MGM China Holdings Limited has the License to Thrill

Macao is officially back in its bag. After a long stretch of quiet casino floors and empty streets, the city has rediscovered its swagger. Leading the charge is MGM China. By snagging record market share, the operator has proven that it knows how to stack chips as the game changes.

Macao has got its groove back.

After the pandemic years, the city is finally buzzing again. In 2025, Macao hit a record-breaking 40 million visitors. That’s a 14.7% increase from 2024 and officially beats the old 2019 record.

Mainland China brought in in 29 million arrivals, up 18.5%, as per the Macao Statistics and Census Service. When you look at the bigger picture from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism (MCT) and the National Immigration Administration (NIA), this makes sense. Mainland travel is exploding, with 112.71 million of 2025’s 167.92 million total outbound trips heading straight for Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan.

This also means that the casino floors are busy once again. The Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) rose about 9% to roughly HKD 239bn (USD 30.5bn) in 2025. That’s about 85% of the 2019 pre-pandemic peak, signaling that while the recovery is well advanced, there’s still room to grow.

MGM China, a leading developer, owner, and operator of integrated casino, hotel and entertainment resorts in Macau, has been soaking up the surge. The company rode this wave to a record-breaking year, with total revenue hitting HKD 34.8bn and market share peaking at 16.1% up from 15.8% y/y, according to their 2025 annual results.

This record-breaking revenue growth directly translated into a stronger bottom line.

Stacking the chips

MGM China's FY 25 total revenue touched a record HKD 34.8bn, up 10.8% y/y. This performance pushed their overall gaming market share to a record 16.1%, up from 15.8% in FY 24. Its operating profit also climbed 9% to HKD 6.7bn from FY 24’s HKD 6.1bn.

Most of the heavy lifting came from MGM COTAI, which saw revenue jump 17.2% to HKD 21.4bn, while MGM MACAU stayed steady at HKD 13.4bn. On the gaming floor, mass-market table wins rose 10.2% to HKD 31.5bn.

Slot revenue grew 3.3% y/y, reaching HKD 2.3bn in 2025 compared to HKD 2.2bn in 2024, all thanks to a massive surge in people playing—especially at MGM COTAI.

Property visitation surged 14% y/y to over 58,000 daily guests, peaking at a record 111,000 on New Year’s Eve. This drove an 11% y/y boost in daily GGR. Operational efficiency was high, with hotel occupancy reaching 94.5% during peak periods, surpassing the previous year's 94%.

Chasing the golden peak

Even though it's currently trading at HKD 11.60—well off its one-year peak of HKD 17.37—it still managed to pull off a solid 22.2% gain over the last year. With this, the market cap currently clocks at HKD 43.8bn (USD 5.6bn).

The company’s valuation metrics look tempting ATM. Its forward P/E based on potential FY 26 earnings stands at 8.7x, which is notably cheaper than its
3-year historical average of 10.8x.

Dividend yield is a major draw for investors, with yields projected to climb from 5.7% in FY 26 to a 6.9% yield by FY 28.

The pros seem to be optimistic too: 14 out of 17 analysts are opting for the "Buy" rating. Their average target price of HKD 16.7 suggests a massive 45.1% upside potential from current levels.

Growing pains

The biggest wildcard is government regulation. Authorities can terminate gaming concessions or change the rules at any time, which would mean game-over for operations.

Plus, China’s cooling economy and a disappearing VIP crowd suggest that the "revenge travel" spark is starting to fizzle out. Toss in some fierce competition from Thailand and the Philippines—who are busy leveling up their own casino scenes—and MGM China is suddenly playing in a much more crowded, expensive, and high-stakes sandbox than before.