this happens in the context of, and is accounted for, under modernization.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 35 |
Development
Segment
Vonovia's Contribution towards Reducing the Housing Shortage
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
New rental apartments for our own portfolio ("to hold")
122 units completed in Q1 2020 (including floor additions). Total pipeline of ca. 41,000 units, of which more than 70% in Germany and the remainder in Austria and Sweden.
Average apartment size between 60-70 sqm and broadly in line with overall portfolio average.
The development to-hold investment volume is part of the overall investment program.
New apartments for retail disposal ("to sell")
No units completed in Q1 2020.
Total pipeline volume of ca. €3bn (ca. 8,500 apartments), of which ca. 70% in Germany and ca. 30% in Austria.
Investment capital for Development to sell is not part of investment program.
Average apartment size between 70-80 sqm.
Average investment volume of ~€4.5k per sqm.
Expected gross margin between 20-25% on average.
Pipeline with ca. 41,000 apartments
7%
8%
Under construction
Short-term pipeline
Longer-term pipeline
85%
2020 target: ~1,300 completions
Pipeline with ca. 8,500 apartments
18% | Under construction | |||
Short-term pipeline | ||||
12% | ||||
70% | Longer-term pipeline | |||
2020 target: >300 completions
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 36 |
Adj. NAV Growth of +0.6%
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
No portfolio valuation in Q1.
Next portfolio valuationplanned as per June 30(ca. 2/3 of portfolio via the 26 largest/most dynamic German cities plus Sweden plus Vienna).
With the exception of Berlin, where prices have remained flat, current indications for all other markets suggest a fair value growth broadly in line with H1 last year(H1 2019l-f-l was 8.4% for portfolio revalued in Germany, 3.4% for Sweden and 3.8% for Vienna)
This estimate is based on the assumptionthat we will continue to observe no materialCOVID-19impact
by June 30.
€m
(unless indicated otherwise)
Equity attributable to Vonovia's shareholders Deferred taxes on investment properties
Fair value of derivative financial instruments1
Deferred taxes on derivative financial instruments
EPRA NAV
Goodwill
Adj. NAV
EPRA NAV €/share
Adj. NAV €/share
Number of shares (eop)
Mar. 31, 2020 Dec. 31, 2019
19,376.8 | 19,308.3 | |
10,329.5 | 10,288.9 | |
76.5 | 79.8 | |
-21.8 | -22.4 | |
29,761.0 | 29,654.6 | |
-1,440.2 | -1,492.7 | |
28,320.8 | 28,161.9 | +0.6% |
54.88 54.69
52.23 | 51.93 | +0.6% |
542.3542.3
1Adjusted for effects from cross currency swaps.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 37 |
LTV well within Target Range
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Against the background of thestable cash flows and thestrong long-term fundamentals in our
portfolio locations, largely driven by a structural supply/demand imbalance, we see continued upside
potential for our property values and do not see material long-term downside risks for our portfolio.
We remain committed to our LTV target range of 40-45%.
€m | Mar 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 |
(unless indicated otherwise) | ||
Non-derivative financial liabilities | 23,430.6 | 23,574.9 |
Foreign exchange rate effects | -44.0 | -37.8 |
Cash and cash equivalents | -428.8 | -500.7 |
Net debt | 22,957.8 | 23,036.4 |
Sales receivables/prepayments | -4.9 | 21.4 |
Adj. net debt | 22,952.9 | 23,057.8 |
Fair value of real estate portfolio | 53,199.7 | 53,316.4 |
Shares in other real estate companies | 148.8 | 149.5 |
Adj. fair value of real estate portfolio | 53,348.5 | 53,465.9 |
LTV | . | 43.1% |
LTV (incl. perpetual hybrid) | 44.9% | 45.0% |
Net debt/EBITDA multiple1 | 11.8x | 11.5x |
1Adj. net debt quarterly average over Adj. EBITDA Total (LTM), adj. for IFRS 16 effect.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 38 |
Financial Situation Remains Comfortable
Equity Story & Q1 Performance UpdateBusiness OverviewQ1 2020 ResultsAdditional Information
Cash flow from operating business remains stable and is more than sufficient to cover all | |||
operating business expenses. | |||
Ample | Refinancing activities in April 2020: €1.0bn unsecured bonds at a weighted average | ||
Liquidity | coupon of 1.9%. | ||
€1bn Commercial Paper Program covered by an additional €1bn Revolving Credit Facility. | |||
No material refinancing requirements until 12/2020 (€750m bond). | |||
