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| 71.15 EUR | +0.85% |
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71.50 | +0.49% |
| Apr. 07 | Oddo BHF suggests Gecina's current share price offers an attractive entry point |  |
| Mar. 24 | Beyond Ormuz (III). Trading Opportunity: Offices. |  |
Projected Income Statement: Gecina
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 613.3 | 625.9 | 666.8 | 694.5 | 712.6 | 723.5 | 740 | 783.3 |
| Change | - | 2.05% | 6.53% | 4.15% | 2.61% | 1.54% | 2.28% | 5.85% |
| EBITDA 1 | 476.4 | 496.5 | 535 | 565.7 | 589.7 | 596.6 | 627.2 | 649.7 |
| Change | - | 4.22% | 7.75% | 5.74% | 4.24% | 1.16% | 5.13% | 3.59% |
| EBIT 1 | 464.6 | 491.5 | 505.3 | 554 | 582.2 | 594.7 | 612.5 | 641.4 |
| Change | - | 5.79% | 2.81% | 9.64% | 5.09% | 2.15% | 3% | 4.71% |
| Interest Paid 1 | -81.86 | -87.14 | -90 | -90.5 | -93.9 | -94.92 | -108.6 | -126.5 |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 852.5 | 171.9 | -1,786 | 311.9 | 452.6 | 557.7 | 629.2 | 689.3 |
| Change | - | -79.83% | -1,138.74% | 117.47% | 45.11% | 23.22% | 12.82% | 9.55% |
| Net income 1 | 849.3 | 169.6 | -1,787 | 309.8 | 448.2 | 646.7 | 712.6 | 925.6 |
| Change | - | -80.03% | -1,153.77% | 117.33% | 44.67% | 44.3% | 10.19% | 29.88% |
| Announcement Date | 2/17/22 | 2/15/23 | 2/14/24 | 2/13/25 | 2/10/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Gecina
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 6,898 | 7,177 | 6,200 | 6,500 | 6,754 | 6,836 | 6,988 | 7,325 |
| Change | - | 4.04% | -13.61% | 4.84% | 3.91% | 1.22% | 2.22% | 4.82% |
| Announcement Date | 2/17/22 | 2/15/23 | 2/14/24 | 2/13/25 | 2/10/26 | - | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Gecina
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 360.7 | 368.8 | 390.5 | 454.7 | 969.8 | 332.2 | 202 | 188 |
| Change | - | 2.26% | 5.89% | 16.42% | 113.3% | -65.75% | -39.17% | -6.95% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | 675.6 | 218.7 | 144.4 | 145.2 | 268.9 | 349 | 516 | 504 |
| Change | - | -67.62% | -33.96% | 0.51% | 85.24% | 29.77% | 47.85% | -2.33% |
| Announcement Date | 2/17/22 | 2/15/23 | 2/14/24 | 2/13/25 | 2/10/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Gecina
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | ||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 77.68% | 79.33% | 80.23% | 81.45% | 82.75% | 82.45% | 84.75% | 82.94% |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 75.75% | 78.53% | 75.78% | 79.77% | 81.7% | 82.19% | 82.77% | 81.88% |
| EBT Margin (%) | 139% | 27.46% | -267.79% | 44.91% | 63.51% | 77.08% | 85.02% | 87.99% |
| Net margin (%) | 138.48% | 27.1% | -268.03% | 44.61% | 62.9% | 89.38% | 96.3% | 118.16% |
| FCF margin (%) | 110.16% | 34.95% | 21.66% | 20.9% | 37.74% | 48.23% | 69.73% | 64.34% |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | 79.55% | 128.96% | -8.08% | 46.86% | 60% | 53.96% | 72.41% | 54.45% |
Profitability | ||||||||
| ROA | 1.93% | 1.99% | 2.32% | 2.67% | 2.49% | 2.71% | 2.99% | 3.07% |
| ROE | 3.08% | 3.19% | 3.81% | 4.5% | 4.25% | 4.66% | 4.51% | 4.42% |
Financial Health | ||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 14.48x | 14.45x | 11.59x | 11.49x | 11.45x | 11.46x | 11.14x | 11.27x |
| Debt / Free cash flow | 10.21x | 32.81x | 42.92x | 44.77x | 25.11x | 19.59x | 13.54x | 14.53x |
Capital Intensity | ||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | 58.81% | 58.93% | 58.57% | 65.47% | 136.09% | 45.91% | 27.3% | 24% |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | 75.7% | 74.28% | 73% | 80.37% | 164.46% | 55.68% | 32.21% | 28.94% |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | 53.38% | 168.63% | 270.38% | 313.18% | 360.61% | 95.17% | 39.15% | 37.3% |
Items per share | ||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | 6.524 | 6.544 | 7.219 | 8.084 | 6.443 | 7.008 | 7.082 | 6.591 |
| Change | - | 0.3% | 10.33% | 11.98% | -20.31% | 8.78% | 1.05% | -6.94% |
| Dividend per Share 1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.45 | 5.5 | 5.631 | 5.771 | 5.776 |
| Change | - | 0% | 0% | 2.83% | 0.92% | 2.38% | 2.48% | 0.1% |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | 175.8 | 172.9 | 143.2 | 142.1 | 142.6 | 145.2 | 151 | 153.1 |
| Change | - | -1.65% | -17.13% | -0.82% | 0.37% | 1.85% | 4.01% | 1.35% |
| EPS 1 | 11.53 | 2.299 | -24.15 | 4.175 | 6.028 | 8.766 | 9.307 | 9.59 |
| Change | - | -80.05% | -1,150.41% | 117.29% | 44.39% | 45.41% | 6.17% | 3.04% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 73,714 | 73,802 | 73,881 | 73,945 | 74,065 | 74,099 | 74,099 | 74,099 |
| Announcement Date | 2/17/22 | 2/15/23 | 2/14/24 | 2/13/25 | 2/10/26 | - | - | - |
| 2026 * | 2027 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E ratio | 8.05x | 7.58x |
| PBR | 0.49x | 0.47x |
| EV / Sales | 16.7x | 16.5x |
| Yield | 7.98% | 8.18% |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
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Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise
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