Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Eyes October Low (10,354) as Bearish Trend Gathers Pace

- GBP/USD Holds February High; Bank of England (BoE) Minutes in Focus

- USD/CAD Correction Stalls Ahead of 61.8 Fibonacci Retracement (1.0850)

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10412.68

10436.17

10403.23

-0.16

87.84%

USDOLLAR Daily

USDCAD-Carves-Bullish-Inside-Day-Harami--Higher-Low-in-Place_body_Picture_2.png, USD/CAD Carves Bullish Inside-Day (Harami)- Higher Low in Place?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • October Low (10,354) at Risk Following Break Below 78.6 retracement
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,406 (1.618 expansion)

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (APR 5)

12:30

320K

300K

Continuing Claims (MAR 29)

12:30

2835K

2776K

Import Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

12:30

0.2%

0.6%

Import Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

12:30

-0.6%

-0.6%

Monthly Budget Statement (MAR)

18:00

-$36.0B

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USDCAD-Carves-Bullish-Inside-Day-Harami--Higher-Low-in-Place_body_ScreenShot064.png, USD/CAD Carves Bullish Inside-Day (Harami)- Higher Low in Place?

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains at risk of giving back the rebound from back in October (10,354) as the bearish trend in price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in place. However, in light of the positive data coming out of the U.S. economy, it looks as though the 1.618 percent Fibonacci expansion around 10,406 will hold up as soft support ahead of the U. of Michigan Confidence survey, and a marked rebound in household sentiment may generate a larger rebound going into the weekend should the data raise the outlook for growth and inflation.

Read More:

Price & Time: USD/JPY Flirting With Danger

AUD/USD, USD/JPY Taking Advantage of US Dollar Weakness

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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