The unsecured bond market remains fully open even in the COVID-19 crisis for frequent | |||
Multiple | investment grade issuers like Vonovia. This was recently proven with our €1.0bn dual | ||
(Re-) | tranche issuance in early April 2020. | ||
financing | The secured financing market is also wide open with a focus on financings with moderate | ||
options | LTVs and solid sponsors like Vonovia (marginally lower rates but requires substantially | ||
more time for realization). | |||
Rating not | Our BBB+ (S&P) and A- (Scope) ratings are not effected by the uncertainties and | ||
impacted | turbulence caused by COVID-19. | ||
Refinancing | While refinancing conditions for unsecured debt are on average ca. 80bps above the levels | ||
conditions | in early 2020, they are still comparatively low in a historical context. Furthermore it | ||
still | appears that financing conditions have already begun improving again. | ||
comparatively | The high portion of unencumbered assets in our portfolio enables us to execute on our | ||
low | diversified funding strategy. | ||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 39 |
Large Headroom on All Bond Covenants
Equity Story & Q1 Performance UpdateBusiness OverviewQ1 2020 ResultsAdditional Information
Covenant | Required level | Current level |
(March 31, 2020) | ||
LTV | <60% | 42% | |
(Total debt / total assets) | |||
Secured LTV | <45% | 15% | |
(Secured debt / total assets) | |||
Bonds | ICR | >1.8x | 5.0x |
(LTM EBITDA / LTM interest expense) | |||
Unencumbered assets | >125% | 196% | |
(Unencumbered assets / unsecured debt) | |||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 40 |
ESG Update
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
While dealing with COVID-19 implications is rightfully receiving most of the attention also in the
residential sector, managing the megatrendsurbanization, energy efficiency and demographic
change remains akey focus for Vonovia.
We are not relenting in our efforts to work on solutions and continue to make good progress on
our sustainability efforts. We have recently appointed a new Sustainability Director who reports directly to the CEO. Our main areas of focus and achievements include
- further developing the ESG strategy andprioritizing action items(roadmap);
- developing astep planin compliance with Paris Climate Accord and for achieving CO2 neutrality by 2050;
- finalizing the 2019Sustainability Report(publication end of May);
- participating inESG rankings(focus on GRESB, CDP, Sustainalytics, RobecoSam, MSCI);
- continuinginnovative researchtowards energy efficiency;
- ESG targetsimplemented as part of CEO's and CFO's variable compensation.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 41 |
Agenda
Equity Story | Business | Q1 2020 | Additional | ||||
& | Overview | Results | Information | ||||
Q1 2020 | |||||||
Performance | |||||||
Update | |||||||
pages 2-13 | pages 14-28 | pages 29-41 | pages 42-57 | ||||
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 42 |
Portfolio Cluster
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
55% of German portfolio earmarked for
investment strategy, safeguarding long-term sustainability of our Optimize Apartment and Upgrade
Building investment strategy
287 non-core units sold in Q1 2020 with afair value step-up of ca. 36%, partly driven by the
disposal of a commercial property
Sweden 10%
Austria 5%
Non-core 1%
Recurring
Sales 7%
Invest 55%
Operate 22%
Mar 31, 2020 | Fair value1 | Residential | In-place rent | ||
(€bn) | % of total | (€/sqm) | units | (€/sqm/month) | |
Operate | 11,059 | 22% | 1,909 | 85,251 | 7.23 |
Invest | 28,040 | 55% | 1,898 | 238,196 | 6.68 |
Strategic | 39,099 | 76% | 1,901 | 323,447 | 6.83 |
Recurring Sales | 3,826 | 7% | 2,030 | 27,589 | 6.94 |
Non-core | 477 | 1% | 1,448 | 3,888 | 6.42 |
Vonovia Germany | 43,402 | 84% | 1,905 | 354,924 | 6.83 |
Vonovia Sweden | 5,328 | 10% | 1,794 | 38,089 | 9.20 |
Vonovia Austria | 2,634 | 5% | 1,453 | 22,310 | 4.65 |
Vonovia Total | 51,364 | 100% | 1,864 | 415,323 | 6.94 |
Note: In-place rents in Austria and Sweden are not fully comparable to Germany, as Sweden includes ancillary costs and Austria includes maintenance and property improvement contributions from tenants. The table above shows the rental level unadjusted to the German definition. 1Fair value of the developed land excluding €2,157.2m, of which €573.3m for undeveloped land and inheritable building rights granted, €433.3m for assets under construction, €504.2m for development, €321.0m IFRS 16 effect and €315.4m for other.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 43 |
