Ayvens shares are trading lower (-1.57% at 10.63 euros) following a note from Jefferies. Analysts maintained their Hold rating on the long-term leasing and fleet management specialist while lowering their price target from 11.50 to 10.80 euros.
The U.S. investment bank expects the company to post earnings growth of between 5% and 9% for the first quarter, despite sluggish fleet growth and a more pronounced normalization of used car sales results. Performance is expected to be driven by improved leasing margins and overhead synergies.
Jefferies notes that the conflict in the Middle East is unlikely to have any direct or indirect impact on the first three months of the year. Over the longer term, however, it could lead to a decline in demand for new cars and higher financing costs.
Regarding the latter, markets are now pricing in rate hikes by the European Central Bank in June and July. Sustained pressure could turn the current financing cost advantage into a headwind, depending on how quickly these costs are passed on to customers. In the longer term, rising fuel prices could support residual values for electric vehicles (EVs) by making their total cost of ownership more attractive.
Finally, justifying the lower price target, Jefferies highlights used vehicle results for the 2027/2028 fiscal years. Analysts anticipate a narrower (though not negative) margin profile as EVs represent a growing share of the returned fleet.
Ayvens specializes in long-term leasing and fleet management. ALD's activity is organized around 4 areas:
- long-term car leasing: rental of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, electric cars and 2-wheel vehicles to individuals and businesses;
- fleet management: assistance, maintenance, tire management, replacement, insurance, etc. ;
- medium-term car leasing: rental of vehicles for 1 to 12 months;
- sale of used vehicles.
At the end of 2025, the group had a fleet of 2,525,000 vehicles.
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