PRELIMINARY
Q4 2020 RESULTS
INVESTOR CALL
Frank Appel, Group CEO
Melanie Kreis, Group CFO
Excellence. Simply Delivered.
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KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Record peak season: Q4 EBIT up+56%,Q4FCFof>€1.0bn
2020Guidanceexceeded:
2020 EBIT €4.8bn; 2020 FCF ~€2.5bn
Mid-term EBIT & FCF guidance raised: expect yoy EBIT growth in 2021 & 2022. Cum. 2020-22 FCF above previous upper end ofrange
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Premium TDI Express Shipments/Day, Q4 2020 yoy
~+17%
Parcel Germany
Volume, Q4 2020 yoy
~+23%
Significant peak season ramp-up in e-fulfillment and DeCS activities
for delivering a
record peak season
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Q4 2020: Preliminary Divisional results
in €m | Q4 2020 | yoy | Q4 2020 | yoy | FY 2020 | yoy | FY 2020 | yoy |
Prelim. Revenue | Prelim. EBIT | Prelim. Revenue | Prelim. EBIT | |||||
Group | 19,110 | +13% | 1,960 | +56% | 66,800 | +5% | 4,840 | +17% |
t/o P&P | 4,800 | +12% | 670 | +28% | 16,450 | +7% | 1,590 | +29% |
t/o Express | 5,580 | +20% | 1,040 | +70% | 19,120 | +12% | 2,750 | +35% |
t/o DGFF | 4,380 | +14% | 170 | -2% | 15.910 | +5% | 590 | +13% |
t/o DSC | 3,500 | -3% | 175 | -1% | 12,540 | -7% | 430 | -53% |
t/o DeCS | 1,450 | +33% | 75 | n.a. | 4,830 | +19% | 160 | n.a. |
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2020 summary: Operating EBIT growth of 34%
GROUP reported EBIT of €4,840 includes:
- €-99m asset impairments (Q2 2020) | Underlying | ||
- €-163mone-time bonus payment (Q3 2020) | 2020base | ||
- ~ €-320m StreetScooter | |||
~5,420 | |||
-262 | ~-320 | ~4,840 | |
4,128 | 4,048 | ||
-80 | +34% | ||
growth |
FY 2019 | 2019 One-offs& 2019 excl. One-offs | 2020 Prelim. | 2020 Prelim. | 2020 | 2020 | FY 2020 Prelim. | |||||
Reported EBIT | StreetScooter* | & StreetScooter | Operating | excl. One-offs & | One-offs** | StreetScooter | Reported EBIT | ||||
Performance | StreetScooter | ||||||||||
*2019 One-offs: €+426m DSC China disposal, €-151m DSC restructuring costs, €-80m DeCS restructuring costs, €-115m StreetScooter | |||||||||||
**2020 One-offs:€-163mone-time bonus payment (Q3); €-99m asset impairments triggered by lockdown (Q2) | |||||||||||
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Q4 2020: Capex and FCF overview
All preliminary figures | ||
Gross Capex | Free Cash Flow | |
Q4 2020: ~€1,350m | Q4 2020: ~€1,050m | |
Gross Capex |
FY 2020: ~€3bn |
3,617 |
~3,000 |
Free Cash Flow FY 2020: ~€2.5bn
~1,350 | |
1,045 | |
Q4 2019 | Q4 2020 |
1,163 | ~1,050 |
Q4 2019 | Q4 2020 |
2019 | 2020 |
~2,500 | |
867 | |
2019 | 2020 |
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Cross-check 2020 Guidance: Delivering above EBIT and FCF expectations
in € bn
EBIT | 2020 Guidance | 2020 Preliminary |
Group | 4.1-4.4 | 4.8 |
P&P | ~1.5 | 1.6 |
DHL | 3.3-3.6 | 3.9 |
Corp. Functions | ~-0.7 | -0.7 |
Prelim. Reported EBIT includes:
- €-262mrelated to special bonus payment (Q3, €-163m) & asset impairments (Q2, €-99m)
- One-timecosts related to non-core business (StreetScooter, ~€-320m)
2020 Guidance | 2020 Preliminary | |
FCF | >2.0 | ~2.5 |
Gross Capex | ~2.9 | ~3.0 |
(excl. leases) | ||
Tax Rate | 22-24% | ~24% |
FCF and Capex include ~€320m Express intercontinental fleet renewal (B777) and €-163mone-time bonus payment
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2020: A year of contrasting trends
Structural e-commerce acceleration
Volatile B2B volume development
(TDI shipments per day)
Express B2C growth, Q4 2020
~40%
Express B2C share, Q4 2020
>45%
(TDI shipments per day, yoy)
Q3
Q1
Q2
Q4
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Reminder: DPDHL Group has a unique set-up to serve e-commerce
2019 figures
Domestic delivery | Cross-Border delivery | |
Germany
P&P Germany
>40%
Parcel Market Share
>5m
Parcels per day
>100k
Parcel Business customers