Regional Cluster
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Regional Market
Fair value1 | In-place rent | Market rent | Average rent | |||||||||||
Purchase | ||||||||||||||
Residential | Organic rent | Multiple | increase | growth (LTM, | ||||||||||
Residential | Vacancy | Total | Residential | power index | ||||||||||
(€m) | (€/sqm) | (€/sqm/ | growth | (in-place | forecast | %) from | ||||||||
units | (%) | (p.a., €m) | (p.a., €m) | (market | ||||||||||
month) | (LTM, %) | rent) | Valuation (% | Optimize | ||||||||||
data)2 | ||||||||||||||
p.a.) | Apartment |
Berlin
Rhine Main Area (Frankfurt,
Darmstadt, Wiesbaden)
Southern Ruhr Area (Dortmund,
Essen, Bochum)
Rhineland (Cologne, Düsseldorf,
Bonn)
Dresden
Hamburg
Munich
Stuttgart
Kiel
Hanover
Northern Ruhr Area (Duisburg,
Gelsenkirchen)
Bremen
Leipzig
Westphalia (Münster, Osnabrück)
Freiburg
Other Strategic Locations
Total Strategic Locations
Non-Strategic Locations
Total Germany
7,478 | 2,685 | 42,271 | 1.4 | 230 | 218 | 6.88 | 3.5 | 32.5 | 81.3 | 1.8 | 47.3 |
4,434 | 2,491 | 27,428 | 1.7 | 179 | 173 | 8.37 | 3.7 | 24.8 | 105.9 | 1.8 | 29.7 |
3,881 | 1,432 | 43,491 | 3.4 | 198 | 193 | 6.25 | 5.4 | 19.6 | 89.1 | 1.5 | 29.0 |
3,842 | 1,980 | 28,508 | 2.4 | 169 | 161 | 7.30 | 3.0 | 22.7 | 100.8 | 1.7 | 27.8 |
3,606 | 1,572 | 38,519 | 3.6 | 168 | 159 | 6.26 | 3.7 | 21.4 | 82.6 | 1.7 | 23.1 |
2,767 | 2,158 | 19,758 | 1.9 | 111 | 107 | 7.25 | 4.0 | 24.9 | 98.9 | 1.6 | 37.2 |
2,285 | 3,500 | 9,665 | 1.4 | 66 | 62 | 8.29 | 2.9 | 34.5 | 123.7 | 1.9 | 33.3 |
2,127 | 2,393 | 13,753 | 1.7 | 86 | 82 | 8.06 | 3.4 | 24.9 | 105.7 | 1.8 | 32.4 |
2,109 | 1,528 | 23,220 | 2.4 | 105 | 101 | 6.43 | 3.9 | 20.0 | 74.8 | 1.7 | 31.8 |
1,881 | 1,798 | 16,264 | 2.7 | 84 | 81 | 6.77 | 4.1 | 22.3 | 90.3 | 1.7 | 29.1 |
1,702 | 1,068 | 25,505 | 3.7 | 110 | 107 | 5.86 | 3.4 | 15.5 | 81.4 | 1.2 | 29.1 |
1,192 | 1,610 | 11,852 | 3.2 | 52 | 50 | 5.99 | 5.5 | 22.8 | 84.3 | 1.8 | 19.6 |
960 | 1,548 | 9,179 | 3.8 | 44 | 42 | 6.12 | 2.5 | 21.7 | 76.3 | 1.8 | 25.7 |
914 | 1,465 | 9,475 | 3.3 | 46 | 45 | 6.28 | 5.1 | 19.9 | 90.9 | 1.5 | 33.1 |
661 | 2,368 | 4,041 | 2.2 | 25 | 25 | 7.56 | 3.4 | 26.1 | 86.9 | 1.7 | 29.6 |
2,913 | 1,681 | 26,773 | 3.5 | 138 | 133 | 6.79 | 3.1 | 21.1 | 1.6 | 30.2 | |
42,754 | 1,913 | 349,702 | 2.7 | 1,813 | 1,738 | 6.84 | 3.8 | 23.6 | 1.7 | 30.9 | |
647 | 1,511 | 5,222 | 5.9 | 32 | 28 | 6.49 | 1.7 | 20.4 | 1.7 | 23.1 | |
43,402 | 1,905 | 354,924 | 2.7 | 1,845 | 1,765 | 6.83 | 3.7 | 23.5 | 1.7 | 30.8 |
Vonovia Sweden | 5,328 | 1,794 | 38,089 | 2.6 | 320 | 293 | 9.20 | 5.0 | 16.7 | 2.0 | - |
Vonovia Austria | 2,634 | 1,453 | 22,310 | 4.8 | 108 | 89 | 4.65 | 4.7 | 24.3 | 1.6 | - |
Total | 51,364 | 1,864 | 415,323 | 2.8 | 2,273 | 2,147 | 6.94 | 3.9 | 22.6 | 1.7 | n/a |
Note: In-place rents in Austria and Sweden are not fully comparable to Germany, as Sweden includes ancillary costs and Austria includes maintenance and property improvement contributions from tenants. The table above shows the rental level unadjusted to the German definition. 1Fair value of the developed land excluding €2,157.2m, of which €573.3m for undeveloped land and inheritable building rights granted, €443.3m for assets under construction, €504.2m for development, €321.0m IFRS 16 effect and €315.4m for other. 2Source: GfK (2020). Data refers to the specific cities indicated in the tables, weighted by the number of households where applicable.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 44 |
Substantial Rent Growth Pipeline
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Increasingly comprehensive investment projectsincl. neighborhood developments and new construction result in more extended periods between investment and full rent growth realization.2% of 2017 investment program rent growth, 41% of 2018 investment program rent growth and 62% of 2019 investment program rent growth for an aggregate incremental rental income of ~ €54m p.a.are still in the pipelineas investments are underway but not fully completed.
Year-by-year rent growth materialization from investment programs
1% | ||||||
3% | ||||||
39% | ||||||
38% | 41% | |||||
100%
61% 60% 56%
2% | |||
12% | 21% | 20% | 3 years later than investment kick-off |
37% | 25% | 2 years later than investment kick-off | |
37% |
21% | 1 year later than investment kick-off | |
50% | ||
40% | 33% | |
