LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange's (LME)
nickel nightmare continues.
U.S. hedge fund Elliott Management and trading house Jane
Street are suing the exchange for $456 million and $15.3 million
respectively over its handling of the nickel market meltdown in
March.
The LME suspended trading in its nickel contract at 0815 UK
local time on March 8 after the price exploded to $101,365 per
tonne. It also cancelled all trades between midnight and the
market halt.
A legal reaction from aggrieved long position holders was
only to be expected. The LME and its owner Hong Kong Exchanges
and Clearing (HKEx) have dismissed the claims and
"will defend any judicial review proceedings vigorously".
The legal action will be a lawyerly stress-test of the LME
rule-book, particularly the definition of what constitutes an
orderly market.
But this is about more than just money.
The cancellation of agreed trades has broken a cardinal
market rule for many in the investment community. The LME and
British regulators will have to persuade them it won't ever
happen again if they are to return.
LEGAL DEFENCES
The LME's legal defences are at first sight formidable.
Its rule-book grants the exchange wide-ranging powers to act
in "emergencies".
Those powers are exercised through the "Special Committee",
a body established to remove any conflict of interest from LME
market interventions.
Chaired by Phillip Crowson, previously a long-standing LME
director, the "specials" include LME chairwoman Gay Huey Evans,
who also sits on the UK Treasury board, LME Clear board member
Marco Strimer, arbitration lawyer Barbara Dohmann QC and
independent LME director Dr Herta Von Stiegel.
The Committee "may take such steps as in their absolute
discretion they deem necessary to contain or rectify" any
"undesirable" situation.
Moreover, in the event of "a significant price movement
during a short period", the LME can suspend trading and "may
cancel, vary or correct any Agreed Trade or Contract."
As always, the legal devil will be in the detail, for which
we await the LME's own promised "forensic" report into what
happened in the lead-up to the events of March 8.
ORDER, DISORDER
"The LME has undermined confidence in its ability to oversee
markets by failing to perform its regulatory obligations to
maintain an orderly market," according to the Managed Funds
Association, which represents over 140 investment companies.
The LME, for its part, claims it was precisely because the
nickel market had become "disorderly" that it took the action it
did.
"It became clear that pricing in the early hours (of March
8) trading did not reflect the underlying physical market and
that the Nickel market had become disorderly," it said in a
March 10 statement. As such, trades were cancelled to take the
price back to the last point at which the exchange "could be
confident that the market was behaving in an orderly fashion".
However, it is now clear the exchange acted also to avert
what it perceived to be a systemic threat resulting from
participants' inability to meet margin calls on nickel's
explosive price move.
The LME said it "had serious concerns" that margin-call
stress was "raising the significant risk of multiple defaults".
A cascade of defaults from less-well capitalised member
companies would have risked a repeat of the exchange's
near-death experience during the 1985 Tin Crisis.
The most disorderly market of all is one when half the
players have just gone technically bust.
CARDINAL SIN
Many fund managers, however, will take a lot of convincing.
The LME's decision to cancel trades was "utterly,
incomprehensibly wrong", Ken Griffin, chief executive of
investment company Citadel told Bloomberg TV https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-05-19/citadel-s-ken-griffin-on-market-selloff-working-at-home-video.
Griffin, who "didn't have a meaningful position in nickel at
all", warned that "when you interfere with markets on an ex post
basis, it's incredibly destructive to the meaning of markets".
Jane Street seems to agree, telling the Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/cb646552-04c5-4ecf-a720-7521228e2a6c
that the damages sought are "secondary". Rather, it wants to
send a message that it would take action against any
"unreasonable" behaviour by an exchange.
The retroactive cancellation of trades for such like-minded
free-market advocates amounts to a cardinal sin.
March 8 was "one of the worst days in my professional career
in terms of watching the behaviour of an exchange," Griffin
said.
FREE MARKETS
The irony is that the LME has always prided itself on being
a free-market bastion of light-touch regulation, eschewing
position limits, circuit-breakers or fixed lending caps.
The 145-year-old exchange is the epitome of London's
traditional laissez-faire approach to professional, wholesale
trading venues.
The LME's rule-book was written by Alan Whiting, who was
parachuted into the exchange from the U.K. Treasury to clean up
the aftermath of the Sumitomo copper fiasco of the 1990s.
The danger of such a hands-off approach, however, is that a
market may turn so wild that regulators are left behind the
curve in trying to tame it.
Whiting himself conceded that one of the strongest arguments
for automatic intervention "is the difficulty in analysing and
assessing the reasons for and causes of the backwardation or
unusual price movements". ("Market Aberrations - The Way
Forward", 1998)
Any discretionary intervention by an exchange "may,
inadvertently, be mistaken and inappropriate" and even when
"correct" will always be "contentious because there will always
be parties who will consider themselves to have been financially
disadvantaged."
Prescient words but the LME decided against automatic market
constraints at the time and the London trading community has
resisted them ever since.
They are now in place across all the LME's
physically-deliverable contracts and keeping them will be a
minimum requirement for many funds.
The key, according to Citadel's Griffin, is the "necessity
of clarity on exchange rules".
The days of the LME's resistance to pre-emptive, automatic
market intervention look numbered. Indeed, they may already be
over.
What's not in doubt is the urgency of repairing the
regulatory system that resulted in the May mayhem.
Griffin predicted a shift in liquidity to other venues and
"you'll see people drop out of markets".
It's already happening.
LME nickel trading volumes fell by 35% year-on-year in May,
part of a broader 13% decline in trading activity last month.
And Britannia Global Markets has just announced its
intention to relinquish its clearing membership of the LME,
citing "a clear hesitancy of some participants to support the
existing LME market structure."
It will continue to trade metals but on an over-the-counter
basis, a warning sign that liquidity is already on the move away
from the exchange.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters
(Editing by David Evans)