>6,000
Parcel Lockers
1) Status: Q3 2020. 2) Status: YTD 9M 2020. 3) Status: Q4 2020
International | Deferred | |
DHL eCommerce Solutions | ||
11 | Focus |
Countries with own domestic | Non-TDIcross-border |
parcel delivery, t/o 7 in Europe | |
delivery to/from and within | |
(UK, NL, SE, PL, CZ, ES, PT) | |
Europe | |
~4m | European |
destinations served through | |
Domestic parcels per day1 | Parcel Connect platform - via |
own delivery and partners | |
eFulfillment
DHL Supply Chain2
~50% | ~30k |
Growth in eCommerce new | Employees active in eCommerce |
business signings | operations globally |
Premium TDI
DHL Express
~1m
TDI shipments/Day
>45%
Express B2C Share3
220+
countries & territories served with pick-
up and delivery
ODD*
B2C-adapted recipient tool
* On-Demand-Delivery
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2021Drivers: ExpectEBIT growthfor 2021vs underlying 2020base
B2C
Growth continuing from
higher base
B2B
Continued gradual
recovery from H1 2020
trough
Express B2C
Parcel Germany
E-commerce Solutions
Express B2B
Air & Ocean Freight
Supply Chain
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PRELIM. Q4 2020 RESULTS | DEUTSCHE POST DHL GROUP | 12 JANUARY 2021
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Vaccine update: DHL is uniquely positioned to serve global vaccine logistics
Strong DHL healthcare capabilities: global network consisting of >100 air freight LSH competence centers and ~140 life sciences-gradedfacilities
9,000-strong community of Life Science and Healthcare (LSH) specialists
Cooperation and partnership will be key.
The distribution of a vaccine will not fail because of logistics
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Capex Outlook
Expanding capacities in line with strong volume picture
Network capacities highly utilized, esp. in Parcel Germany and Express
Expect continued B2C growth (from significantly higher base) and gradual B2B recovery
Accelerated capacity expansion reflecting stronger than expected growth
Capex outlook: ~€9.5bn 2020-22 cumulative, at upper end of initially expected range (€8.5-9.5)
Includes all capex spend for new Boeing order no further capex spend beyond 2022 on this order
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2022 Guidance raised: Continued EBIT growth Guidance update out to 2023 to come in March
EBIT - NEW
EBIT to grow yoy in 2021 and 2022, from underlying 2020 EBIT base of €5.4bn:
Underlying base EBIT 2020 (€5.4bn) < EBIT 2021 < EBIT 2022
2020-22 cumulative | |
Free Cash Flow | >€6bn (from €5.0-6.0bn) |
Gross Capex | ~€9.5bn (from €8.5-9.5bn) |
(excl. leases) | |
Full guidance update for 2021/23 to come on March 9th
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WRAP UP
Record Group results for EBIT and FCF; mid-term guidance raised
Uniquely positioned to derive profitable growth from continuede-commercegrowth
Momentum to continue in 2021 driven by structural B2C growthandB2Brecovery
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported results nor other historical information. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond Deutsche Post AG's ability to control or estimate precisely, such as future market and economic conditions, the behavior of other market participants, the ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses and achieve anticipated synergies and the actions of government regulators. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which apply only as of the date of this presentation. Deutsche Post AG does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation.
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This document represents the Company's judgment as of date of this presentation.
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Deutsche Post AG published this content on 12 January 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 13 January 2021 08:07:06 UTC