Same year as investment kick-off |
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2021+E |
Excluding Development to Hold. | Year of rent increase execution |
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 45 |
History of Vonovia
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Late 19th century
until
1980s
Social housing in not-for-profit regime
The commercialization
of Germany's housing
market came in the wake of the "Neue Heimat" scandal in the
~2000
until 2013
Private equity domination
Predominantly Anglo- Saxon private equity funds bought hundreds of thousands of apartments from public and corporate owners.
2013 | |
until | |
2018 | |
IPO | Beginning of |
in 2013 | |
consolidation in the | |
German residential | |
Professionalization | market |
of the business |
Proactive Portfolio management: €3bn invested in portfolio modernization.
Acquisition and integration of more than 290k apartments.
Disposal of 77k non-core apartments.
Scalability & industrialization: EBITDA Operations margin of 76% (+16 percentage points since IPO).
2018
onwards
Opportunistic expansion into selected European metropolitan areas
While Germany is expected to remain the dominant market in our portfolio also for the foreseeable future we want to build on our knowledge and track record by bringing our strategy and expertise to comparable residential markets outside of Germany.
1980s (bankruptcy of more than 250k union-owned apartments).
Push towards more professionalization but also short-term orientation.
We built the German leader with
the potential and ambition
to become
a unique European champion
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 46 |
Illustrative Overview of Investment Program Funding
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Rental Income
- Maintenance expenses
- Operating expenses
- EBITDAValue-add
- EBITDA Recurring Sales
- EBITDA Development
- Total EBITDA
- Interest expenses
- Current income taxes
- Consolidation/non-cashitems
- Group FFO
Comprehensive investment program to drive organic growth and portfolio improvements
Size of investment program is calibrated to remain within LTV target range
Funded with retained cash, proceeds from recurring sales plus (often subsidized) loans
€1.3bn - €1.6bn
~70% for dividend1 | ~30% | |
cash | scrip | retained earnings |
- Capitalized maintenance
- Hybrid coupon & minorities
- One-offs
- Earnings available for investment program
Incremental
debt
Sales
proceeds
Earnings
contribution
Including funding from KfW and
EIB
2,500 units * avg. fair value (~€138k) @30% est. gross margin
Investment Program
1Average historic cash/scrip ratio has been 55%/45% since inception in 2016
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 47 |
Acquisitions - Opportunistic but Disciplined
Equity Story & Q1 Performance UpdateBusiness OverviewQ1 2020 ResultsAdditional Information
Acquisition pipeline ('000 units)
340
2013: Dewag+ Vitus (~41 k)1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2015: Gagfah (~145 k) 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2015: Südewo (~19 k) 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2016: conwert (~23 k) 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
252 | 2017: Buwog (~48 k) 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2018: Victoria Park (~14 k) 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
240 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
224 | 2019: Hembla (~21 k) 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
219 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
206 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
175 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
158 | 163 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
140 | 136 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
121 | 114 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
105 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
87 | 83 | 83 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
71 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | 66 | 67 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | 52 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
44 | 37 | 37 | 41.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Examined | Analyzed in more detail | Due Diligence, partly ongoing | Bids | Signed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Q1 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1Acquisitions are shown for all categories in the year the acquisition process started.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 48 |
