Second Quarter Results Conference Call
August 4, 2021
Safe Harbor Statement
Note to Our Investors
This presentation contains forward-lookingstatements. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that predicts, forecasts, indicates or implies future results, performance, liquidity levels or achievements, and may contain the words " believe,"" anticipate,"" expect,"" estimate,"" intend,"" project," "plan," "will be, "be, "will likely continue, "continue," "will likely result" or words or phrases of similar meaning. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause our business, strategy, or actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this presentation include statements about our strategic imperatives and priorities, and our focus thereon; our ability to capitalize on our geographic footprint to grow our national dealer and home center customer markets; our local entrepreneurial initiatives; our focus on reducing non-essential costs and our ability to, and the potential success of, investing in resources to support strategic sales growth; our market and business outlook, including the outlook for the residential housing construction markets, and trends in wood-based commodity prices; trends in deurbanization, housing inventory and prices; trends in residential repair and remodel activity; the influence of wood-based commodity price inflation on specialty product sales; our efforts to manage commodity price volatility and the potential success thereof; and the COVID-19 pandemic and our response thereto, including statements about the potential trajectory of the pandemic and its potential effects.
Forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on estimates and assumptions made by our management that, although believed by us to be reasonable, are inherently uncertain. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause our business, strategy, or actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed in greater detail in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We operate in a changing environment in which new risks can emerge from time to time. It is not possible for management to predict all of these risks, nor can it assess the extent to which any factor, or a combination of factors, may cause our business, strategy, or actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause these differences include, among other things: pricing and product cost variability; volumes of product sold; changes in the prices, supply, and/or demand for products that we distribute; the cyclical nature of the industry in which we operate; housing market conditions; the COVID-19 pandemic and other contagious illness outbreaks and their potential effects on our industry; effective inventory management relative to our sales volume or the prices of the products we produce; information technology security risks and business interruption risks; increases in petroleum prices; consolidation among competitors, suppliers, and customers; disintermediation risk; loss of products or key suppliers and manufacturers; our dependence on international suppliers and manufacturers for certain products; business disruptions; exposure to product liability and other claims and legal proceedings related to our business and the products we distribute; natural disasters, catastrophes, fire, or other unexpected events; successful implementation of our strategy; wage increases or work stoppages by our union employees; costs imposed by federal, state, local, and other regulations; compliance costs associated with federal, state, and local environmental protection laws; our level of indebtedness and our ability to incur additional debt to fund future needs; the risk that our cash flows and capital resources may be insufficient to service our existing or future indebtedness; the covenants of the instruments governing our indebtedness limiting the discretion of our management in operating our business; the fact that we lease many of our distribution centers, and we would still be obligated under these leases even if we close a leased distribution center; changes in our product mix; shareholder activism; potential acquisitions and the integration and completion of such acquisitions; the possibility that the value of our deferred tax assets could become impaired; changes in our expected annual effective tax rate could be volatile; the costs and liabilities related to our participation in multi-employer pension plans could increase; the possibility that we could be the subject of securities class action litigation due to stock price volatility; and changes in, or interpretation of, accounting principles. Given these risks and uncertainties, we caution you not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Non-GAAPFinancial Measures. BlueLinx reports its financial results in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States ("GAAP"). We also believe that presentation of certain non-GAAP measures, such as Adjusted EBITDA, net debt, the ratio of our total net debt to Adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow, may be useful to investors and may provide a more complete understanding of the factors and trends affecting the business than using reported GAAP results alone. Explanations of these non-GAAP measures are included in the accompanying Appendix to this presentation, and any non-GAAP measures used herein are reconciled herein or in the financial tables in the Appendix to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. We caution that non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to, but not as a substitute for, our reported GAAP results.
Immaterial Rounding Differences. Immaterial rounding adjustments and differences may exist between slides, press releases, and previously issued presentations.
This presentation and the associated remarks made during this conference call are integrally related and are intended to be presented and understood together.
