MUMBAI, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to be rangebound this week and both the currency and government bond yields will take cues from the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of India's latest monetary policy meetings due later in the week.
The rupee ended at 83.0150 against the dollar on Friday, little changed week on week, even as the greenback logged its fifth straight weekly gain on a continued pullback in aggressive bets on early Fed rate cuts.
Indian debt and foreign exchange markets were shut on Monday for a local holiday.
The rupee is likely to trade with a “slightly positive bias,” this week and a continuation of debt-related dollar inflows could spur some appreciation, a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said.
Overseas investors have bought Indian bonds worth nearly $2 billion in February so far after making purchases worth $2.3 billion last month.
Traders expect the rupee to hover between 82.80 and 83.20 this week.
All factors broadly indicate that the bias is for a stronger rupee but the focus will be on how much appreciation the RBI allows, said Abhilash Koikarra, head of forex and rates at Nuvama Professional Clients Group.
The RBI intervenes in the foreign exchange market to prevent excessive volatility.
On investors' radar will be the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting due to release on Wednesday, which could provide cues on policymakers’ thinking about the trajectory of benchmark interest rates.
Investors are pricing in a 10.5% chance of a rate cut in March while the odds for May have also dropped to 35.5%, down from slightly over 60% a week earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, Indian government bond yields ended largely unchanged last week, despite a spike in U.S. peers, which broke key upside levels. The 10-year benchmark bond yield ended at 7.0968% on Friday.
The benchmark bond yield is expected to trade in the 7.05%-7.12% range this week, with a major focus on the move in Treasury yields and on minutes from the RBI's latest monetary policy meeting. The minutes are due on Thursday.
Earlier this month, the Indian central bank kept rates and stance unchanged without providing major dovish guidance and reiterated its commitment to meet the 4% medium-term inflation target on a sustainable basis.
"The last mile of disinflation is always the most challenging and that has to be kept in mind," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had said.
Traders will watch out for cues from the members' commentary after one of the external members voted for a change in stance as well as a cut in repo rate by 25 basis points.
"Bond yields are unlikely to see any major volatility in the near term, and the benchmark bond yield should not rise much above 7.12% level, said Vijay Sharma, a senior executive vice president at primary dealership PNB Gilts.
The demand-supply situation is set to turn more favourable as the central government's debt auction for the current financial year has ended, while it aims to gross borrow 14.13 trillion rupees ($170.18 billion) in the next financial year, sharply below market estimates. KEY EVENTS: ** Minutes of India's Monetary Policy Committee's February decision - Feb. 22, Thursday (5:00 p.m. IST) ** U.S. S&P Global, manufacturing, services and composite flash PMI - Feb. 22, Thursday (8:15 p.m. IST) ** U.S. initial weekly jobless claims week to Feb. 12-Feb. 22, Thursday (7:00 p.m. IST) ** U.S. Jan existing home sales - Feb. 22 Thursday (8:30 p.m. IST) ($1 = 83.0300 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Eileen Soreng)