Acquisition Track Record
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information | ||||||
Larger acquisitions | Fair Value per sqm | ||||||||
Year | Deal | Residential units | Locations | @ Acquisition | Mar 31, 2020 | ∆ | |||
# | |||||||||
DEWAG | 11,300 | Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Frankfurt/Main | €1,344 | €2,499 | 86% | ||||
2014 | VITUS1 | 20,500 | Bremen, Kiel | €807 | €1,553 | 93% | |||
GAGFAH | 144,600 | Dresden, Berlin, Hamburg | €889 | €1,835 | 106% | ||||
2015 | FRANCONIA | 4,100 | Berlin, Dresden | €1,044 | €2,123 | 103% | |||
SÜDEWO | 19,400 | Stuttgart, Karlsruhe, Mannheim, Ulm | €1,380 | €2,205 | 60% | ||||
2016 | GRAINGER | 2,400 | Munich, Mannheim | €1,501 | €2,472 | 65% | |||
CONWERT (Germany & | 23,400 | Berlin, Leipzig, Potsdam, Vienna | €1,353 | €2,059 | 52% | ||||
Austria) | |||||||||
2017 | thereof Germany | 21,200 | Berlin, Leipzig, Potsdam | €1,218 | €1,962 | 61% | |||
thereof Austria | 2,200 | Vienna | €1,986 | €2,564 | 29% | ||||
PROIMMO | 1,000 | Hanover | €1,617 | €1,887 | 17% | ||||
BUWOG (Germany & | 48,300 | Berlin, Lübeck, Vienna, Villach | €1,244 | €1,514 | 22% | ||||
Austria) | |||||||||
thereof Germany | 27,000 | Berlin, Lübeck, Kiel | €1,330 | €1,742 | 31% | ||||
2018 | thereof Austria | 21,300 | Vienna, Villach, Graz | €1,157 | €1,291 | 12% | |||
VICTORIA PARK (Sweden) | 14,000 | Stockholm, Malmö, Gothenburg | SEK15,286 | SEK18,122 | 19% | ||||
AKELIUS (Sweden) | 2,300 | Stockholm, Gothenburg | SEK25,933 | SEK27,158 | 5% | ||||
2019 | HEMBLA (Sweden) | 21,400 | Stockholm | SEK20,157 | SEK20,158 | 0% | |||
Total | 312,700 | ||||||||
Note: Excluding smaller tactical acquisitions. 1Net of subportfolio sold right after the acquisition
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 49 |
Long-term Structural Support from Fundamental Residential Market Trends (Sweden)
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
The market fundamentals in Sweden are very comparable to Germany
High degree of similarities in terms of urbanization, rental regulation, supply/demand imbalance and gap between in-place values and replacement values
Large gap between in-place values and replacement costs2
Victoria Park3- fair value/sqm (SEK; total lettable area) vs. construction costs
Robust rent growth in regulated environments1
Rent growth in regulated marketsfollows a sustainable upward trajectory and is largely independent from GDP developments; rents in unregulated markets go up and downbroadly in line with the GDP development
Regulated (Sweden) | Unregulated (USA) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |||||
-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-4 | -4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-6 | GDP, quarterly development y-o-y | -6 | Rent growth; quarterly development y-o-y | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Structural supply/demand imbalance
Sweden's average annual residential completions of the last five years fall short of estimated required volumes
building
land
Factor
2.5x - 3.0x
100 | Completions (`000) |
90 | Est. required volume (`000) |
80 | |
70 | |
60 |
19,434 | |||||||||
14,319 | 15,793 | ||||||||
12,108 | |||||||||
10,375 | |||||||||
8,662 | |||||||||
6,580 | |||||||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Market costs | ||
for new |
constructions
50 |
40 |
30 |
20 |
10 |
0
1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
1Sources: REIS, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, OECD, Statistics Sweden. Note: Due to lack of q-o-q rent growth data for the US and Sweden, the annual rent growth for a year is assumed to also be the q-o-q rent growth of that year. 2Note: The land value refers to the share of total fair value allocated to land. Allocation between building and land in Sweden assumed to be similar to Germany. Sources: Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning, Statistics Sweden. 32019 includes portfolio acquired from Akelius.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 50 |
Residential Market Fundamentals (Germany)
Household Sizes and Ownership Structure
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Growing number of smaller households
While the overall population in Germany is expected to slightly decline, the number of households is forecast to grow until at least 2035 with a clear trend towards smaller households.