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Executive Summary
Market Update and Second Quarter 2021 Performance
Market Conditions
- Single-familyresidential housing remains strong. Q2 single-familyhousing starts consistent with 1Q21 estimates; still well below prior cyclical peak. Favorable mortgage rates, low housing inventory, deurbanization and improved employment conditions continuing to support positive housing trends
- Commodity wood prices are volatile. Framing Lumber is currently ~70% off its peak in May 2021 and Structural Panel prices peaked in June at $1,705/MSF but have since decreased ~50%
- Builders' Confidence Index remains elevated. NAHB Builders' Confidence Index
60% above the 20-year average at 80 as of July 2021 - Remodeling activity continues to strengthen. LIRA Index and NAHB RMI both indicate continued R&R momentum with LIRA reaching record levels in Q2
- Economic measures trending positively. National unemployment rate down to 5.9% in June, a 60-basispoint improvement from December 2020. 30-yearfixed mortgage rates continue to stay at historically low levels
Note: All comparisons versus the prior-year period unless otherwise noted
Company Performance
- Record second quarter results. Record net income and Adjusted EBITDA, driven by specialty volume growth and margin expansion along with structural sales growth
- Significant leverage reduction while enhancing liquidity. Reduced net debt outstanding by $53 million year over year; Paid off Term Loan in full in 1Q21; Excess availability and cash increased to $276 million as of quarter end
- Broad-basedsales increase. Overall net sales $1.3 billion, higher by 87%
- Margin expansion across both product categories. Total gross margin +480 bps to 19.2%; Record specialty products gross margin +710 bps to 24.4%; Structural products gross margin +430 bps to 13.6%
- Disciplined cost controls. Maintaining cost discipline; SG&A normalizing post pandemic
- Improved profitability. Net income increased $107 million; earnings per diluted share of $11.61 vs. $0.71 in prior year period; Adjusted EBITDA of $166 million, up from $31 million
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Single-Family Housing Demand
Our business is correlated to single-family housing starts (SFHS)
Total U.S. Single Family Housing Starts | Total U.S. Monthly Single-Family Residential Home Supply |
Housing starts in thousands(1) | Months of inventory(2) | ||||||||||||||||||||
• 2021 SFHS forecasted at 1.2 million | 2,000 | Single-family residential home supply is 7% above the 20-year average | |||||||||||||||||||
1,800 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||
units were consistent with 1Q21 | |||||||||||||||||||||
1,600 | 2021 SFHS annual estimate ~33% below the | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
estimates; 12% above 50-year | prior cyclical peak achieved in 2005 | ||||||||||||||||||||
1,400 | |||||||||||||||||||||
10 | |||||||||||||||||||||
average. Further growth expected | 1,200 | ||||||||||||||||||||
8 | |||||||||||||||||||||
over next 3 years(1) | 1,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||
50-year average | |||||||||||||||||||||
800 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||
• Months of supply for new and | 600 | 4 | 20-year average | ||||||||||||||||||
400 | |||||||||||||||||||||
existing homes increased in 2Q21 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||
200 | |||||||||||||||||||||
due to higher home prices and | |||||||||||||||||||||
- | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
construction materials inflation | 2000 | 2001 2002 | 2003 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 | 2020 2021E 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 2003 2004 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 2009 2010 2011 | 2012 | 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
slowing recent sales |
• Builders' Confidence remains well | 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates | NAHB "Builders' Confidence" Market Index | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As of July 2021(3) | Composite index(4) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
above the 20-year average at 80 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18.0% | 16.6% | 100 | Builders' confidence reached a 35-yearhigh in Nov-20 and remains elevated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
16.0% | 90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
• Average U.S. home prices currently | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
14.0% | 80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
16% higher than a year ago; double- | 12.0% | 70 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
digit % growth for full year 2021(1) | 10.0% | 60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8.0% | 50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20-year average | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6.0% | 40-yearaverage | 40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
• Low mortgage rates continue to | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3.1% | 30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
support market demand | 2.0% | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1980 | 1982 | 1984 | 1986 | 1988 | 1990 | 1992 | 1994 | 1996 | 1998 | 2000 | 2002 | 2004 | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022P | 2024P | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2007 | 2017 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(1) Source: Historical data is U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC subject limitations and disclaimers - not for redistribution | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(2) Source: U.S. Census Bureau. The months' supply is the ratio of houses for sale to houses sold. This statistic provides an indication of the size of the for-sale inventory in relation to the number of houses currently being sold. The months' supply indicates how long the current for-sale inventory would |
last given the current sales rate if no additional new houses were built.
(3) Source: Historical data is Freddie Mac; Forecast: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC subject limitations and disclaimers - not for redistribution.
(4) Source: NAHB. The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.
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Residential Repair & Remodel Activity Remains Healthy
Elevated Repair & Remodel activity continues
Total Installed Base of U.S. Homes, Including Renter and | U.S. Private Residential Construction Put-In-Place (CPP) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
• | Annual U.S. Homes installed base | Owner-Occupied Homes | Dollars in millions(2) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Homes in millions(1) | $1,400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
forecast expects continued | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$1,200 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
increases through 2025; positive | 129 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$1,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
for both residential construction | 128 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
and repair and remodel end | 127 | $800 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
markets | 126 | $600 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
125 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$400 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
124 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
• CPP and remodeling data continue | $200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
123 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
to indicate continued elevating | 122 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
R&R activity; LIRA expected to | 121 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||||
120 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
increase and remain elevated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
119 | LIRA Remodeling Activity Index | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
through 1H 2022 | 118 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TTM Moving Total - Dollars in Billions(3) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
118 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
• | 116 | 117 | 117 | $450 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Strong existing home sales and | $400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
record home values are fueling | $350 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
home improvement activity | $300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$250 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$200 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$150 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$0 | 1Q22 (P) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(1) Source: HIRL Research; updated annually | 1Q00 | 1Q01 | 1Q02 | 1Q03 | 1Q04 | 1Q05 | 1Q06 | 1Q07 | 1Q08 | 1Q09 | 1Q10 | 1Q11 | 1Q12 | 1Q13 | 1Q14 | 1Q15 | 1Q16 | 1Q17 | 1Q18 | 1Q19 | 1Q20 | 1Q21 | |||||||
(2) Source: Historical data is from the U.S. Census Bureau; The Value of Construction Put in Place Survey (VIP) provides monthly estimates of the total dollar value of construction work done in the U.S. The survey covers construction work done each month on new | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
structures or improvements to existing structures for private and public sectors. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(3) Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, measured as an | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
repair industry. |
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BlueLinx Holdings Inc. published this content on 03 August 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 03 August 2021 21:53:13 UTC.