The household growth is driven by various demographic and social trends including divorce rates, employment mobility etc.
Fragmented ownership structure
Germany is the largest housing market in Europe with ~42m housing units, of which ~23m are rental units. Ownership structure is highly fragmented and majority of owners are non-professional landlords.
Listed sector represents ~4% of total rental market.
Distribution of household sizes (million)
41.4 | 43.2 | ||||||||||
40.1 | 1.1 | ||||||||||
1.4 | |||||||||||
3.3 | |||||||||||
1.4 | |||||||||||
3.8 | |||||||||||
4.0 | 4.4 | ||||||||||
5.2 | 4.9 | ||||||||||
15.4 | 5 or more persons | ||||||||||
14.0 | 4 persons | ||||||||||
13.6 | 3 persons | ||||||||||
2 persons | |||||||||||
15.8 | 17.3 | 19.0 | 1 person | ||||||||
2008 | 2018 | 2035E |
Ownership structure (million units)
Amateur landlords | 15.0 | |
Professional, not listed | 2.3 | |
Government owned | 2.3 | |
Cooperatives | 2.1 | |
Listed property companies | 0.9 | |
Churches and other | 0.6 | |
Sources: German Federal Statistics Office, GdW (German Association of Professional Homeowners). 2035E household numbers are based on trend scenario of the German Federal Statistics Office.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 51 |
Liquid Large-cap Stock
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Blackrock | |||
First day of trading | July 11, 2013 | ||
7.4%Norges | No. of shares outstanding | 542.3 million | |
6.6% | |||
FMR | Free float | 93.4% | |
3.6% | ISIN | DE000A1ML7J1 | |
DWS | |||
3.1% | Ticker symbol | VNA | |
APG | |||
Share class | Registered shares with no par value | ||
3.1% | |||
Main listing | Frankfurt Stock Exchange | ||
Other | Market segment | Regulated Market, Prime Standard | |
Major indices | DAX, Stoxx Europe 600, MSCI, GPR 250 World, | ||
76.2% | |||
FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Europe, GPTMS150 |
According to German law the lowest threshold for voting rights notifications is at 3%
Share price (rebased to 100)
Hembla | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Beginning | (21k) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stoxx 600 | Victoria | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
inclusion | Park (14k) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
expansion; | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
conwert | cooperation | 30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MSCI | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
350 | Südewo | (23k) | with CDC | Buwog | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
inclusion | Habitat | (48k) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(19k) | 25 bn) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
300 | DeWag & | M-DAX | Gagfah | DAX | (€ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
inclusion | (145k) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Vitus (32k) | inclusion | 20 | cap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
250 | +207% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
market | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
S-DAX | 15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
200 | +33% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
inclusion | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
+22% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
150 | 10 | Vonovia | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Mar-15May-15 | Jul-15Sep-15Nov-15Jan-16Mar-16May-16 | Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18 | Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Jul-13 |
Vonovia | DAX | EPRA Europe | Total market cap Vonovia (€bn; weighted avg.) | Index inclusion | Acquisition | |||
Source: Factset, company data; VNA performance is total shareholder return (share price plus dividends reinvested)
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 52 |
Bonds / Rating
Equity Story & Q1 Performance UpdateBusiness OverviewQ1 2020 ResultsAdditional Information
Corporate Investment grade rating | as of 2018-08-02 | |||||
Rating agency | Rating | Outlook | Last Update | |||
Scope | A- | Stable | 13 Dec 2019 | |||
Standard & Poor's | BBB+ | Stable | 06 Apr 2020 | |||
Bond ratings | as of 2018-08-02 | |||||
Name | Tenor & Coupon | ISIN | Amount | Issue price | Coupon | Final Maturity Date |
Bond 023B (EMTN) | 10 years 2.250% | DE000A28VQD2 | € 500m | 98.908% | 2.250% | 07 Apr 2030 |
Bond 023A (EMTN) | 4 years 1.625% | DE000A28VQC4 | € 500m | 99.831% | 1.625% | 07 Apr 2024 |
Bond 022C (EMTN) | 20 years 1.625% | DE000A2R8NE1 | € 500m | 98.105% | 1.625% | 07 Oct 2039 |
Bond 022B (EMTN) | 8 years 0.625% | DE000A2R8ND3 | € 500m | 98.941% | 0.625% | 07 Oct 2027 |
Bond 022A (EMTN) | 3.5 years 0.125% | DE000A2R8NC5 | € 500m | 99.882% | 0.125% | 06 Apr 2023 |
Bond 021B (EMTN) | 15 years 1.125% | DE000A2R7JE1 | € 500m | 99.822% | 1.125% | 14 Sep 2034 |
Bond 021A (EMTN) | 10 years 0.500% | DE000A2R7JD3 | € 500m | 98.965% | 0.500% | 14 Sep 2029 |
Bond 020 (EMTN) | 6.5 years 1.800% | DE000A2RWZZ6 | € 500m | 99.836% | 1.800% | 29 Jun 2025 |
Bond 019 (EMTN) | 5 years 0.875% | DE000A192ZH7 | € 500m | 99.437% | 0.875% | 03 Jul 2023 |
Bond 018D (EMTN) | 20 years 2.750% | DE000A19X8C0 | € 500m | 97.896% | 2.750% | 22 Mar 2038 |
Bond 018C (EMTN) | 12 years 2.125% | DE000A19X8B2 | € 500m | 98.967% | 2.125% | 22 Mar 2030 |
Bond 018B (EMTN) | 8 years 1.500% | DE000A19X8A4 | € 700m(1) | 101.119% | 1.500% | 22 Mar 2026 |
Bond 018A (EMTN) | 4.75 years 3M EURIBOR+0.450% | DE000A19X793 | € 600m | 100.000% | 0.793% hedged | 22 Dec 2022 |
Bond 017B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% | DE000A19UR79 | € 500m | 99.439% | 1.500% | 14 Jan 2028 |
Bond 017A (EMTN) | 6 years 0.750% | DE000A19UR61 | € 500m | 99.330% | 0.750% | 15 Jan 2024 |
Bond 015 (EMTN) | 8 years 1.125% | DE000A19NS93 | € 500m | 99.386% | 1.125% | 08 Sep 2025 |
Bond 014B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.750% | DE000A19B8E2 | € 500m | 99.266% | 1.750% | 25 Jan 2027 |
Bond 014A (EMTN) | 5 years 0.750% | DE000A19B8D4 | € 500m | 99.863% | 0.750% | 25 Jan 2022 |
Bond 013 (EMTN) | 8 years 1.250% | DE000A189ZX0 | € 1,000m | 99.037% | 1.250% | 06 Dec 2024 |
Bond 011B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% | DE000A182VT2 | € 500m | 99.165% | 1.5000% | 10 Jun 2026 |
Bond 011A (EMTN) | 6 years 0.875% | DE000A182VS4 | € 500m | 99.530% | 0.875% | 10 Jun 2022 |
Bond 010C (EMTN) | 8 years 2.250% | DE000A18V146 | € 1,000m | 99.085% | 2.2500% | 15 Dec 2023 |
Bond 010B (EMTN) | 5 years 1.625% | DE000A18V138 | € 752m(2) | 99.852% | 1.625% | 15 Dec 2020 |
Bond 009B (EMTN) | 10 years 1.500% | DE000A1ZY989 | € 500m | 98.455% | 1.5000% | 31 Mar 2025 |
Bond 008 (Hybrid) | perpetual 4% | XS1117300837 | € 1,000m | 100.000% | 4.000% | perpetual |
Bond 007 (EMTN) | 8 years 2.125% | DE000A1ZLUN1 | € 500m | 99.412% | 2.125% | 09 July 2022 |
Bond 005 (EMTN) | 8 years 3.625% | DE000A1HRVD5 | € 500m | 99.843% | 3.625% | 08 Oct 2021 |
Bond 004 (USD-Bond) | 10 years 5.000% | US25155FAB22 | USD 250m | 98.993% | 4.580%(3) | 02 Oct 2023 |
- Nominal mount incl. tap bond €200m in Feb 2020
- Nominal amount outstanding after Liability Management in Sep 2019
- EUR-equivalentCoupon
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 53 |
IR Contact & Financial Calendar
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Contact
Rene Hoffmann (Head of IR)
Primary contact for Sell side, Buy side +49 234 314 1629 rene.hoffmann@vonovia.de
Stefan Heinz
Primary contact for Sell side, Buy side +49 234 314 2384 stefan.heinz@vonovia.de
Oliver Larmann
Primary contact for private investors, AGM +49 234 314 1609 oliver.larmann@vonovia.de
General inquiries investorrelations@vonovia.de
App & Website
Financial Calendar 2020 | |
May 27 | Best of Europe One-on-One Conference, New York City (UBS)1- VIRTUAL |
June 04 | DB Access Berlin Conference, Berlin (Deutsche Bank) - VIRTUAL |
June 09 | European CEO Conference, Paris (Exane) - VIRTUAL |
June 10 | European Financials Conference, Rome (Goldman Sachs) - VIRTUAL |
June 17 | German & Austrian Property Day, Paris (KeplerCheuvreux)1- VIRTUAL |
June 18 | Europe & EEMEA Property Conference, London (Morgan Stanley) - VIRTUAL |
June 30 | Annual General Meeting -VIRTUAL |
Aug 5 | Interim results H1 2020 |
Aug 19 | Deutschlandkonferenz, Baden Baden (Bankhaus Lampe) - VIRTUAL |
Aug 20 | HSBC European Real Estate Conference, Frankfurt am Main (HSBC) |
Sept 03 | Corporate Conference 2020, Frankfurt (Commerzbank)1 |
Sept 21 | German Corporate Conference 2020, Munich (Berenberg & Goldman Sachs) |
Sep 24 | Investment Conference 2020, Munich (Baader)1 |
Oct 01 | Commerzbank Real Estate Forum, London (Commerzbank) |
Nov 4 | Interim results 9M 2020 |
https://investors.vonovia.de
1IR only
The most up-to-date financial calendar is always available online.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 54 |
Disclaimer
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
This presentation has been specifically prepared by Vonovia SE and/or its affiliates (together, "Vonovia") for internal use. Consequently, it may not be sufficient or appropriate for the purpose for which a third party might use it.
This presentation has been provided for information purposes only and is being circulated on a confidential basis. This presentation shall be used only in accordance with applicable law, e.g. regarding national and international insider dealing rules, and must not be distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part, nor may its contents be disclosed by the recipient to any other person. Receipt of this presentation constitutes an express agreement to be bound by such confidentiality and the other terms set out herein.
This presentation includes statements, estimates, opinions and projections with respect to anticipated future performance of Vonovia ("forward-looking statements") which reflect various assumptions concerning anticipated results taken from Vonovia's current business plan or from public sources which have not been independently verified or assessed by Vonovia and which may or may not prove to be correct. Any forward-looking statements reflect current expectations based on the current business plan and various other assumptions and involve significant risks and uncertainties and should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. Any forward-looking statements only speak as at the date the presentation is provided to the recipient. It is up to the recipient of this presentation to make its own assessment of the validity of any forward-looking statements and assumptions and no liability is accepted by Vonovia in respect of the achievement of such forward-looking statements and assumptions.
Vonovia accepts no liability whatsoever to the extent permitted by applicable law for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or penalty arising from any use of this presentation, its contents or preparation or otherwise in connection with it.
No representation or warranty (whether express or implied) is given in respect of any information in this presentation or that this presentation is suitable for the recipient's purposes. The delivery of this presentation does not imply that the information herein is correct as at any time subsequent to the date hereof.
Vonovia has no obligation whatsoever to update or revise any of the information, forward-looking statements or the conclusions contained herein or to reflect new events or circumstances or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent subsequent to the date hereof.
This presentation does not, and is not intended to, constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, subscribe for or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with or act as any inducement to enter into any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.
This presentation is neither an advertisement nor a prospectus and is made available on the express understanding that it does not contain all information that may be required to evaluate, and will not be used by the attendees/recipients in connection with, the purchase of or investment in any securities of the Company. This presentation is selective in nature and does not purport to contain all information that may be required to evaluate the Company and/or its securities. No reliance may or should be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness.
This presentation is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction.
Neither this presentation nor the information contained in it may be taken, transmitted or distributed directly or indirectly into or within the United States, its territories or possessions. This presentation is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. The securities of the Company have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States. Consequently, the securities of the Company may not be offered, sold, resold, transferred, delivered or distributed, directly or indirectly, into or within in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and in compliance with any applicable securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States unless registered under the Securities Act.
Tables and diagrams may include rounding effects.
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 55 |
For Your Notes
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 56 |
For Your Notes
Equity Story & Q1 Performance Update | Business Overview | Q1 2020 Results | Additional Information |
Investor Presentation - May 2020 | page 57 |
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Vonovia SE published this content on 20 May 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 27 May 2020 07:12:04 UTC